The Baseball Gods

Best of the Best - First Base

2009-03-19T17:37:00.002-05:00

Man, this was tough. Getting down to the best first baseman in the game was actually pretty easy but getting this list down to five finalists was BRUTAL. There are so many good first basemen in the game today that I had a really tough time getting from 10 down to a list of 5.

So, in the build up to the Best First Baseman in the Game I'm gonna list two categories, the "honorable mention" group and the "finalists."

Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder (MIL), Adrian Gonzalez (SD), Justin Morneau (MIN), Carlos Pena (TB) and Mark Teixeira (NYY)

Gonzalez and Teixeira are the best in that group, though Morneau is awfully good as well. Fielder and Pena were clearly 9th and 10th to me.

None, however, were good enough for my Top 5.

Finalists: Lance Berkman (HOU), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Ryan Howard (PHI), Albert Pujols (STL) and Kevin Youkilis (BOS)

Man, that's a really good group. It wasn't easy making cuts here.

First to go was Youkilis because he lacks the big-time home run power of the other guys here. He's an excellent glove man, big-time run producer and one of the most patient hitters in the game but the lack of big-time HR power keeps him just below the others.

Next off the list was Ryan Howard. Great home run hitter and RBI man but the rest of his game is lacking compared to every one else. Actually, the best pure "home run hitter" in the game today but that's not enough to be the best all-around at your position.

Cabera was next to go. He's an amazing hitter, a younger Pujols/Manny type, but his defense isn't great over there given his lack of experience and that keeps him from making the top two.

The final cut was Berkman. He's a hell of an all-around player. Great bat, excellent power, great glove and good on the bases as well. He's just not Albert.

Pujols is easily the best first baseman on the planet. He does it all and he does it all exceptionally well. As difficult as it was to get the list down to the five finalists it was just that easy to come to the conclusion that Pujols was #1 on the list.

Honestly, I don't see anyone disagreeing with this selection.

Thoughts?

KW

USA, USA, USA!

2009-03-18T01:20:00.003-05:00

Wow, what a comeback win by the good ol' U.S. of A last night in Miami...

You would have thought those guys won the World Series - better yet the Little League World Series - the way they dogpiled after David Wright's game winning hit. That was pretty cool.

Best Team USA win since they took Gold in the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Makes up for that ugly 11-1 drubbing at the hands of Puerto Rico the other day, too.

Now they get a chance to replace some of their walking wounded on the roster and they'll need every single body they can get for the final round.

Who says the American players don't care about the World Baseball Classic?

Those boys sure looked like they cared last night.

KW

Best of the Best - Catchers

2009-03-17T18:18:00.006-05:00

Who is the best player in baseball at each position?

Tough question, no doubt, but it's something I've been kicking around with some friends and it made for some great debate. Okay, it led to some arguments, but it was fun...

To me, the best player at a given position needs to be the best all-around player, not just dominant in one area or another. For example, to me Mike Piazza was never the "best catcher in the game" because he was deficient on defense.

I'm looking for the balance of all things in position players - hitting, hitting for power, speed, fielding and throwing. In pitchers I'm looking for consistency and ability to dominate opposing hitters.

In other words, these guys need to do things other players at their position can't do.

I'll give you my choices, along with finalists, and you're welcome to do the same in the comments section...

Today it's the catchers:

Finalists: Russell Martin (LAD), Joe Mauer (MIN), Brian McCann (ATL), Yadier Molina (STL), Geovany Soto (CHC)

That's a tough group to choose from. They're all well-rounded players with leadership skills in addition to their game skill. Here's how I whittled it down:

Martin was the first to come off the list. He's not as good a hitter - to me - as Mauer, McCann or Soto and he's not as good a defender as Molina.

The next one off the list was Molina. He's the best defensive catcher in baseball and he has made strides offensively but he lacks the power and patience of Mauer, McCann and Soto.

Next off my list is McCann. Another excellent player but I don't like his defensive game as much as I like Mauer's or Soto's.

The last cut - Joe Mauer. Too many injuries and not enough power when compared to Soto.

Soto hits for a solid average, he hits the ball over the wall, he drives in runs, he draws walks and he's a strong defensive player as well. He's not a Gold Glover but he's good behind the plate and he can flat out hit.

Now, I realize that Soto is still young and hasn't done it for a long stretch but that's not the point of this discussion. I'm talking about a one-year setting, 2009, as things stand right now.

Right now I think Geovany Soto is the best all-around catcher in the game.

What do you think?

KW

Tweaking the WBC

2009-03-15T18:26:00.003-05:00

I really like the World Baseball Classic.

It's not the greatest baseball competition in the world but at a time of year when I'm jonesin' for some competitive hardball it'll do. I enjoy the emotion, the passion and the competition.

All that said, the setup is far from perfect.

I'd love to see MLB move this game to the Fall, playing in it in the weeks that follow the World Series. Here's why:

1. The players are all in shape, ready to go at 100% capacity and if someone does get hurt they have until March to get themselves ready for the following season.

2. You won't have to have innings or pitch limits, making the whole thing more like "real baseball" than exhibition baseball. We're only talking about 2-3 extra starts for SP's and only a handful more appearances for RP's so it's not like they're going to "wear down."

3. Players on teams who are not in the MLB post-season could work out together, creating a little of the in-game chemistry that a country like Cuba has.

There are potential problems with this idea, like the fact that free agents could sit out so they don't get hurt and going up against football, but those problems aren't as great as the ones that exist as things are right now.

Heck, teh WBC is going up against March Madness now. At least football is primarly played on Saturdays and Sundays.

Let's set this thing up in the Fall, play the games in Puerto Rico, Florida, Arizona, California, etc. and let the games be played more like the real thing.

KW

Mailbag - How are the Cubs better than the Cards

2009-03-12T19:48:00.002-05:00

That's the question posed to me by "anonymous" (aren't anonymous posts the greatest!)...

Rather than re-state the question, here it is:

"Anonymous said...

How exactly are the Cubs better than the Cardinals? I'm awfully tired of seeing people write that and hearing people say it. It's BS!! Let's do a comparison. I don't have time to do every play, but..."

Anonymous went on to do his position-by-position analysis, which is was hysterical. I highly recommend reading it here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/03/baseball-gods-2009-power-rankings-as-of.html#comments

Anyway, since the question was asked I'll go position-by-position and explain exactly why the Cubs are better than the Cards and why everyone in the baseball universe thinks so...

C. Yadier Molina vs. Geovany Soto

Molina is the better glove man, though not by a heck of lot. Soto is pretty good with the leather. Offensively, they're not even close. Molina had a decent average but his .741 OPS was pedestrian. Soto posted an .868 OPS in part because of his 26 HR.

Edge Cubs

1B. Albert Pujols vs. Derrek Lee

Lee's a nice player but not in Albert's league. Easy one...

Edge Cards

2B. Skip Schumaker/??? vs. Mike Fontentot/Aaron Miles

We don't even know who is gonna be playing 2B for the Cards. The Schumaker Experiment is losing some steam and nobody will be all that excited by Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston or Tyler Greene there.

Even if Skip wins the full-time job he'll be easily the worst defender of the group and his bat is no better than Fontenot's and Miles give the Cubs the reliability the Cards had last year.

Edge Cubs

3B. Troy Glaus/Joe Mather vs. Aramis Ramirez

How could this not be an edge for the Cubs? Glaus is gonna miss April after shoulder surgery and who knows when he'll be "right" physically? Plus, even if Glaus is healthy, Ramirez is the better player. He's more consistent at the plate, hasn't been as injury prone and isn't a horrible fielder.

Glaus is better with the glove but his throwing arm is the one that needed surgery. I'll take 6 months over Ramirez over 1 month of Mather and 5 months of Glaus.

If Glaus is 100% this is close but Ramirez would still get a slight edge.

Edge Cubs

SS. Khalil Greene vs. Ryan Theriot

I'm not a huge Theriot fan but he's a .290 career hitter and is much more consistent at the plate than Greene is. Brings an element of speed that Greene doesn't have as well. Greene has more power and is a better defender so I think that levels things out a bit.

Since I think Greene is better than is '08 numbers show I'll call it a draw.

Even

LF. Chris Duncan/Colby Rasmus vs. Alfonso Soriano

Come on, now. This is easy. In two years maybe it won't be because I'm a "Believer" when it comes to Rasmus, I think he's the real deal. But for now Soriano is the proven star here.

Duncan figures to play a ton if he's healthy and since he's even worse than Soriano defensively I'd say the Cubs win this matchup. Soriano has 7-straight seasons with at least 28 HR (he had 29 HR last year despite missing a ton of games) and he topped 30 in 5 of those seasons.

Duncan can hit, but not like that. Rasmus has even more raw talent than Soriano but hasn't done it at the big league level.

Edge Cubs

CF. Rick Ankiel vs. Kosuke Fukudome

I'll take Ankiel, no problem. Better power, best OF arm in the game and he's capable of more than we've seen from him.

Edge Cards

RF. Ryan Ludwick vs. Milton Bradley

This has to be a draw. Ludwick has only done it one year and Bradley, with all is problems and injuries, is an incredibly gifted player. I trust Ludwick more but Bradley is the better all-around talent.

Even

SP. Chris Carpenter vs. Carlos Zambrano

Okay, Big Z has had some arm problems but not like Carp, who has made 1 start in two years. When they're both 100% they're equals but Zambrano is the safer bet between them entering '09 because he's pitched more.

Edge Cubs

SP. Adam Wainwright vs. Ted Lilly

This is a very tough matchup. Lilly is a very underrated, consistent starter. That said, I like Wainwright better. Lilly is what he is but I think Wainwright is still getting better. I'll go with the big righty.

Edge Cards

SP. Kyle Lohse vs. Ryan Dempster

Another tough one. Both were excellent last season - and Dempster was the better of the two - but neither has proven themselves as a consistent Major League starter. It's a draw.

Even

SP. Todd Wellemeyer vs. Rich Harden

Now, I love Wellemeyer. He's a heck of a pitcher and could get better this year but Harden is easily the more gifted of the two. Harden is an injury risk, no doubt, but even with that I can't give the Cards the edge here because when he's right Harden is a dominator. Wellemeyer is really good, just not as good as Harden.

Edge Cubs

SP. Joel Pineiro vs. Sean Marshall/Aaron Heilman

Pineiro can't be trusted, simple as that. He's been erratic virtually his entire career. Marshall is still a bit of an unknown as a big league starter and Heilman has been a reliever of late but I'd trade Pineiro for either one of them.

Edge Cubs

CL. Ryan Franklin/Josh Kinney/Jason Motte/Chris Perez vs. Carlos Marmol

Marmol was easily the most dominant pitcher of any in that group the last two years. He's a stud, plain an simple. Motte and Perez both have stuff to rival Marmol but they don't have two years of proving it at the Major League level. Neither Franklin nor Kinney can match Marmol's stuff. Kevin Gregg is a decent insurance policy for Marmol too.

Edge Cubs

BP. Cards bullpen vs. Cubs bullpen

Aside from the 9th inning I think these two teams are even. They both have depth and a combination of hard throwers and plain ol' good pitchers. Not much to differentiate these two in the pen.

Even

Cards Manager/Coaches vs. Cubs Manager/Coaches

I'll go with a slight edge to Tony LaRussa and his staff but it's not a huge difference. Lou Piniella is a good manager with a solid staff.

Edge Cards

So, by my "tale of the tape" the Cubs have the edge in 9 spots, the Cards have the edge in 4 spots and the two teams are even in 4 spots.

With good health the Cardinals can definitely give the Cubs a run for their money in '09 but they have more question marks than the Cubbies do.

Oh yeah, and the Cubs were 11.5 games better than the Cards last year.

Even if the Cubbies drop off by a couple of games do the Cards gain 8-10 wins over '08?

Could be but that's a lot of ground to make up.

There, that's why I have the Cubs ahead of the Cards in my Power Rankings.

You asked, Anonymous, and I answered...

KW

The "Miracle on Turf"

2009-03-10T21:32:00.002-05:00

I'm shocked.

Floored.

Flabbergasted.

The Netherlands just eliminated the Dominican Republic from the World Baseball Classic in the 1st round...

Wow.

This game surely doesn't have the socio-political impact of the "Miracle On Ice" in Lake Placid, NY but it is certainly one of the biggest upsets I can think of.

A team of has-beens and never-weres - whose best hitter is remember more for his hit on a racing sausage than for his big league career - beats a collection of Major League All-Stars TWICE in four days to eliminate them from a tournament Team Dominicana cares deeply about.

Unreal.

These players from the Netherlands may not be Mike Eruzione, Jim Craig, Mark Johnson or Ken Morrow but they are certainly national heroes now.

Randall Simon?

Eugene Kingsale?

Yurendall de Caster?

Some dudes named Schoop, Stuifbergen and Duursma take out a powerhouse loaded with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz Miguel Tejada, Pedro Martinez, Robinson Cano, Jose Guillen and some of the best arms in the big leagues?

Amazing.

Gotta love the WBC...

KW

Measuring Defense w/ Statistics - No Thanks

2009-03-10T12:34:00.003-05:00

I really admire the work that people like John Dewan and Bill James do. They are pioneers in the world of baseball analysis and they, along with countless others, have helped change the way "baseball people" go about their business.

That said, I haven't found a single defensive statistic that I find terribly useful.

I love the concept behind Dewan's Plus/Minus system (http://www.fieldingbible.com/) but there are still too many things that are not quantifiable enough for me to buy into it completely. I also think some of Dewan's new "Defensive Runs Saved" concepts are interesting, yet unconvincing.

I should point out, right off the top, that to my knowledge Dewan doesn't promote either of these stats as "Be All, End All" of defensive evaluation.

The problem is that these things are all subjective, relying completely on the evaluations/decisions made by people watching video of Major League games. Even if those people are "baseball people" (former coaches, scouts, players, etc.) we're still talking about subjective analysis. "Baseball people" don't always see things the same way, afterall.

Now, defensive statistics are better than they used to be and maybe someday Dewan, James or some other forward thinker will have a break through and get it down pat. The problem, however, is there are too many defensive factors that simply cannot be measured.

Positioning, for example.

Let's say Player A has better physical ability than Player B. Quicker feet, better balance, stronger arm, more accurate arm, etc. If they're both in the same pre-pitch spot on the field Player A can make plays that Player B cannot.

On the other hand, Player B is a more "heady" player. He's more up to date on the tendencies of opposing hitters - and perhaps his team has more accurate scouting reports - and therefore he's in the correct position more often than Player A.

Player B could be making "routine" plays all the time because he's in the right position while Player A makes "excellent" plays, in part, because he's not in the best pre-pitch position.

Simply put, there is more to being a strong defensive player than physical skill. Preparation, anticipation and instinct are all significant factors in a player's ability to field his position and none of those factors are quantifiable.

Is the player in the proper pre-pitch position based on scouting information? Is he in tune with how his team is planning on pitching to the opposing hitters? Is he anticipating the play pre-pitch based on these factors?

Does the player throw to the right base consistently? Is the player a "heads-up" or "head in the clouds" kind of guy? Does he get into the proper relay position? Does he hit the cutoff man? How does he play the ball off the wall?

Is the player "saved" by his fellow defenders (like Mark Grace saving Shawon Dunston's butt all the time) or is he the one doing the "saving?"

I just don't see how anyone can place a numerical value on these things. They are bits of invaluable information when it comes to a player's ability to field his position and they are also immeasurable. You can see them with your own two eyes if you know what to look for, which most hardcore baseball observers do, but I just don't see how you can quantify it.

There are other more tangible factors that are not factored in, at least not to my knowledge or satisfaction...

1) Actual velocity of the ball hit (not just a generic term like "soft" or "hard" hit ball, actual MPH - any hitter will tell you, there is a distinct difference between 90 MPH and 95 MPH and when watching the game on video that difference won't be noticeable on a ball put into play)

2) The condition of the field (wet or dry, shorter grass or longer grass, etc. - it's not like every big league field is exactly the same)

3) Variation in spin/bounces (every ball hit is a little different - a "routine" ground ball right at a fielder isn't necessarily "routine" as some balls "kick" or "bite" at the last moment based on how they were hit)

4) Trajectory (was the ball hit at a 45-degree angle, 60-degree angle or 75-degree angle? did it have backspin or topspin? was the ball cutting or slicing? I need more detail than a simple "fly ball/line drive" label)

5) Conditions (sunny w/ a big sky? cloudy? windy? raining? twilight? shawdows? those are all factors in how plays get made, especially difficult plays)

All of those things are "known" factors but they cannot be easily converted into a number. Without those pieces of information nobody can come to an accurate conclusion about the quality of a player's defensive game. Maybe some of that evens out over the course of a 162-game season but not all of it does.

The aforementioned defensive statistics can be helpful when it comes to filling in the blanks on some players when people just don't have the time/ability to judge for themselves, but they're just not complete enough for me to value them over scouting information.

There is just no logical way to turn pages and pages of scouting information into a number. Even though "real" scouts use the 1-8 scale to grade players' physical ability (which I don't much like either) it is included in a detailed report that provides some of the nuance/detail I wrote about above. Plus, most of the "tools" scouts are grading can be measured - velocity on throws, bat speed, 60-yard dash time, home-to-first time, etc.

What all of these defensive statistics come down to, essentially, is a human being assigning a number to a play based on his own subjective analysis. In that sense, defensive statistics are no different than the subjective analysis in a scouting report.

Defensive statistics cannot provide the type of detail a written or spoken-word report can.

Then again, the defensive statistics themselves aren't the real problem.

It's the people who use them improperly - replacing detailed professional analysis with a number - that are probably at the root of my frustration....

KW

The Baseball Gods 2009 Power Rankings (as of March 7)

2009-03-06T22:38:00.002-06:00

Here's how I see things right now. Lots can change between now and Opening Day and I will update the Power Rankings again just before the regular season starts as part of my preview/predictions for 2009.

Comments welcome...

1. Red Sox - Bullpen gives them the edge over the Yankees
2. Yankees - Even with the potential loss of A-Rod the Yanks are still loaded
3. Phillies - World Champs might be better than they were in '08
4. Cubs - Sure, they have questions but they also have the most talented team in the NL
5. Angels - Love the addition of Abreu, gives them an OBP guy to go with the Free Swingers
6. Dodgers - With Manny in the fold from Day One the Dodgers are an elite NL squad
7. Mets - If Santana's elbow becomes a problem the Mets slip on this list by Opening Day
8. Rays - They should be even better than '08 if someone takes charge in the 9th
9. Indians - Bullpen is better and I expect rebound years from Carmona & V-Mart
10. Diamondbacks - Offense may be erratic but pitching is very good
11. Twins - Somehow they always find a way to hang in there
12. White Sox - Could be a team that slips in by April 6 depending on bottom of rotation
13. Cardinals - Could move up or down by Opening Day; so far things look okay
14. A's - Love the additions of Halladay and Giambi; they could move up
15. Tigers - They'll hit the ball for sure but their pitching will dictate where they finish
16. Braves - Not enough offense and too many pitching questions; could slip in the rankings
17. Marlins - Love the young talent here; could be a sleeper
18. Brewers - Like the Tigers of the NL; plenty of offense, not enough pitching
19. Blue Jays - They're just a little short on both offense and pitching
20. Giants - Great pitching, not enough offense; finally seem headed in right direction though
21. Astros - Pitching is horrible after Oswalt; they'll hit if they're healthy though
22. Rockies - Like the Blue Jays, just a little short all-around
23. Reds - Love the move toward athleticism but don't see enough run production
24. Rangers - Another team that can mash that's lacking in pitching
25. Orioles - Only one legit starter but I like the move toward young, athletic hitters
26. Royals - Not buying the buzz that they could be better this year. How?
27. Nationals - Pitching will come along but they still have more questions than answers
28. Pirates - Don't like their offense at all and pitching staff is loaded with enigmas
29. Mariners - Some good young pitchers for sure but lineup stinks out loud
30. Padres - Not enough pitching + not enough hitting + not enough defense = worst in MLB

KW

Programming Note

2009-03-05T17:31:00.003-06:00

Just dropping in a little somethin-somethin to let you know that I'm making a change in how I do things here...

I'm cutting off the 2009 Power Rankings team profiles and doing the same for the Top 100 Prospects individual profiles because they just take too damn long to do, plus they're like War and Peace.

Based on time restrictions with my real job, and on advice from lots of friends (in and out of the sports media business), I've come to the decision that a lot of short posts with timely observations will work better than a smaller number long posts that take a lot more time to write and read.

From here on out things will be of the more quick-hitting variety. I'll post the full 2009 Power Rankings next up and save the details for responses to comments/e-mails.

E-mail if you ever have questions, comments, opinions, suggestions, etc.

KW

thebaseballgods@gmail.com

2009 Power Rankings #20

2009-02-26T19:31:00.002-06:00

( #'s 21-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

20. San Francisco Giants

If these guys had a couple more proven, veteran run producers in the middle of the order they be more of a sure thing as a contender in the NL. They'd also be higher on this list...

The pitching looks just fine, thank you very much, but they'll need some kids to have strong offensive seasons if they're going to make a push for the playoffs. Things are going to be interesting in San Fran this summer.

LINEUP

According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected starting lineup:

C. Bengie Molina
1B. Travis Ishikawa
2B. Kevin Frandsen
3B. Pablo Sandoval
SS. Edgar Renteria
LF. Fred Lewis
CF. Aaron Rowand
RF. Randy Winn

Wow, not a lot of pop there. They will put the ball in play, however, and they have a couple of guys who can run so they'll have to scrap and claw to score runs.

Molina isn't an elite hitter but he did drive in 95 runs last season and figures to bat cleanup again this year. Bengie's still a heck of a glove man, too. Ishikawa is a very interesting player. The 25 year-old hit .299/.377/.578 (24 HR) at Double-A and Triple-A combined last season, with the bulk of that coming at the higher level. Could be a sleeper as an emerging hitter this year, though he's not a big upside guy. I'm not buying Frandsen as an everyday player at 2B, just not enough offense for this team. I suspect Emmanuel Burris (a real burner) and Eugenio Velez will get plenty of time there as well. Sandoval is a very interesting guy. He hit .350/.394/.578 in the minors last season and then .345/.357/.490 in 145 big league AB's. Was a catcher in the minors (and could still see occasional action behind the dish), played 1B for the G'men last year and now moves to 3B. Renteria has always been a better player in the NL than in the AL but I don't trust him. Cold weather seems to bother him and SF isn't exactly tropical early or late in the season.

Lewis emerged as a solid Major League outfielder last season. Not a home run guy but does hit doubles and triples, plus he'll take a walk and can swipe a bag here and there. Rowand was a disappointment last season and needs a bounce back season. I don't think it's fair to expect him to hit 25 HR but he does need to kick the average up to the .300 range and drive in some more runs. Winn has always been a nice, solid player but would be a better fit on a team with more pop in the rest of the OF. The good news for him as that the Giants don't have other options ready to push him.

Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and Nate Schierholtz are bench guys who could see somewhat regular playing time if they get hot.

There are some more young hitters on the way as well. C Buster Posey seems to be the heir apparent to Molina, a catcher with big offensive upside. 3B Conor Gillaspie is a good hitter who could be a factor as well, especially if Ishikawa and/or Sandoval struggle. Further down the road is power-hitting prospect 1B Angel Villalona - he's 2-3 years away.

PITCHING

According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected rotation and their closer:

1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez

This is an excellent rotation. Lincecum, the '08 NL Cy Young Award winner, is as good as there is in the game today. Don't let Cain's 8-14 record last year fool you, he's a stud. Every team in baseball would take him in their rotation. Johnson was 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 K's in 86 IP after the All-Star break in '08. He's still got it, it's just a matter of how many innings he'll be able to go. Zito was actually not terrible after the break last year (6-5, 4.59 ERA) and if he does that for all of '09 this team will really benefit from it. Sanchez was erratic in his first full season as a big league starter last year but his stuff is electric (157 K in 158 IP) and he's still only 26.

The team also has Noah Lowry on the outside looking in and recovering from arm problems. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Sanchez for a bat at some point, if Lowry is healthy of course.

Another reason why the team might be willing to move Sanchez - and maybe Cain down the road as well - is that they've got a couple of high-end pitching prospects on the way. 20 year-old Tim Alderson figures to start this season at Double-A, so he's close. The 6'6" right hander is very polished and pretty much dominated the hitter-friendly California League as a teenager last season. 6'4" lefty Madison Bumgarner is a year behind Alderson but he's a good one (15-3, 1.46 ERA and 164 K/21 BB in 141 2/3 IP at Low-A in '08). He could see Double-A as a 19 year-old in '09.

CL. Brian Wilson

Wilson had 41 saves last season but I don't trust him. His control is erratic and he posted a scary 4.62 ERA in '08. He just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy who throws in the mid-to-upper 90's. Maybe he gets better this year but I'm still not 100% sold.

Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt will be the top setup man and leading candidates for saves if Wilson struggles. Sergio Romo posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 Major League games last season and he should also have a significant role.

OVERVIEW

There is a chance, with good health, that the Giants could push for the NL West title this season. They'd need a breakout performance or two on offense - or a trade of pitching for hitting - but they're a lot closer to being where they want to be now than they were just a year ago.

KW

2009 Power Rankings #21

2009-02-24T12:10:00.002-06:00

( #'s 22-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

21. Houston Astros

If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.

Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."

All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.

LINEUP

According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence

My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.

Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.

Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."

David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.

There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.

PITCHING

According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler

Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.

The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.

The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.

CL. Jose Valverde

Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.

OVERVIEW

The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.

The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.

KW

2009 Power Rankings #22

2009-02-19T17:39:00.002-06:00

( #'s 23-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

22. Colorado Rockies

It's hard to believe the Rockies fell as flat as they did in 2008. Okay, maybe it's not. Maybe they just went on a ridiculous run in a weak division and just stayed hot until they ran into the buzz saw that was the Boston Red Sox.

Fluke or not, the Rockies have taken a step or two back and are now in "building" mode. That is not the same as "rebuilding" mode, which is a bit worse.

There are some pieces to work with but they need a few guys to bounce back and be productive at the plate, plus they need a pitcher or two to become much more consistent. The news got worse today on the pitching front as the team will lose lefty Jeff Francis for the season to shoulder surgery.

LINEUP

According to the Rockies' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Chris Iannetta
1B. Todd Helton
2B. Clint Barmes
3B. Garrett Atkins
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Seth Smith
CF. Ryan Spillborghs
RF. Brad Hawpe

Iannetta is a player I like quite a bit. The only question about him right now is whether or not he can do in 500 at-bats what he did in 333 AB in '08 (.895 OPS, 18 HR). I think he can.

Helton is a major question mark even if he's healthy, which is certainly no guarantee. That said, I think the Rockies have enough players that can help fill in at 1B that they'll be okay here unless Helton struggles and Clint Hurdle plays him anyway. Jeff Baker and Joe Koshansky can play 1B, plus the team could shift Garrett Atkins over and play Ian Stewart at 3B.

I don't know what to make of Barmes as an everyday player. He has ability and can play his position but I don't look at him as a "known" commodity for '09. Atkins is a proven hitter who I expect to keep producing good numbers. Don't see any major improvement or decline from him this season. I really think Tulowitzki is going to have a strong bounce-back season in '09. He'd better, otherwise the Rockies will be in big trouble. Expect something along the lines of what he did in '07.

Boy does that outfield look weak without Matt Holliday. Seth Smith listed as the starter in LF? That's gotta be a typo. I'd sooner try Stewart or Baker out there just to get their bats in the lineup. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlos Gonzalez out there. Maybe even Ryan Spillborghs, currently set to start in CF, if Dexter Fowler emerges in CF. Obviously Brad Hawpe is just fine in RF, I'd say expect more of what you've already seen from him.

I have to believe that the outfield by the end of 2009 will be Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe. I just don't think Spillborghs is an everyday player, nor is Smith. Maybe Matt Murton is a sleeper in LF, but even that's a bit of a stretch if you ask me.

As for the prospects to look for, well, Gonzalez and Fowler are about it for this year. None of the team's other offensive prospets - unless you still count Koshansky - are ready for prime time just yet. I think Gonzalez and Fowler can both be impact players, so if the team isn't in contention this year I'd recommend getting them a lot of playing time.

PITCHING

According to the Rockies' official website, here is their projected rotation and closer:

1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge De La Rosa
5. Greg Smith

That's actually not a bad group of starters, to be honest. Cook has turned into a solid Major League starter who pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground and therefore in the ballpark. Jimenez has a world of ability, he just needs to throw strikes consistently. Easily the best stuff on the team and the highest upside - also keeps the ball in the park, but unlike Cook strikes people out too. I'm not sure I understand where Marquis is going to be of much help to the Rocks. He's too inconsistent. Maybe they just want innings from him. De La Rosa has talent - and misses plenty of bats - but again, too inconsistent. I could do without him. Smith is okay, though I'm worried about his home run tendencies (21 HR in 190 1/3 IP in '08 in a pitcher's park). K-to-BB ratio not great either. Worth giving a shot, though.

Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsch and Greg Reynolds could also figure into the mix. I really like Morales and Hirsch - if they're both healthy I think they'll make a lot of starts for the Rockies in '09. They have higher upside than guys like Marquis and De La Rosa.

CL. Huston Street/Manny Corpas

Both pitchers are listed as "closers" on the team's website, but I have to think Corpas gets the first shot unless Street has an amazing spring. The best thing for the franchise, however, might be to have Street close to start the season and perform well, thus enhancing his trade value. Corpas is a little better right now, IMO.

Taylor Buchholz is an excellent setup man who I think has the stuff to close if necessary. Alan Embree is a decent lefty.

Right hander Jhoulys Chacin and left hander Christian Friedrich should come along pretty quickly over the next season or two. They're both extremely talented, though Chacin has more upside to me. Casey Weathers may be the closer of the future - he's got great stuff but needs to refine his command.

OVERVIEW

This franchise isn't an a terrible place, they're just in what appears to be a transition year. Their only chance at really doing anything this season would be to have several young guys emerge along with Helton having a resurgent season. If the team doesn't think Gonzalez is ready to play in LF, I'd advise trying to find at-bats for Baker and Stewart.

The best news for '09? The Padres will keep the Rockies from even having a chance at finishing in last place. I do think the future is relatively bright in the Mile High city.

KW

2009 Power Rankings #23

2009-02-16T15:31:00.002-06:00

Before I get started, just wanted to let you know that all my posts this week are originating from Cardinals Spring Training camp in Jupiter, FL. I'm down here covering the Cards for my real job at KMOX and loving every minute of it...

Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.

( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

23. Cincinnati Reds

You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.

Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.

They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.

LINEUP

According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce

Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.

The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.

As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.

PITCHING

According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:

1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings

Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.

The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.

CL. Francisco Cordero

In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.

David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.

As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.

OVERVIEW

The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.

KW

2009 Power Rankings #24

2009-02-15T12:53:00.004-06:00

I've decided to remove the "early" part of the Power Rankings title because at the rate I'm going this won't be done "early" afterall.

Now, back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings...

( #'s 25-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

24. Texas Rangers

As usual, the Rangers have a pretty good looking everyday lineup and a questionable pitching staff. They've got some kids coming along here in the next year or two that could balance out the pitching end of the spectrum, but that's not likely going to help much in 2009.

As I said with the Orioles, however, this is an organization that appears to be in the beginning stages of righting the ship. They have some incredible, high-end offensive talent, a farm system that is improving and some bad pitching contracts that are getting closer to their expiration dates.

2009 could be a "stepping stone" year for this franchise and I'm very curious to see how some of their "situations" shake out.

LINEUP

According to the team's official website, here are the Rangers' projected starters:

C. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B. Chris Davis
2B. Ian Kinsler
3B. Michael Young
SS. Elvis Andrus
LF. David Murphy
CF. Josh Hamilton
RF. Nelson Cruz
DH. Hank Blalock

That is a lineup with a lot of offensive ability. If everyone's healthy this could be one of the five highest scoring teams in baseball, especially when you consider where they play their home games.

Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter behind the dish but with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez also in the mix you just never know. I think Salty has the highest overall upside of the three players but that's just me. Tegarden is better defender than Salty, but I like Salty's offense better. Ramirez may be a better pure hitter than Salty, but I like Salty's defense better. In short, Saltalamacchia is the best all-around catcher they have. I also think he's going to have a breakout season if they just stick with him from Opening Day through the end of the season. Teagarden and Ramirez would both make for good trade bait.

Davis is a masher at 1B and looks like a guy who will hit a lot of home runs for a long, long time. I'm a fan. Kinsler may be the game's best all-around 2B. He does it all and gives this team a distinct edge over others because of the offense they get from a position that doesn't always deliver production. Young accepting the move over to 3B was huge because it makes them better defensively. He's not a bad SS, it's just that Andrus is better at SS than Young and Young is more gifted defensively than Blalock or Davis. Plus, Young's a good bat. Andrus is the question mark in the infield but I think he'll be fine if they stick with him. His glove is a plus, he's got good speed and is a stolen base threat, plus I think he can develop some pop. Andrus looks like a future All-Star to me.

Hamilton is the best all-around player on the team and one of the 5-10 best all-around players in the game. I expect Hamilton to be an MVP candidate year-in and year-out moving forward, barring injury of course. He's a flat out stud. Murphy is a nice player in LF but I don't see a lot of upside there. He does a lot of things well, though, and is a very useful player. Cruz has all kinds of offensive potential but this is a make-or-break season for him. After mashing in Triple-A last year he carried that production to the Major League level at the end of the season. If he hits, he plays. If not, see ya later Nelson.

Marlon Byrd gives the Rangers and excellent 4th OF option. He can play all over the outfield, he's got a little pop and he runs well. The sleeper in the mix is Andruw Jones, invited to camp on a minor league deal. If he hits at all during Spring Training the Rangers will have to make room for him somehow. Jones picked the right spot to rejuvenate his offensive career - no place is more hitter friendly these days than Arlington. If Andruw has an impressive spring, I'd bet on him taking over in CF with Hamilton sliding over to RF and Murphy/Cruz forming a LF platoon. I wouldn't bet the house on Jones, though. His problems have all been in his head and that's something that's tough to break out of.

Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Arias, German Duran and Brandon Boggs are around as well. The one that is most interesting is Arias, who could wind up at SS if Andrus struggles.

Most of the Rangers' best offensive prospects were covered above and none of the rest figure to have any impact in the Majors this season. 1B Justin Smoak is a big-time hitter but he was just drafted in '08. OF Julio Borbon is a speed demon but I don't see how he fits in any way this season. OF Engel Beltre is 2-3 years off but he's a 5-tool talent who could be a star eventually.

PITCHERS

1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy

This is where things start to turn the wrong way.

I think Millwood would be a decent 4th or 5th starter on a National League team but he's not lasting as deep into games as he used to and doesn't miss enough bats either. Padilla isn't awful but he's also more of a 4th/5th starter on a decent team because he's too erratic. He also happens to be vastly overpaid. To me, Feldman is just not a Major League starting pitcher. His strikeout to walk ratio stunk last season, he gives up too many hits and would be better off working out of the bullpen. Harrison has some ability and is probably capable of being a decent 4th/5th starter this season but he doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter. McCarthy intrigues me. He only made 5 starts for the Rangers last season but if he's healthy he could be another decent 3-4-5 starter. Not a high-end guy, though.

Jason Jennings (if healthy), Dustin Nippert and Kason Gabbard could also factor into the mix. I've always liked Nippert as a potential 3-4-5 starter and I think the team would be better off with him in the rotation and Feldman in the bullpen. Jennings has done some nice things in the past while pitching for the Rockies but his ability to stay healthy is a major question mark. If he is able to pitch, I suspect we'll see quite a bit of Jennings in the big leagues in '09.

CL. Frankie Francisco

Francisco was the Rangers' best reliever last season and it's interesting to see him listed ahead of last year's closer C.J. Wilson. I don't trust Francisco all that much, but he is tough to hit against and he strikes a lot of people out. While Wilson did convert 24 of 28 save chances last season, he also showed me that he's not a Major League closer. He allows to many hits and too many walks to be handling the 9th inning. If a 6.02 ERA doesn't tell the story I don't know what does. The fact that his ERA was 2 runs lower (4.50 compared to 6.55 vs. right handers) tells us something - he's a setup man.

Eddie Guardado joins those two and he's probably the best fallback option to close if Francisco struggles. Nobody else in the pen gets me very excited to be honest. Josh Rupe, Luis Mendoza, Warner Madrigal and Derrick Turnbow are talented pitchers but I don't trust any of them.

As far as pitching prospects go, that's where the Rangers really have some horses. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are both potential #1 starters. Holland is a lefty that can reach the upper 90's with his fastball, Feliz is a righty than can do the same. I think it's a safe bet that we'll see both in a Rangers uniform sometime in '09 and possibly for good come '10. Martin Perez, Michael Main and Blake Beavan should be watched as well.

OVERVIEW

The Rangers lack of front-end starting pitchers and the lack of many proven commodities in the bullpen are the factors holding this team back. Their everyday lineup is good enough to be a contender but they need kids like Feliz and Holland to emerge, plus they need someone to establish themselves as a closer.

Team President Nolan Ryan seems to have things headed in the right direction. Right now they just have to hope that the pitching prospects are as good as advertised. If so, the Rangers could contend in the West in 2010.

KW

Audio Blog - Ranting on media "roid rage"

2009-02-12T19:01:00.002-06:00

Here's a short segment from my radio show (Sports Open Line) on KMOX in St. Louis from this week.

This is a rant about baseball writers on their soap boxes about how "guys like A-Rod" are ruining baseball history.

My take?

Well, let's just say my opinion is a little different than that of the fellas riding on White Horses...

http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3458034

I'll be in Jupiter, FL covering Cardinals Spring Training from M-F of next week and will be chiming in w/ more audio then as well...

KW

Everyone to blame for MLB steroid mess

2009-02-12T13:33:00.004-06:00

"I never heard about it."

That's what Bud Selig had to say back in February, 2005 about steroid use in baseball in the 90's and early 00's.

That's right, the man in charge of a professional sports league had no idea what was going on under his nose. He was also still the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers during that time and is a self-proclaimed baseball fanatic. Loves the game, watches all the time.

And he didn't know anything? He never got word from his scouts, his General Manager or anyone else that something funny was going on around the game?

You know what's really scary?

I believe him.

That's because NOBODY talked about steroid use publicly. The Commissioner didn't. The owners didn't. The General Managers didn't. The coaches and managers didn't. The "clean" players didn't. Heck, even retired coaches, managers, players, scouts and front office executives kept the mouths shut.

They're all guilty.

The weight of this scandal is not solely on the shoulders of home runs hitters like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez.

What about all the cheating starting pitchers who recovered better from start to start, had their "A-game" more often and had the stamina to maintain a high level of performance deeper into games?

What about all the cheating relievers who recovered faster from day to day, had their "A-game" more often and had that extra 2-3 MPH they needed to finish a batter off late in a game?

What about all the smaller, speedy defensive types who were able to stay healthier longer, keep their legs fresher and perhaps chase down a handful of baseballs they otherwise wouldn't have gotten to?

The fact of the matter is that the ENTIRE GAME was compromised as was anyone who was a part of the game in any way, shape or form. That includes people like me who work in the media, by the way.

I'm tired of late-coming hypocrites like Roy Oswalt blasting A-Rod from afar while he had cheaters in his own clubhouse all this time. Where is his anger for them? Where was this bile when it comes to Roger Clemens?

Is it only wrong if some guy you don't like gets caught?

Everyone's to blame and to go deeper than that is foolishness. Leadership failed, the union failed and the media failed.

Seems pretty simple to me.

Today Selig told the Associated Press that A-Rod had "shamed the game."

Yes he did.

But he had a lot of help from other cheaters, co-conspirators and enablers.

You fit in there somewhere, Mr. Commissioner.

KW

Thinking Out Loud - Feb. 11, 2009

2009-02-11T16:04:00.003-06:00

Adam Dunn to the Nationals

According to the reports he's getting a 2-year deal and the team's website is reporting that Dunn will take over as their everyday first baseman, leaving Nick Johnson as a candidate to be traded or released.

I like this move for the Nationals for a number of reasons:

1. He's automatically their biggest HR threat
2. He gets on base a ton, which will create some RBI opportunities for the guys behind him
3. He's a "name" player that should get the Nats some much desired positive ink
4. Even with his imperfections, Dunn is a known commodity on team full of "ifs" and "maybes"

They say he'll hit 4th, which is fine (though a case could be made he'd be better off in front of Zimmerman), and I suspect he'll put up numbers like he always does.

Dunn's not the best ballplayer in the world but he has two tremendous offensive skills that set him apart from most other ballplayers...

Bobby Abreu to the Angels

GREAT move. G-R-E-A-T.

Abreu is a pretty nice upgrade over Garret Anderson and he comes at a reasonable price.

His power numbers have declined a bit the past three seasons but then again so had Anderson's. The biggest differences between Abreu and Anderson are on-base percentage and on the base paths.

Abreu has a .405 career OBP and has never walked fewer than 73 times in a full Major League season. By comparison, Anderson has a .327 career OBP and has never walked more than 38 times in a big league season.

Abreu has seven 100-RBI seasons (including six in a row entering 2009) and has eleven straight seasons with at least 19 SB's (20+ in each of the last ten seasons. By comparison, Anderson has had just four 100-RBI seasons and has reached double digits in steals only twice (the last time coming in 2001).

Abreu, while not the defender he once was, is clearly a better defensive player than Anderson as well.

This is a big upgrade for the Angels - the best in the West just got better.

Other teams seeking OF help

I guess the Dodgers don't have a good fallback option for Manny now that Dunn and Abreu are gone. Maybe this pushes the two sides toward a deal. Without Manny, the Dodgers lineup is looking awfully lean...

Guess the Braves have to work a trade now.

Cards might have some OF depth to move but they'll only do it for a starting 2B like Kelly Johnson or some serious pitching help (Mike Gonzalez?). Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton and Joe Mather are all contending for OF spots in STL. Ankiel or Ludwick would be most attractive to the Braves, I assume.

Been rumors about those two getting together before...

Blue Jays sign Kevin Millar

M'kay, not sure I see how that makes much of a difference for the Jays.

Millar is okay but he's not exactly going to send them over the top.

2009 Power Rankings #25

2009-02-10T15:33:00.006-06:00

Back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings - #'s 26-30 can be found in the Blog Archive, FYI...

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

25. Baltimore Orioles

This is a team in transition that seems to finally be turning the corner a bit after spending too many years chasing it's own tail.

The pitching isn't there at the moment but I like the direction they went in the outfield - young and athletic - and I think a couple of their pitching prospects are going to be ready to contribute soon.

Peter Angelos has spent good money after bad for a lot of years now, trying in vain to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. Apparently the team is starting to understand that's not the way to go. The O's aren't some "feel sorry for me" small market club, they have the ability to generate cash and they have a rabid fan base, but for years they've just gone about things the wrong way. Hiring Andy MacPhail was the best thing this team has done for a long time.

I don't see the O's being this far down in the Power Rankings in a year or two, that's for sure.

LINEUP

According to the Orioles' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters
1B. Aubrey Huff
2B. Brian Roberts
3B. Melvin Mora
SS. Cesar Izturis
LF. Felix Pie
CF. Adam Jones
RF. Nick Markakis
DH. Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton

First of all, it would be fantastic for this team if Matt Wieters wins a spot on the Major League roster this season. He is an amazing talent and has a chance to be an All-Star caliber catcher for many years to come. I love Wieters' game and sincerely hope Zaun serves as a mentor/backup to him rather than as the primary starter. The 6'5" switch-hitter with power from both sides has an offensive game not seen in many catchers.

Aside from the 2007 season, Aubrey Huff has been an excellent Major League hitter. He averages 25 HR and 87 RBI per season over the last 7 years and he'll take a walk as well. Roberts is the straw that stirs the drink for the O's - he's an excellent leadoff man/spark plug. The team does have a tough decision to make on him going forward though. Do you give him big bucks in his 30's to stick around as a veteran to lead the kids or do you move him for more kids? I'd lean toward keeping him. Melvin Mora isn't terrible but he is very streaky, which would make him expendable in my book. Izturis is all glove, no bat. The O's knew that and only signed him to help out the pitching staff.

Keep in mind that the team has also signed Ty Wigginton. He can play 1B-2B-3B-LF-DH for the O's, so I expect him to get a lot of at-bats as an "everyday utility man." He's no stud but I think he's a bigger asset than Kevin Millar was last year.

In the outfield, the O's plan is for youth to be served. I think the Cubs gave up way too early on Pie and if the O's are patient they will be rewarded for it. Pie has great speed and a little pop, plus he's an outstanding defender. Jones is player I expect to take a step forward in '09. His offensive numbers were less than stellar last season but I think he'll double his home run total. Markakis is an outstanding young player who should be an All-Star on a pretty regular basis going forward. He does it all and he does it all well. In fact, I think Markakis is a franchise player.

Luke Scott will probably be the DH against right handers, something he should be good at, with Wigginton probably sliding in there against lefties. Scott has power but he's streaky and didn't hit lefties at all last season. Luis Montanez has an intriguing bat as a bit of a late bloomer so we'll see if he factors into the mix during Spring Training.

I liked the addition of Ryan Freel as well. He can play the infield and the outfield, plus he brings both speed and energy to the lineup whenever he's in there. Outstanding bench player.

Aside from Wieters, only one other Orioles' prospect should be knocking on the big league door this season. OF Nolan Reimold appears to have the physical tools to be a productive hitter but the 6'4" right handed hitter was left sitting at Double-A all last season despite being 24 and having a solid season. A strong start at Triple-A combined with a slow start in the big leagues for Pie could earn Reimold an opportunity to move up.

PITCHING

Once again referring to the Orioles' official website, here's how the rotation is shaping up:

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Mark Hendrickson
3. Koji Uehara
4. Rich Hill
5. Chris Waters

Ugh. Only Guthrie is a proven big league starter in that group. I like him a lot and think he's got a long career ahead of him as a good Major League starter but it doesn't look like he's going to get much help to start '09.

Hendrickson doesn't belong anywhere near a big league mound, at least not as a starter. Why anyone would give him a shot at a rotation spot is beyond me - he's had one decent season in the Majors (2006) and 5 bad ones. I have no clue what Uehara will be nor does anyone else. He may be a useful big league starter and he may be a bust. I'd bet he's a decent 4th/5th starter. Hill is very talented and I like the idea of grabbing him off the Cubs' scrap heap. He's a strikeout guy who can be a 12-15 game winner if he just throws more strikes. Waters is just "filler" to me - a 28 year-old with just 64 2/3 mediocre Major League innings under his belt.

Matt Albers, Danys Baez and Radhames Liz could also be a part of the mix early in the season. Albers was decent as a reliever last year and has a good arm - I'd choose him over Hendrickson or Waters. Baez has a good arm as well and the team owes him a fair amount of money, so maybe they'll find a way to make it for him in the rotation. Liz has a fantastic arm, reaching the upper-90's, but his control is bad and his secondary pitches aren't any better. Liz looks like a reliever to me. Troy Patton would be in the mix but he's coming off a shoulder injury and that scares me.

Long term, however, the picture is much brighter. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all potential frontline starters at the Major League level and they're coming on fast. Tillman and Matusz could both be factors in '09, in fact I think they're better right now than at least 2/5 of the projected rotation. Arrieta isn't far off those two either.

CL. George Sherrill

Let me say this right up front - George Sherrill is not a Major League closer. He's a quality reliever, don't get me wrong, but he shouldn't be closing for a big league club. Sure, he had 31 saves last season but there's a reason he was getting his first chance to close at the age of 31. Sooner or later he'll be replaced.

If he's healthy, Chris Ray would be the logical choice to move back into the role he once had. Ray had Tommy John surgery and missed all of the '08 season but guys usually come back from TJ surgeru pretty well and he's just got better closer's stuff than Sherrill.

Eventually the job may belong to 6'9" Kam Mickolio, who had a nice season in the minors last year, but that doesn't seem likely for the start of 2009.

OVERVIEW

I haven't said these words in a long, long time but I think the O's are finally on the right track.

Markakis and Wieters are the offensive cornerstones of this franchise and guys like Guthrie, Tillman and Matusz should be the same in the rotation before much longer.

If the O's really want to go all the way they'll trade Mora and/or Roberts before the end of the '09 season and complete their re-tooling process. Even Huff could be spared if he brings the right player(s) in return.

By 2010 these guys could be a factor again, but not in '09.

KW

A-Rod makes the right call

2009-02-09T15:47:00.002-06:00

He's not going to be spared much criticism but Alex Rodriguez did the right thing by admitting his past steroid use in an interview with ESPN's Peter Gammons today.

Nothing he can say or do will erase the memory of this but by admitting to a mistake, getting into the details regarding when and why he did it, he's going to get ahead of the story.

Instead of having people constantly hounding him for answers, now all he has to deal with is the anger sure to be leveled at him by baseball fans across the country. A-Rod wasn't exactly the most popular guy around before this so it's not like he was going to be greeted with enthusiasm anyway.

His daily routine will now be relatively unchanged.

I'm actually a bit surprised that he did the right thing here but maybe he learned from the mistakes made by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. If you deny-deny-deny you're only going to encourage people to take you on.

You know what's strange? I actually believe his story.

He told Peter Gammons that he took steroids beginning when he arrived in Texas, fresh off signing the richest contract in baseball history. He says the pressure to live up to expectations pushed him toward the 'roids.

It's not a valid excuse but the explanation does fit his personality.

If you ask me, A-Rod has some self esteem issues and he always needs to be "perfect."

You can see that in his appearance, his personal life (dumping his gorgeous wife for Madonna? dope), his manner of speaking and in his game.

Believing his explanation is not the same as excusing actions, by the way.

He deserves whatever consequences there are for this whole debacle.

It's his fault afterall.

KW

A-Rod & 'Roids - 3B not the only "bad guy" here

2009-02-07T20:26:00.004-06:00

First of all I want to make one thing perfectly clear:

Assuming this story about A-Rod's positive steroids test is true, he's an idiot who deserves every ounce of scrutiny and/or criticism he will receive. He deserves every last line of type, every bile-filled epithet from fans and every bit of the doubt that is certain to come his way.

There's another side of this story that I'd like to touch on, however.

The leak.

These tests were meant to be confidental and non-punitive per the agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLPBA. Now, some of these tests were looked at because of the BALCO trial and I presume the sources for this latest story are from the U.S. Attorney's office.

Maybe that's wrong on my part but neither the union nor MLB want to see a guy like A-Rod "outed" so I think I'm pretty safe in assuming the leak is coming from someone prosecuting the Bonds and/or BALCO cases.

Keep in mind that these records are supposed SEALED UNDER COURT ORDER, meaning that it is illegal to disclose the contents of said records.

In other words, somebody broke the law just to throw A-Rod under the bus.

Maybe Rodriguez deserves to be dashed under a Greyhound but that doesn't change the fact that someone leaked sealed information to reporters from Sports Illustrated.

The reporters aren't to blame, nor do I believe they're doing anything wrong in reporting what they've been told.

I do have a problem, however, with government officials leaking sealed information for the sole purpose of providing someone with a juicy story.

If you're leaking sealed/confidential information to uncover corporate fraud, government waste or any other activity that could harm the general public in any way, shape or form then I'm all for it.

I'm not okay with it when all you're trying to do is push a juicy story about a star athlete.

Even if that athlete deserves to have his name dragged through the mud.

KW

Oh Sheets

2009-02-05T12:54:00.003-06:00

No wonder Ben Sheets hasn't signed with the Rangers yet...

MLB.com is reporting that Sheets has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and might need surgery.

This isn't some minor thing, a torn flexor can mean a lot of time on the disabled list and that's the last thing Sheets needs at this point.

This presents an interesting dilemma for Sheets and for any team that was/is interested in signing him: what do you do?

There would appear to be two choices:

1) Sheets sits out until he's healthy and then signs a contract
2) Sheets finds a team willing to sign him to 2-year deal with the first year basically guaranteeing nothing and the second year having a low base salary with a huge incentive package based on innings pitched and/or starts.

I'd take a shot on Sheets under that 2nd scenario as long as I wasn't giving up a ton of money. Maybe $1 million for '09 to allow him to rehab in my team's system (maybe a bonus or two if he's on the playoff roster - assuming the team reaches the playoffs) and then a $3 million base for '10 w/ incentives that could bring his earnings up to $12-14 million.

Too bad for Sheets. He's a stud who could really help a team at the front end of the rotation.

UPDATE: Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated is now reporting that Sheets will have surgery and that Sheets hopes to return in July or August. My thoughts on Sheets remain the same.

KW

TBG Top Prospects 81-90

2009-02-03T18:23:00.002-06:00

Prospects 91-100 can be found here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tbg-top-prospects-91-100.html

The entire Top 100 can be found (in list form only, no reports) here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html

The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (81-90)

90. Jake McGee, LHP (Rays – b: 8/6/86)

This is a bit of a strange selection, I admit, because McGee will probably miss 2009 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given the success rate with Tommy John guys and given McGee’s upside I think it would be a mistake to write him off. He’s a big, hard throwing lefty who had 553 strikeouts in 485 minor league innings before having surgery. At worst he’ll be a power lefty out of the pen along the lines of Matt Thornton or maybe even B.J. Ryan.

89. Eric Hosmer, 1B (Royals – b: 10/24/89)

With a little more time to develop Hosmer should be a Top 10-20 prospect in the not-too-distant future. The 6’4” left handed hitter has a ton of power and projects as a strong defensive player as well, I just have a little trouble rating 19 year-old with 3 pro games under his belt in the Top 50. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm – wonder why he’s not an OF instead of a 1B? – and the Royals are certainly looking forward to watching him develop.

88. Dellin Betances, RHP (Yankees – b: 3/23/88)

With some improvements in his command, Betances will start to move up the ranks in leaps and bounds. The 6’8” 245 pound right hander has a dominant fastball that reaches the upper-90’s and his breaking ball is solid as well. If he can develop a third quality pitch he’ll have a career as a starter, if not he’s got enough heat to be a lights-out closer. Getting a good read on pitchers this tall who throw hard isn’t easy – when you think about how much closer their release point is to home plate compared to someone 6-8 inches shorter you begin to get the idea. The ball just explodes on hitters.

87. Greg Halman, OF (Mariners – b: 8/26/87)

Halman had a strong season in ’08, showing both power and speed while splitting the season between High-A and Double-A despite not turning 21 years-old until the end of August. In fact, Halman was nearly a 30-30 guy (29 HR, 31 SB) and his .854 OPS was more than respectable. With the Mariners seriously lacking in big time production in their outfield a guy like Halman could arrive at any time as long as he gets off to a good start to the season.

86. Michael Inoa, RHP (A’s – b: 9/24/91)

Yep, that’s a “91” in his birth date. Inoa is still just 17 years-old and has event come close to a pro diamond yet but guys with his measurables get ranked anyway. He’s an athletic 6’7” who is not at all awkward, according to reports, and his fastball already reaches the mid-90’s. Word on the street is that Inoa also has a nasty split-finger fastball as well. Eventually we’ll find out about his command and endurance but in terms of raw pitching ability very few prospects are even in his league. May be the #1 overall prospect in the game in couple of years.

85. Nick Adenhart, RHP (Angels – b: 8/24/86)

His reputation took a big dent in ’08 after he got knocked around both at Triple-A and in the Majors but it should be pointed out that he reached the Majors before his 22nd birthday. Adenhart isn’t a strikeout pitcher – and never will be – but he’s still a guy that should be a successful big league starter. Don’t give up on him yet, he’s not done developing.

84. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP (Brewers – b: 9/21/87)

Personally, I think Jeffress projects as a closer. Walks are a problem at this point in his career but he’s got a fastball that has reportedly touched 100 MPH and he didn’t turn 21 until the end of September ’08. He needs some work for sure but his upside is tremendous. Jeffress has a curve and a change that could develop into very good pitches. In fact, the development of those pitches will probably determine what his future role is – if those pitches are strong, he’s a starter.

83. Gaby Sanchez, 1B (Marlins – b: 9/2/83)

I really like Sanchez as an offensive player and there’s a chance he could be the Marlins’ starting first baseman this season. He hasn’t shown a ton of HR power but I think there are 20-25 HR’s in that bat going forward, plus he’s a patient guy who walked as often as he struck out last season. As an added bonus, Sanchez also swiped 17 bags in ’08. Now 25 years-old, his status as a “prospect” is pretty much limited to this season. He’s either a big leaguer or a tweener at this time next year.

82. Jemile Weeks, 2B (A’s – b: 1/26/87)

Jemile is the switch-hitting little brother of Rickie Weeks. He’s not a power guy like Rickie but he is a very good offensive player who projects as a leadoff man. Jemile does have some gap power and does a good job of working the count, something the A’s certainly value in his game. Right now he’s a 2B but if he has defensive problems going forward he could easily handle CF with his speed. I suspect he’ll advance quickly as long as he doesn’t have injury problems.

81. Engel Beltre, OF (Rangers – b: 11/1/89)

Beltre is still raw and needs refinement but the tools are certainly there. Spent the entire ’08 season playing in the Low-A Midwest League as an 18 year-old and while his numbers aren’t all that exciting at first glance (.283/.308/.403) they’re not bad when you consider a lot of guys his age were playing Short Season or Rookie ball. He has plenty of speed already and looks like he’ll develop power as his body fills out but he will need to work on his pitch selection (105 K/15 BB w/ 566 AB in ‘08) to maximize his offensive ability.

KW

Thinking Out Loud - Feb 3, 2009

2009-02-03T11:40:00.004-06:00

Manny turns down the Dodgers

Now that Manny-Boras has turned down the Dodgers 1-year, $25 million deal it's time for the Dodgers to move on. They can snag 2-3 really good players for that much money so I'd stop waiting and get back to work.

I think Bobby Abreu would be a great fit. His consistency would be incredibly valuable for a team with so many young players. Adam Dunn would be okay too, but he's too streaky for what they need.

Abreu is Manny-Lite. He has less HR power but gets on base just as well, has plenty of HR/RBI ability and, unlike Manny, Abreu is a good base runner and plays a decent RF.

If the Dodgers sign Abreu and someone like Randy Wolf that would be a solid move.

Abreu to ChiSox?

NY Daily News is reporting that the White Sox have made a 1-year offer to Abreu. The only way that makes sense is if Kenny Williams is planning on turning around and dealing somone like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye.

Konerko's defense is needed at 1B (compared to that of Thome), so it wouldn't be him. Plus, he wouldn't bring much of a return at this point.

Thome's not exactly at the peak of his career and also wouldn't fetch much.

With Dye we have a whole offseason's worth of rumors to fall back on, plus he's a free agent at the end of the year. They could get something of value for him and I'd bet on him being the one who gets moved.

So, who needs a middle of the order outfielder?

Angels, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Reds, Mets. Maybe a couple of others on the fringe.

Would be a nice move for the Dodgers if they can't just sign Abreu themselves. Going by Williams' history, I assume he would be targeting young pitching. Dodgers, Giants and Reds can help there.

Playing at The Cell would be good for Abreu. It's a nice hitter's park so he could put up some numbers and then re-enter free agency again next offseason.

Where does Dunn end up?

I don't know the answer to that question - could be any number of places between Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles.

What I do know is that Dunn should be the guy the Braves pursue hot-and-heavy right now. They need a productive OF and if you throw Dunn into the mix with Chipper, McCann & Co. you've got a very nice middle of the order.

He's not the perfect ballplayer but the Braves need offense and he can supply it, especially when surrounded by guys who are more consistent than he is. Plus, the Braves could get him on a 1-2 year deal.

Pull the trigger, fellas.

KW

Early 2009 Power Rankings #26

2009-02-02T11:29:00.004-06:00

Back to the TBG Early 2009 Power Rankings - #'s 27-30 can be found in the archive for January...

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

26. Kansas City Royals

Like a lot of teams ranked near the bottom of the TBG Power Rankings, the Royals confuse the hell out of me. We all undertand that they have financial limitations and I think any logical person who follows baseball will give them the benefit of the doubt in that regard.

Those limitations, however, do not explain the oddball moves this team makes on a year-to-year basis. They waste a lot of the money they have available on mediocre, middle-of-the-pack players who are easily replaceable.

Why spend money on guys who are not difference makers when you have limited resources?

I'll get into detail on that subject as we go through the projected lineup and rotation further down the page but I've already touched on that subject on this blog with the piece I did about their catching situation called "This is why the Royals are the Royals":

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/this-is-why-royals-are-royals.html

The team is doing some good things - and I'll be sure to credit them for those things - but there are still far too many strange decisions made on a pretty regular basis...

LINEUP

According to the Royals' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Miguel Olivo/John Buck
1B. Mike Jacobs
2B. Alberto Callaspo
3B. Alex Gordon
SS. Mike Aviles
LF. David DeJesus
CF. Coco Crisp
RF. Jose Guillen
DH. Billy Butler

Since I've already addressed the catching situation at the above link, I'll keep my comments on that subject brief. Why in the world would a team with limited resources pay two catchers nearly $3 million each to be the SAME PLAYER. Buck and Olivo are the same guy - good pop, terrible contact skills and decent defensively. I don't get it.

First base is another spot I just don't understand. Mike Jacobs is a decent player and certainly an everyday big leaguer but why the Royals wanted him is beyond me. First of all, they have to pay him somewhere between $3.05 and $3.85 million this season to play a position that could be manned by a younger, cheaper player with more upside. What would have been wrong with playing Kila Ka'aihue there? Kila's cheaper, has big-time power and he actually knows how to draw a walk, something Jacobs isn't especially familiar with. I just don't get why teams like the Royals block talented young players with below average veterans, which is what Jacobs is. Compare him to the other starting 1B's in MLB and tell me he's not in the bottom 10.

Second base is also a bit of a mystery, though I like what I'm hearing about giving Mark Teahen a shot there in Spring Training. He doesn't have enough power to be a regular at 1B, 3B, LF or RF but if he can handle the position his bat would be okay for a regular 2B. As of now the team has Alberto Callaspo listed as the starter but he's more of a utility man to me.

Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon are solid at SS and 3B, respectively. I'm not sure Aviles is as good as his '08 numbers indicate but entering '09 he's a solid choice. Might be better suited at 2B long term, but we'll see. Gordon needs to step it up at the plate and in the field this season. He was drafted with the idea that he'd be a cornerstone player for this franchise long-term and while the ability is certainly there the consistency has not been. I'm feeling optimistic about him for '09, however, and think he'll have a breakout season.

What's up with this team paying veteran backups a couple million a season? Are Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million) and Ross Gload ($1.9 million) really worth that money to this team? Nothing against either guy, they're both serviceable Major Leaguers, but this team simply cannot afford to pay that much to backups. They'd be better off investing that money in prospects from the Dominican every year or on their draft picks. They've been a last place team with guys like them and they can be a last place team without them.

The outfield isn't horrible, it just isn't all that exciting either. David DeJesus hasn't developed as the Royals had hoped and while he's a decent player he's pretty much average across the board and not "special." He's better than their other options in the OF but he's not what the team hoped he would be. Coco Crisp is okay as well but they'd be better off with just one of those two guys rather than both - I'd pick Coco over DeJesus because of his speed. Crisp wasn't a bad pickup, I'm just not sure he's worth $5.75 million to this club. Jose Guillen is the most talented of the bunch and can be a productive hitter - when he feels like it. The problem with Guillen is that he suffers from "turd-itis." Good player, bad guy.

As far as offensive prospects go, I'm not all that excited about anyone not named Kila, at least not for 2009. I really think Ka'aihue is going to be a good player, a power hitter that will get on base as well. Not sure why the team blocked him heading into '09. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer look like excellent long-term hitting prospects but the Royals are looking at 2010 or 2011 before they'll be an option.

PITCHING

Once again, referring to the Royals' website:

1. Gil Meche
2. Zack Greinke
3. Brian Bannister
4. Kyle Davies
5. Luke Hochevar

That's actually a decent group of starters. Meche has turned out better than I thought he would when the Royals gave him that contract and the team certainly deserves credit for that move. He may not be a true #1 starter but he's proven himself to be a good pitcher and the team needs him badly.

I'm a big fan of Zack Greinke and think he'll continue to improve upon what he did last season. I also love the fact that Dayton Moore got Greinke locked up long-term - great move. This guy is their ace going forward.

I think Brian Bannister is better than his '08 numbers indicate but he's more of a 4th/5th starter on a good team. Still, he's not a bad option. Kyle Davies is very talented and started to "get it" toward the end of '08 - he could be the 2009 version of what Todd Wellemeyer was in 2008, the guy who has always had talent and finally combines performance with opportunity. Luke Hochevar has the ability to be this team's second or third best starter in the not-too-distant future, barring developmental problems. I liked what I saw from him in spots last season.

Brandon Duckworth and Horacio Ramirez are also possibilities for the rotation, especially if Hochevar and/or Davies have a poor spring. Not a fan of either, to be perfectly honest, but they're serviceable. Not sure why the Royals thought Ramirez was worth $1.9 million since he hasn't been very good since 2005 and even then he was only mediocre. More on that in a bit...

CL. Joakim Soria

This guy is nails. Love everything about him. He's got great stuff, excellent make-up and he's young. Also, brilliant move by Moore getting Soria locked up long-term - he's under team control for the next 6 years (3 years guaranteed, 2012-2014 at the team's option). Much respect to the Royals for how they've handled Soria.

The rest of the bullpen is okay but not spectacular. I didn't like the Ramon Ramirez-for-Coco Crisp deal at all and I don't think Kyle Farnsworth is a guy I'd give $9.25 million to over two years. Ron Mahay is okay, so is Jimmy Gobble, but I think they have more depth than quality.

There are some pitching prospects on the way and I think that's something for the Royals to be excited about. Carlos Rosa, Daniel Cortes, Blake Wood, Danny Gutierrez, Julio Pimentel are all getting close and eventually guys like Tim Melville and Mike Montgomery will starting making some noise as well.

OVERVIEW

Despite some of the goofy moves this team makes at the big league level, there is reason for Royals fans to have hope for the future. The farm system is getting better and some of those guys are developing pretty rapidly.

Here's a question for you: What if the Royls hadn't made the following moves?

* Trading Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp ($5.75 million)
* Signing Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million for '09) - could have kept Ramirez in that role
* Signing John Buck ($2.9 million) to complement Miguel Olivo
* Signing Ross Gload ($1.9 million) to a 2-year deal before '08
* Signing Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million)
* Signing Horacio Ramirez ($1.9 million)

Had they not made those moves they could have saved $18.1 MILLION. Given what has happened with the free agent market (guys like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu still looking for work), the Royals could have landed an IMPACT PLAYER, which is exactly what they so desperately need.

Hell, you could probably land Abreu for two years with that $18 million right now.

Plus, you wouldn't even notice the other guys were missing.

That's what I'm talking about, fellas. Stop wasting money on fringe players, backups, utility guys and inconsistent veteran relievers and save that money for IMPACT PLAYERS. Use minimum wage guys for the bench and save the money for the everyday players.

KW

Pujols to Cards - Give Manny a call

2009-01-29T20:42:00.002-06:00

According to an AP report on Thursday, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols says he'd like his club to bring Manny Ramirez to St. Louis.

http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/F380F9628A1A931D8625754E00020A4B?OpenDocument

That would be one hell of 3-4 punch now wouldn't it?

Pujols even suggests Manny might offer up a discount to play for the Cardinals...

Yeah, right.

One problem - Cards GM John Mozeliak shot the idea down Thursday night...

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090129&content_id=3784024&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

There are two reasons Manny still hasn't signed with anyone:

1. He's asking for too much money for too many years
2. He's a head case

Even though the Cardinals aren't going to make a move like this, there is a way the Cardinals could pull it off on a 1-year contract without breaking the bank, though it would take a little creativity and a lot of guts.

They'd have to find teams that would be willing to trade for Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, which shouldn't be all that difficult despite the fact that both are currently facing arbitration hearings. They're not that expensive, even if they win, and there are several teams looking for some pop in the outfield (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle just to name a few) who might be willing to give up decent, cheap young talent for those guys.

Those moves would save the Cards about $7 million and they're already on pace to be about $7 million below their 2008 payroll of $99 million, so that would mean they'd only need to raise payroll by about $6 million over '08 to add Manny at $20 million for one year.

Now, I realize it's not my money and I'm not suggesting the Cardinals should do it, I'm just saying they could do it without demolishing the team's short term financial goals. Plus, in this rough economic climate the Cards do have the advantage of hosting the All-Star Game this season.

Even if they were to move Ludwick & Ankiel to fit Manny into the OF they'd still have Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather and Colby Rasmus to fill the other two spots with Jon Jay not far from being ready to jump into the mix.

Even if bringing Manny in would be a cost-neutral move, which it would not be, there are other issues to resolve as well. Ramirez doesn't exactly fit Tony LaRussa's "Hard Nine" mentality.

Keep in mind, however, that LaRussa said he'd welcome Barry Bonds in a Cardinals uniform in the past, so maybe he'd be willing to overlook some of Manny-being-Manny to have that Hall of Fame bat backing up Albert.

It's not gonna happen but it sure is fun to think about the possibilities....

KW

What is Varitek thinking?

2009-01-29T17:52:00.003-06:00

I want to make one thing perfectly clear about this post - I am not ripping Jason Varitek. I have the utmost respect for him as a player and as a leader, plus as a guy who at one time donned the "tools of ignorance" I've got a soft spot for catchers.

In fact, back when I was warming the pine for the Miami Hurricanes we played Georgia Tech in a weekend series in Atlanta and the two catchers were Jason Varitek and Charles Johnson.

Needless to say, there were a lot of scouts there that day...

Anyway, back to Varitek.

Like a lot of players, Tek is having a difficult time coming to grips with his changing place in Major League Baseball. I know he feels like his contributions merit a certain level of respect (a.k.a salary) but he turns 37 in April, his offensive numbers have been in a deep decline the past three seasons and there just isn't the demand for his services there would have been two years ago.

Just sign with the Sawx and get it over with.

Tek has already made a lifetime's worth of money and it's unlikely he'll ever be without a good paying job given that he could probably name his own career after he retires (future manager, broadcaster, etc.).

His best - and perhaps only - option is to sign with the Red Sox. Take what they are offering and be done with it. There is no reason to push this any further.

They need him, he needs them.

Seems pretty simple, doesn't it?

KW

Thinking Out Loud - Jan 28, 2009

2009-01-28T15:52:00.000-06:00

Garland signs w/ D'Backs

Very nice signing by Arizona and at a very fair price. They get a guy who is a workhorse and now they have three of those 200-inning guys in their 5-man rotation (Webb & Haren being the other two), plus Davis and Scherzer.

Not bad.

I really like Garland in the NL and think his ERA drops 0.50-0.75 just by switching leagues. No DH and lots of games in pitcher's parks (LA, SD, SF).

He's not a star but he'll be an effective NL starter.

Cubs-Mariners trade

Aaron Heilman goes to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.

Heilman wants to start and the Cubs will give him a chance, which is odd because I'm not sure he's a better candidate to start than Sean Marshall. Maybe he winds up back in the bullpen, which wouldn't be terrible except for the fact that he wasn't entirely happy in that role in NY.

Why give up on Cedeno? Good bat, can play all over the infield and he's cheap. Decent pickup for the M's, should be a helpful bat off the bench.

Olson was a nice pickup for Seattle as well. Now if they can just find a way to unload Batista, Washburn and/or Silva that would be gravy. Good luck with that fellas....

Kind of a blah deal that doesn't do much for me either direction to be honest.

Tigers sign Lyons

What do teams see in Lyons that I'm missing?

This guy has never proven he can be a good closer over a full season and yet teams keep trying him in that role. He's a setup man, plain & simple.

If Fernando Rodney comes out throwing strikes he's a better option than Lyons.

If Joel Zumaya is 100% healthy he's a better option too.

Leyland needs to go with the guy who's pitching the best and not stick with the older guy (Lyons) like he did w/ Todd Jones....

KW

TBG Top Prospects: 91-100

2009-01-27T16:55:00.002-06:00

My first post on this blog was my Top 100 Prospects list and when I posted that I promised a little more detail for each of the players, so today I'm beginning the process of putting the rankings out there along with comments on each player.

As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html

Comments and questions are welcome.

Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.

Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html

And away we go...

The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)

100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)

Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.

99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)

I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.

98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)

Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.

97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)

Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.

96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)

Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?

95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)

Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.

94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)

Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.

93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)

Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.

92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)

Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.

91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)

Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.

KW

Thinking Out Loud - Jan 26, 2009

2009-01-26T12:06:00.003-06:00

Teams missing the boat on Pudge Rodriguez

With the handful of horse-blank catchers out there who have "starting" jobs, Pudge can't find a gig at a discount price? I don't get it.

Even what he did last year (.276, 7 HR, 10 SB in 398 AB) is WAAAAY better than what most catchers provide, plus he's still one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Not what he used to be, but still very good.

Here's a guy who has 8 million Gold Gloves, a better bat than most catchers even if he is in decline and he's ticked off that nobody will give him a shot...

Give me an angry, motivated Pudge Rodriguez any day.

Paging the Florida Marlins...

Paging the Houston Astros...

Richie Sexson worth a shot?

Depending on what kind of contract terms he's looking for, I'd take a shot on Richie Sexson.

I've had some people tell me they think he lost his power after baseball got more serious about steroid testing but I'm not buying that. If that were the case he might have lost some power but his ability to make contact wouldn't have been affected. At 6'8" 240 pounds he could still generate plenty of power without juicing.

Something's up with his swing, his health or his head.

If it's his health - like a bad back or something - then it's going to be tough for him to turn things around, but players can rebound from the other things.

My prescription - tell him to forget about power for the time being, get back to centering up the ball and making consistent contact and then the home runs will come.

When you're as big as Sexson is, there's no reason to fixate on the long ball. They'll come if you get the barrell of the bat to the ball.

Same goes for Andruw Jones, by the way.

Curious about some OF's '09 salaries

Man, there are some really good free agent OF's out there...

Wonder what these guys are gonna make in '09 and I wonder if some teams who weren't planning on adding a bat will change their minds as the prices come down:

Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Garret Anderson

Dunn's the guy I'd jump on even if I didn't need a hitter. He's not the best hitter in the world but his combination of power and patience are underrated. He's on base more than most .300 hitters so I'll live with the strikeouts when they come with home runs attached.

Best remaining FA SP's

1. Ben Sheets (definitely worth the risk of a 1-2 year deal)
2. Oliver Perez (if this guy ever learns consistency he'll be nasty)
3. Jon Garland (would be a steal for an NL team)
4. Randy Wolf (I'd take him if I had an open rotation spot)
5. Braden Looper (lots of life left in that arm after spending most of his career in the pen)
6. Odalis Perez (lazy but good enough to fill in the 5th spot in a rotation)
7. Tom Glavine (not sure he's gonna get that many guys out in '09)
8. Andy Pettitte (same as Glavine, especially if back in the AL East)
9. Kris Benson (I'd give him an incentive laden deal to prove he's healthy)
10. Mark Mulder (same as Benson)

How could you leave out Pedro?

Well, I did that on purpose to give him his own section...

SOMEBODY NEEDS TO MAKE PEDRO THEIR CLOSER!!!

Look, he's younger than Trevor Hoffman and he has more pitches too, so why not?

He's never going to be able to stay healthy as a starter (just look at 2006-2008) but he has shown a few things over those three seasons:

1) He still misses a lot of bats (256 K's in 269 2/3 IP)
2) He still has control
3) He can still reach back for a little extra on the fastball, but only on occasion

This guy could close for 4-5 years if he's willing and someone gives him a chance. This guy has four quality pitches, he's a strike thrower AND he has no fear.

Put it all together and it spells "C-L-O-S-E-R"

KW

Early 2009 Power Rankings #27

2009-01-23T11:45:00.003-06:00

Time for yet another installment of TBG's early 2009 Power Rankings. You can find #'s 28, 29 and 30 below...

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

27. Washington Nationals

These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.

I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.

Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.

In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.

LINEUP

According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes

There is some potential there...

Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.

Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.

Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.

Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...

Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.

Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.

Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.

Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.

As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.

PITCHING

Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:

1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester

Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.

Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.

Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.

The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.

Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.

CL. Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.

Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.

OVERVIEW

The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.

The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).

This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.

KW

TGB Top 100 Prospects - commentary

2009-01-22T17:10:00.003-06:00

Just a word of advice...

Criticism means so little when it is done anonymously...

Got this comment today on my Top 100 Prospects list:

"Anonymous said...
bahaha this list is a joke.Lars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
January 22, 2009 4:27 PM "

My response:

"Wheels said...
Boy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people."Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.Check it out for yourself.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html

Rating prospects is not a science my man.By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
January 22, 2009 5:09 PM "

Not picking on Baseball America - they are absolutely THE BEST when it comes to prospect rankings and draft information. THE BEST, period, without peer.

Just using BA to illustrate that this is not an exact science. Ripping a list - any list- at this point is silly. Question me all you want, but use your head (AND YOUR NAME) when doing so.

The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects list here, FYI:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html?showComment=1232665740000#c3040229003897727336

This is why the Royals are the Royals...

2009-01-21T11:55:00.004-06:00

The Royals avoided arbitration with C John Buck, agreeing to a 1-year $2.9 million contract.

What's so terrible about that?

First of all, I just want to say this isn't a pot-shot at John Buck. I think $2.9 million is a fair salary for him, if you're going to play him full-time over the course of the season.

This is, however, a pot-shot at the Royals organization.

Why pay Buck $2.9 million and Olivo $2.7 million to be the SAME PLAYER.

2008:

Buck - .669 OPS, 370 AB
Olivo - .720 OPS, 306 AB

3-Year Average:

Buck - .708 OPS, 368 AB
Olivo - .701 OPS, 396 AB

Okay, so you're a team that has limited financial resources and you're going to pay two guys to produce the exact same numbers and have them split time?

Why not just pick one and let him play 130 games while having a cheap back up to spell the regular every so often?

Both Buck and Olivo are solid defensive catchers so you're not going to hurt yourself all that much no matter who you go with. Pick one and be done with it.

They'd be better off saving the money from one of them to sign draft picks if they're not able to put it toward an improvement elsewhere.

While I'm at it, here are some other players the Royals are wasting money on (guys who can certainly play but who aren't worth the money to this team):

Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million):
$4+ million a year for an inconsistent setup man?

Ron Mahay ($4 million):
Good player but why is he worth that money on a last place team?

Ross Gload ($1.9 million):
Nice bench player but the Royals use him too much and pay too much for what he should be.

Horacio Ramirez ($1.8 million):
Did they see this guy pitch last year? Was he worth signing at all?

Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million):
How many utility players do the Royals need, exactly?

That doesn't even count Mike Jacobs, who will make between $2.75 million (team arbitration number) and $3.8 million (his arbitration number) and occupy a spot that could go to Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy for a lot less money. Jacobs is solid but, again, not worth that kind of money to this particular team.

They could have another premium player or two if they weren't so enthralled with paying so much to have spare parts around. What's wrong with using guys making the league minimum as your backups when you're a low budget, last place club?

You don't get better by adding bench players, you get better by adding starting quality players.

KW

Early 2009 Power Rankings #28

2009-01-20T12:16:00.004-06:00

Time for another installment of The Baseball Gods' early Power Rankings. You can find #29 (Seattle) and #30 (San Diego) lower on the page.

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

And away we go...

28. Pittsburgh Pirates

I'm always pretty hard on the Pirates because they've been so horribly mismanaged over the last 10-12 season but I'm willing to give GM Neal Huntington some time to turn things around before I start blasting his decisions.

That said, there really isn't a lot to like about the Buccos in 2009.

Too much payroll wasted on players who aren't productive enough and too little emphasis on the big picture. Some of their higher-end salary players are good big leaguers but they're just not going to be around when the Pirates can compete again. So why keep them?

Again, I'll give Huntington and his staff the benefit of the doubt because they're still relatively new to all this but they have a chance to show some guts this season by getting rid of their big contracts, adding more prospects, and building long-term.

LINEUP

According to the Pirates' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Ryan Doumit
1B. Adam LaRoche
2B. Freddy Sanchez
3B. Andy LaRoche
SS. Jack Wilson
LF. Brandon Moss
CF. Nate McLouth
RF. Steve Pearce

Okay, here's the problem with the Pirates - they have $20 million tied up in Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez in '09, which will be 40-45% of their payroll if my math is correct. Those three guys combined for a .727 OPS last season w/ a .271 average, 35 HR and 159 RBI in 1,366 AB.

At those rates in a 550 at-bat season a player would hit .271 with 14 HR, 64 RBI and that same .727 OPS - all that for an average of nearly $7 million a year.

And you wonder why the Pirates finish at the bottom each year. Their three highest paid players combined average out to a mediocre middle infielder offensively. I'd trade all three of them for a big bag of nothing just to save the money.

Seriously.

They're all solid players but not in this situation for the salaries they make. They're role players, not core players.

Doumit is a really good hitting catcher and a valuable asset, so I like him. Andy LaRoche has lots of power potential and he's cheap, so I'd have no problem giving him 500 AB's to see what he can do until Pedro Alvarez is ready. I'm intrigued by Moss as well and think he could be a decent contributor as a 6th/7th hitter in the lineup, plus he's cheap. Pearce has power and deserves a chance to get some regular at-bats.

McLouth is the interesting guy in the bunch. He's getting closer to where he's gonna get some big bucks based on what he did in '08 but he's also the team's best all-around player entering '09. Hard to say they should trade him sometime this season but that depends on what he brings in return I suppose. For now it's probably wise to see if he can duplicate what he did last season.

Neil Walker is a guy I'd like to see get an opportunity as well, perhaps by trading off Adam LaRoche and putting the young switch-hitter there.

With Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jose Tabata waiting in the wings the Buccos could get a nice boost in talent here soon. I'd be planning on building around those guys, Doumit and McLouth with everyone else on the trade block.

PITCHING

Once again, deferring to the Pirates' official website for the rotation and closer...

1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Ross Ohelndorf
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Zach Duke

There is a chance, hard as it may be to believe, that this rotation will be better than it was in '08. I think Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke are all better than their '08 numbers indicate. Snell is very talented but needs to find consistency if he's going to live up to his contract.

I like Maholm, who seems to get better each season. He's not a #1 starter - nobody on this team is - but he's solid. Gorzelanny and Duke were awful last season but there is hope - Gorzelanny went 14-10 w/ a 3.89 ERA in '07 and Duke was 10-15 w/ a 4.48 ERA in 200+ innings in '06. If they combine for a 4.50 ERA or lower this season and give the team 180-200 innings each then they'll be solid 4th/5th starters.

The strange one here is Ohlendorf. Why is he listed as the #3 starter? Weird. Guy posts a 6.00+ ERA as a starter AND as a reliever last season and the Pirates' website projects him as the 3rd starter? M'kay. Not buying that.

Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait are filler guys, nothing more, and I'm not sure what prospect Brad Lincoln is at this point.

CL. Matt Capps

He's solid and if healthy will do a fine job of closing games. The Pirates actually have some intriguing guys in the bullpen - John Grabow, Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Sean Burnett, etc. - but if the lineup doesn't produce and the rotation isn't way better than it was last season then none of it will matter.

OVERVIEW

Neal Huntington has his work cut out for him and with the right moves he just might be able to set this team up to be more competitive in 2010. The money they're spending on the infielders (not counting Andy LaRoche) would be better served if it were consolidated into one impact player. Someone like, oh I don't know, Jason Bay.

There are some talented hitters on the way so if they play their cards right, and those young players live up to expectations, then the Pirates just might be able to start thinking about moving up in the standings in a year.

Just not this year.

KW

"The Tale of Todd Wellemeyer"

2009-01-19T22:21:00.002-06:00

In case anyone missed it today, the Cardinals gave Todd Wellemeyer a $4.05 million contract for 2009 and avoided an arbitration hearing.

The news of the deal got me to thinking...

How in the hell did the Cubs, Marlins and Royals just flat out give up on this guy?

Here's a big, strapping right handed pitcher who can reach the mid 90's with his fastball to go along with a pretty good slider and you've got three teams that wash their hands of him in 2-year span?

The funny thing is - well, not so funny for the teams that gave up on - that he'd be doing in his thing as a starter in the minors and then he'd get called up to the big leagues and immediately be stuck in the bullpen, a place he'd never worked before.

In 107 career minor league games Wellemeyer appeared as a reliever just 10 times.

And people were confused to the point where they gave up on a talented (cheap) young pitcher?

Sometimes the decision makers on big league teams confuse the hell out of me.

Wellemeyer was never a superb minor league pitcher - control problems, difficulty getting past the 5th inning, etc. - but he was always a very gifted player. Was the Royals' rotation in 2007 really so crowded they couldn't find a way to work this guy into the mix?

Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and the Cardinals took a shot on this guy, put him in his natural role and look at what he's done...

13-9 w/ a solid 3.72 ERA in 191 2/3 IP last season, 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts w/ the Cards in '07.

So, 16-10 w/ an ERA around 3.70 in 43 big league starts.

Not bad for a guy picked up off the Royals' scrap heap.

Ah, they're so loaded they'll never miss him....

KW

O's pull fast one on Cubs

2009-01-18T19:44:00.005-06:00

Okay, they "took" a fast one from the Cubs...

The O's sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubbies for OF Felix Pie and said they plan on Pie being their everyday LF with Luke Scott getting most of his time at DH and Aubrey Huff becoming the primary starter at 1B.

Nice move by the Birds.

I like Pie and think the Cubs gave up on him way too soon. The guy is 23 years-old (turns 24 Feb. 8), he hits for average, has some pop, has plenty of speed, he can throw and he's cheap. Nice combo if you ask me.

The Cubs should have given him a much longer, more consistent look in the big leagues than they did. Here's a guy that hit .300 with 34 HR and 37 SB over 1,123 Triple-A at-bats in his career and he did that at the ages of 21-22-23.

Why give up on that guy?

Well, maybe there is some method to the apparent madness...

The Jake Peavy rumors won't quit and there has been word leaked out over months that indicates Olson could be a guy that interests the Padres. He was awful last season (9-10, 6.65 ERA in 26 big league starts) and probably doesn't have a ton of upside, but a move to Petco Park might turn him into a solid, cheap 4th starter in very short order.

If this leads to a deal that brings Peavy to Chicago then my negative feelings about the Cubs giving up on Pie too soon will be withdrawn.

Either way, this is a great move for Baltimore. Suddenly they have a 3-man OF with tools galore that will provide outstanding defense now and in the future. Also, don't discount Pie as a potential 20-HR guy playing at Camden Yards.

He won't walk much but he'll catch the ball, keep base runners from taking liberties and he'll be a 20-20 threat at some point, IMO.

KW

Update on #30 Padres

2009-01-15T19:50:00.003-06:00

Just in case you're wondering, the addition of David Eckstein to play 2B does nothing to get the Padres out of the basement of The Baseball Gods Preseason Power Rankings.

Nor would the signing of Omar Vizquel.

What are they thinking out there? Are they trying to have the least powerful middle infield of all-time?

Paging Mr. Vizquel, Mr. Omar Vizquel. Mario Mendoza is waiting in the lobby and he would like his bat back...

KW

Thinking Out Loud - Jan. 15

2009-01-15T19:22:00.002-06:00

Michael Young accepts move to 3B

Checking in from the Blues-Avalanche game. Well, the pre-game anyway. One of my many duties for KMOX is covering the Blues - we're their radio rights-holder - but I've got a few minutes before the game starts and just noticed an update on the Michael Young situation in Texas....

Apparently he decided to heed my words, suck it up and accept the move to third base.

Okay, that's definitely not true. One way or another, Young has done the right thing here. The Rangers are paying him a lot of money over the next five years and the least he can do is be a team player.

Glad to see that's he's found religion on this subject....

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090115&content_id=3745615&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex&partnerId=rss_tex

Free Agent starter I really, really like for an NL team...

Jon Garland.

He's made at least 32 starts in each of the last 7 seasons.

He's pitched at least 191 innings in each of the last 7 seasons (topping 200 4 times).

He's 106-89 for his career and has pitched on contending teams for the last 4-5 seasons.

His career ERA is 4.47, which isn't that bad when you consider that most of that time was spent pitching in hitter-friendly US Cellular Field on the South Side of Chicago.

He's also just 29 years-old and won't turn 30 until the end of September 2009.

Note: My recommendation is for a NATIONAL LEAGUE team to sign him. No DH, none of that.

Hello? Cardinals? Dodgers? Mets? Anyone looking for a starter?

Prediction: If Garland signs with an NL team not in Philadelphia, Cincinnati or Colorado he'll win 13-16 games, post an ERA between 3.70-4.10 and log 200+ innings.

That is all for now...

KW

Early 2009 Power Rankings #29

2009-01-15T13:41:00.004-06:00

For those who haven't seen #30 yet, check it out here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-early-power-rankings-30.html

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

Now back to the countdown...

29. Seattle Mariners

Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to baseball's most disappointing team in 2008 - the Seattle Mariners!

Can you imagine spending $117 million on a team to win 61 games?

I don't know whether that's hysterical or just pathetic. Okay, it's both.

There's a new regime in place in the Great Northwest for 2009 so maybe they'll be able to turn things around at some point but they have one hell of a crater to dig themselves out of. Lots of bad contracts, very little offensive punch and not much available in terms of prospects ready to make a big league impact. I wish them luck...

LINEUP

According to the Mariners official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Jeff Clement
1B. Bryan LaHair
2B. Jose Lopez
3B. Adrian Beltre
SS. Yuniesky Betancourt
LF. Endy Chavez
CF. Franklin Gutierrez
RF. Ichiro Suzuki
DH. Russell Branyan

Now, I'm not sure that's exactly what the lineup will look like on Opening Day but I do know that whatever changes might come this club isn't exactly in position to snag a top tier free agent. Only the Oakland A's scored fewer runs than the Mariners in the AL last season. The A's went out and added Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to their lineup while the Mariners watched their best hitter from '08, Raul Ibanez, leave via free agency.

Kenji Johjima will play some because he's getting paid too much to be a pure backup. I'm sure the team would like Wladimir Balentien to win the LF job over Chavez but his .592 OPS w/ a strikeout every third at-bat in '08 didn't exactly inspire confidence. Maybe Mike Carp pushes LaHair at 1B, but in all honesty, what's the difference between the two?

The only guy in the lineup with proven Major League power is Beltre and he's inconsistent. Lopez is okay but not a force by any means. Clement has potential to be a solid power guy but making contact at the big league level has been a bit of a challenge for him so far. I thought Gutierrez was a bit of a sleeper heading into '08 but he stunk out the joint - not sure what to make of him for '09. Betancourt is a good glove man but doesn't bring much to the plate aside from the ability to make weak contact (.692 OPS).

That leaves Chavez, LaHair, Branyan and Ichiro to round out the lineup. Chavez is a 4th/5th OF, LaHair doesn't have enough power to be an everyday 1B in the big leagues (though Carp might). Branyan is a Quadruple-A player who is best served playing only a couple of times a week.

Ichiro is the team's only true offensive star but he's 35 years-old and it's beginning to look like he won't be around to see the next Mariners' contender. Maybe they should entertain the thought of trading him at some point during the '09 season. The only problem with that is their owner is Japanese and wants Ichiro for marketing purposes both in Seattle and back in Japan. I bet he'd bring a pretty nice return in a trade, though.

The rest of the bad news - none of the team's top prospects are nearly ready to jump into the mix. Matt Tuiasosopo is a decent-but-not-great prospect who made some strides at Triple-A last year, so maybe he can take over at 3B if they trade Beltre but he's not exactly a "can't miss" guy. Clement is already here. OF's Greg Halman and Michael Saunders need more time, as does stud IF prospect Carlos Triunfel. C Adam Moore might be someone to keep an eye on. OF Dennis Raben has top-end power but hasn't played much pro ball yet, so he'll need some time.

PITCHING

Once again, deferring to the Mariners' official website for the rotation and closer:

1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith

They list Brandon Morrow as the 6th starter, which is actually pretty hard to believe. He either makes the rotation this year or winds up being their closer, period. He's too good for anything else.

King Felix is a star and he would be a top end starter in just about any rotation. Love him. I'm also a bigger fan of Bedard than most. People seem to be really down on him right now but he's got excellent stuff and I won't write him off just yet.

Washburn's an okay 4th/5th starter but $9.5 million is too much to pay him. Silva flat out stinks. It sounds like hindsight (though I said it loud and clear at the time), but his contract is one of the worst in baseball history. He was erratic in Minnesota, he doesn't miss many bats and there are simply too many guys who there who can do what he does to justify that 4-year, $48 million contract. Brutal.

Rowland-Smith is interesting - live arm and some success at the end of last season in the big leagues - but not a known commodity. While Morrow has amazing talent, I actually like him finishing games better than I like him as a starter. He can be a lights-out closer for the next 10 years if they use him in that role.

Prospects Phillipe Aumont and Juan Ramirez are talented but not ready for prime time entering 2009.

CL. Aaron Heilman

Actually, the Mariners' website lists Roy Corcoran atop the list of relievers but I find it hard to believe he'll be finishing games. Check that - I find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe he'll be finishing games.

If Morrow isn't going to close, Heilman's the right guy to start off with. Miguel Batista has had some success finishing games in his career (another horrible contract, by the way) and maybe he can get into the mix there too. I also like Mark Lowe's arm but I don't think he's closer material just yet.

The way I'd do it if I were in manager Don Wakamatsu's shoes would be to have Morrow closing games with Heilman and Batista working as starters in Spring Training. That way if Bedard isn't going to be ready, or if Rowland-Smith takes a step back, one of them can start with the other returning to a setup role.

OVERVIEW

This is an organization that is absolutely floundering at the moment. Maybe the team's new leadership can turn things around but it certainly won't happen overnight. I would advise trading off guys like Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima (if you can) and any starter not named Hernandez or Morrow to build for 2010.

By then some of these players will have answered questions and the team should be in a better position to recover once guys like Triunfel, Raben, Halman, Saunders and Aumont are ready to contribute.

For now, however, they look like the worst team in the AL to me.

KW

Update on #30 Padres

2009-01-14T12:52:00.002-06:00

A couple of days ago I began unveiling my early 2009 Power Rankings by profiling the Padres, my 30th ranked club.

Since then they re-signed Mark Prior, and added IF Chris Burke as well, which obviously caused me to reth........

Uh, no.

Unless he's the 18-6, 2.43 ERA and 246 K Mark Prior from 2003 then nothing changes. Even if by some miracle he is that good, the lineup still stinks.

Nothing more to see here, please move along...

Thinking Out Loud - Jan 14, 2009

2009-01-14T12:01:00.003-06:00

Back from the sick bed today w/ thoughts on several stories

Michael Young wants Rangers to trade him

Short version of events: the Rangers decided to move Young from SS to 3B to make room for prospect Elvis Andrus without consulting Young. Young asks to be dealt.

Uh, fat chance my friend.

There is absolutely zero chance that the Rangers will be able to get any kind of fair value in a trade involving Young because of his contract. He gets $16 million a year for the next 5 years (2009-2013) and there just aren't many teams who can absorb that much into their payroll while also giving up quality in return.

It should also be noted that Young's production has slipped a bit over the last three years.

2004 - .313, 22 HR, 99 RBI (.836 OPS)
2005 - .331, 24 HR, 91 RBI (.899 OPS)
2006 - .314, 14 HR, 103 RBI (.815 OPS)
2007 - .315, 9 HR, 94 RBI (.784 OPS)
2008 - .284, 12 HR, 82 RBI (.741 OPS)

I think that .899 OPS in '05 was an abberation but that three-year decline has got to be scary. Other teams might also wonder what those numbers would look like had he not been hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball 81-times a year.

Plus, I seriously doubt the Rangers will be willing to eat a big chunk of that just to accomodate Young's desire to stay in the middle infield.

Hey Mike, what about what's best for your team? You know, the one that's gonna pay you $80 million over the next 5 years...

If moving you to 3B makes the team better, just do it. Stop with the ego-driven soap opera.

The Rangers don't like their other defensive options at 3B (Hank Blalock & Chris Davis) so having a solid glove man (Young) slide over to accomodate another strong glove man (Andrus) is completely logical.

Plus, it makes more sense to shift the 32 year-old veteran to a corner infield spot than it does to move the kid over there.

Suck it up big fella.

Manny still out there - Dodgers, Giants supposedly after him

"You reap what you sow."

See what all this "Manny Being Manny" business has gotten you, Mr. Ramirez?

Even though you're dead-cinch lock Hall of Famer and still one of the best hitters in the game, nobody wants any part of you on a long-term deal because you're a headcase. Especially not at the money you're asking for.

There is no doubt in my mind that Manny would have a 4-year, $100 million offer on the table if he were the kind of player that you never had a question about regarding effort. All the garbage he pulled in Boston last year is kicking him in the rear end this offseason.

Rightfully so.

I like Manny as a player. He's one of the best hitters I've ever seen and he seems like a decent, fun-loving kind of guy. But when you get the rap of being someone who "tanked" it as a means of getting out of town you don't live that down quickly.

Not that Scott Boras needs my advice, but here's some anyway:

Take a 1-year deal for $25 million from the Dodgers, tell your client to go be a good teammate for a full year in LA and then revisit this next offseason when there's a little distance between contract talks and Manny's reindeer games in Boston.

Derek Lowe gets 4-years, $60 million from the Braves

I like Derek Lowe and think he'll be a nice pitcher for the Braves. Seems like a lot of years for a guy who turns 36 in June but with his pitching style it doesn't seem like he'd be one to break down going forward.

The Braves also locked in Kenshin Kawakami, so their rotation depth is good for now.

Now they've got to fix that lineup. Need at least two more bats (CF, LF) IMO.

Kris Benson back in the mix

Word is that his arm feels good and that four teams are interested...

Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers

Cardinals fans would lose their minds if Benson signs in St. Louis. Been down this rehab road too many times recently (Mark Mulder, Matt Clement and at a different level Chris Carpenter).

Might make sense for the Dodgers and the Rangers really wouldn't have much to lose by taking a shot.

Can't see where he'd fit in w/ the D'Backs. They have better in-house options.

2009 Early Power Rankings - #30

2009-01-12T21:34:00.004-06:00

And so it begins...

Even though there are still dozens of relatively big name free agents available it's time to get going with my 2009 Pre-Season Power Rankings. I'll go one team at a time, starting from #30 and working my way up to the top of the list.

The reason I'm doing it this way is simple - the teams at the bottom of my list don't seem to be on the verge of making moves that will have an immediate impact on their teams. The teams in the middle are more likely to make moves that could change their fortunes so my secret list will probably undergo some adjustments over the next 5-6 weeks.

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out. This is just to get the ball rolling.

Time to get down to business...

30. San Diego Padres

Wow. Just wow.

This team is incredibly weak and it would seem that 2009 is nothing more than a building year for Kevin Towers and Co., especially given that the Jake Peavy trade rumors simply refuse to go away.

Lineup

According to the Padres official website, here are their projected starters...

C. Nick Hundley
1B. Adrian Gonzalez
2B. Edgar Gonzalez
3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS. Luis Rodriguez
LF. Chase Headley
CF. Scott Hairston/Jody Gerut
RF. Brian Giles.

Eww. A. Gonzalez is a superstar and Giles is a serviceable offensive player, though he has no business batting leadoff on this team because they have so few people who can drive in runs. After that, nothing excites me.

Hairston and Gerut are fourth outfielders - at best - on a good team. Kouzmanoff has some power and should drive in some runs but his 4-to-1 career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just terrible. E. Gonzalez and Rodriguez are utility men. Hundley hit .237 with 52 strikeouts in 198 at-bats w/ the Pads last year.

Headley is a talented young player with a lot of upside but he's got to make better contact going forward than he did in 2008 (104 K in 331 AB). I like him, though, and expect him to hit 20-25 HR while raising his average, on-base and slugging in '09.

So, what we have here is a team with one legit stud, one middle of the road veteran, one young veteran with some pop and good switch-hitting power prospect and a bunch of roster filler.

This is going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, maybe the lowest, and there isn't much hope of the team making any serious upgrades between now and Opening Day.

2B Matt Antonelli could be a factor as a decent hitting middle infielder. OF Kellen Kulbacki might be ready in late '09 or early '10 but I'd like to see something from him at the upper levels before getting too excited, though he did have a great '08 season. 1B Kyle Blanks is a monster with big-time power but he's not quite ready for the Majors AND he's blocked by the one real star this team has. OF Cedric Hunter has talent but isn't close to being ready.

Pitching

I'll refer to the Padres official website for their rotation and closer...

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Josh Geer
5. Wade LeBlanc

When you consider the possibility - heck, probability - that Peavy will be dealt in the next month this looks like an awful rotation. If he sticks around the Pads have one of the best starters in the National League to call upon every 5th day but I doubt it will do much good.

Young is a nice 2-3 starter when healthy but none of the others are all that inspiring. Geer posted nice numbers in 5 starts for the Pads but don't be fooled - PCL hitters batted .285 against him and his ERA was 4.54 in 28 games (27 starts) at Portland. Baek was once a decent prospect but he turns 29 in May and has just 59 big league games under his belt. LeBlanc is nothing to write home about either. The 24 year-old posted a 5.32 ERA at Triple-A Portland and sported an 8.02 ERA in 5 games (4 starts) for the Padres.

There is definitely room for competition here, though I suspect they'll bring in a veteran or two on Spring Training invites or incentive laden deals. They could also add volume in a Peavy deal but quantity never beats quality in the Majors.

Cesar Carrillo, Mat Latos and Will Inman are worth keeping an eye on in '09. Looks like the Pads will be needing some help.

CL. Heath Bell

Bell was lights out in '07 and the Pads had better hope he reverts to that form in '09. He was pretty good last year, just not as good as the year before. Entering '09 Bell has 2 career saves in 14 opportunities.

Nobody else in the pen does much for me. The league seems to have figured out Cla Meredith, Mike Adams is okay but notthing more and Justin Hampson isn't quite established.

Overview

The Padres have a weak lineup, a paper-thin rotation, a mediocre-at-best bullpen and a farm system with some decent players who don't appear to be Major League ready for the start of '09.

If they're not the worst team in baseball this year they'll be in the bottom three or four for sure.

KW

Henderson, Rice get into HOF

2009-01-12T15:34:00.003-06:00

Great to see Rice finally get in...

I'm not sure why he kept gaining votes year after year but whatever, he's now where he belongs. Maybe the steroid era has made people re-think his power numbers and what they meant to his era.

Henderson was a no-brainer. I just want to know who the 5% of voters are who didn't put him on their ballot. I still don't understand why some members of the BBWAA have to stick with this "nobody should ever be a unanimous selection" crap. I've said it before and I'll say it again: just because some baseball writers were to stupid/stubborn/biased to put Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson on their ballots way-back-when doesn't mean members of the BBWAA have to uphold that stupidity in the modern day.

Hard to believe we have such "simple thinkers" in the year 2008.

Sorry to see the other three guys on my faux ballot (I don't have a real one) didn't make it:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/hof-2009-heres-who-id-vote-for.html

Andre Dawson (65.9%), Jack Morris (42.9%) and Alan Trammell (18.2%) did live to fight another day. Looks like The Hawk might have a chance but Morris and Trammell appear to be just about out of luck.

KW

Note: I'll start up with my pre-season MLB power rankings later tonight w/ a shapshot look at my preseason #30...

MLB & the economy - are they really feeling the crunch already?

2009-01-07T18:30:00.004-06:00

Lots of grumbling around MLB these days about the economy. Had a chance to talk to http://www.sabernomics.com/ author J.C. Bradbury on Sports Open Line on Newstalk 1120 KMOX in St. Louis (my real job) about what owners are saying and how that matches up with reality.

We also talked about the idea of putting a in a salary cap in Major League Baseball...

Neither of us are a big fan of the idea....

Check it out:

Part 1
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298698

Part 2
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298700

OR

http://www.kmox.com/pages/67880.php?

KW

Salary caps bite

2009-01-05T17:23:00.005-06:00

Count owners Drayton McLane (Astros), Mark Attanasio (Brewers) and Frank Coonelly (Pirates) in amongst those who want a salary cap in MLB.

There's a shocker. Really rich guys want to be "bailed out" because of their own ineptitude. Gee, where have I heard that before?

I'm sorry but this "baseball needs a salary cap" garbage just has to stop. Really. Like now.

Here are a couple of salary cap myths that I will proceed to smash into dust...

1. Salary caps make things more fair and creates a level playing field for all teams.

Salary caps do not make a sport more "fair," as is often alleged. They do not create parity and they certainly don't do anything to make the sport more "fan friendly."

Salary caps do one thing and one thing only: guarantee a larger profit for ownership.

That's it, nothing more.

That's not a terrible thing, by the way, it's just not how the whole thing is sold to sports fans. These bazillionaire owners know you'd tell them to stick it where the sun don't shine if they told you the truth about salary caps so they feed you a line of b.s. to get you to go along with the program.

Which sport has lowered ticket/concession prices for you after getting a salary cap? What have those leagues with caps done to make your life as a fan more enjoyable?

What caps usually mean is that teams have to let some of your favorite/most popular players leave via free agency because they're capped out and can't keep them.

Man, I love when that happens to my teams!

Caps also don't account for the amount of money teams have available to spend on bonuses, front office personnel, coaches and scouts. Even if it levels the playing field for player salaries - which it does not when you consider bonus money - it does nothing of the sort for any of the other important areas of the sport.

2. Salary caps create parity

That is the biggest, steamiest pile of dog poo ever foisted upon sports fans.

Look, there is parity in the NFL for one simple reason. THEY ONLY PLAY 16 GAMES!

It's the sample size, stupid.

Anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen during a 16-game season. Hell, even the Royals can go 11-5 during a 16-game stretch. The reason there is so much turnover in terms of playoff teams in the NFL is that they play a very short schedule.

It's pure statistics. If you do an exit poll during a presidential election you're not going to get an accurate result if you only poll 16 people. If you poll 1600 people you're starting to get to the point where you can actually learn something from your polling.

Baseball will NEVER have parity like the NFL has (nor will the NHL or NBA) because they play too many games. Over 162 games the cream will eventually rise to the top. A 4-game winning streak in the NFL is the statistical equivalent to a 40-game winning streak in baseball.

It's not the cap, it's the number of games that creates parity.

Here are a couple of other factors that should be considered if you want to advocate for a salary cap in baseball:

* With a "cap" comes a "floor." Do you really think teams like Florida, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburg and Minnesota want to add $15-20 million to their payrolls to reach a "floor" that will certainly be negotiated. Maybe, but only if...

* You add in TOTAL revenue sharing like they have in the NFL. Do you really think the owners of the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers want to give away a huge chunk of their own revenue to other teams? They already chip in to revenue sharing and the luxury tax, which goes to all those teams listed above anyway (which they seem to always pocket), so do you think they're going to be thrilled about the idea of giving away even more.

The MLBPA is not the only opponent a salary cap would face. I'd bet owners would be split 50-50 on this issue - at best.

* Isn't it funny that all these super-wealthy MLB owners love the capitalist system we have in the United States of America when it comes to their non-sport businesses but they're oh-too-happy to switch over to a socialist system when it comes to their sports team?

Can't have it both ways fellas. You either want to share-and-share-alike or you don't...

There is nothing wrong with the current baseball system. The Yankees can spend all they want and if they go too far, which they always do, then they've got to write a luxury tax check on top of what they spend.

Baseball's current system does a fine job of spreading the wealth, they just need to tweak the rules so those receiving checks have to SPEND THE MONEY on talent instead of just pocketing it.

Make no mistake about it, those low payroll teams make a profit every single year.

If they want to compete at a higher level maybe they need to cut back on profit a little for a couple of years and add some to the infrastructure of their franchise. Stop giving big contracts to mediocre players for the sole purpose of trying to convince your fans you're "doing something" and hire smart baseball men to make smart decisions.

In other words, your teams stink because of YOU and the people YOU hire, not because other teams have more cash on hand...

KW

Milton Bradley helps the Cubbies?

2009-01-05T16:01:00.003-06:00

What the hell are the Cubbies doing? $30 million over 3-years for Milton Bradley?

Bad move, my friends, bad move.

Not only is the guy a total headcase he's also injury prone and only seems interested in himself.

Hell, there's a reason a guy as gifted a Bradley is has played for 6 teams in parts of 9 Major League seasons. The guy can play all three outfield positions, he hits for average, draws walks, has really good power and can run a little bit too but nobody wants to keep him around...

Hmm, I wonder why that is?

The crazy thing about this move for the Cubbies is that they had to move Mark DeRosa to, allegedly, clear room in the budget to give Bradley $10 million a year.

Let's see, we're gonna move a great clubhouse guy who can play pretty much anywhere on the field while providing pretty good offense so we can fit in a headcase of an outfielder and pay the headcase twice as much as the good clubhouse guy?

Boy, that headcase must be a much more productive player than the good clubhouse guy.

Okay, maybe not...

Over the last three seasons (2006-2008) DeRosa has hit .291 with 44 HR, 233 RBI and posted an .821 OPS while playing 1527 games and providing solid defense at 6 different positions.

In that same time frame Bradley hit .302 with 49 HR, 166 RBI and posted a .923 OPS when he played. Key words: "when he played." Bradley has averaged just 325 at-bats per season from '06-'08 and no better than that during his career.

In fact, Bradley has only one 500 AB season and 2008 marked only the second time he's even reached 400 AB.

Yeah, Bradley is a better/more talented player than DeRosa but is he really "better" when you factor in the 30-40 games he's going to miss? Is he really so much better than DeRosa that he deserves to be paid twice what DeRosa will make?

No and no.

So the Cubs are making this deal - paying this kind of cash - and trading off a durable, reliable all-around player based on the assumption that somehow Bradley will miraculously do in his 30's what he never did in his 20's, which is stay healthy and motivated?

Okie dokie.

Glad it's not my money and glad I'm not a Cubs fan...

KW

Thinking Out Loud (12/31/08)

2008-12-31T16:52:00.002-06:00

Angels sign Fuentes to replace K-Rod

Nice signing by the Halos. Fuentes is an underrated reliever who has somehow gotten the bogus rap of a guy who "lost his closer's job" back in '07 during the Rockies' run to the playoffs.

That's not exactly how it played out...

Fuentes didn’t “lose” the job, he got hurt and then his manager didn’t give him the job back after he returned from the disabled list.

Here’s the breakdown on his 2007 season:

- Thru June 21 Fuentes was 20-of-22 in save chances and had a 1.89 ERA
- From June 22 - July 3 Fuentes gave up 10 ER in 4.3 IP
- Fuentes did not pitch from July 4 thru August 14 (he was on the DL with a strained muscle in his rib cage)
- He posted a 1.29 ERA in August after his return from the DL and a 1.15 ERA in September
- Outside of the 11-day stretch of bad games (followed by the DL stint) Fuentes allowed 11 ER in 57 IP (1.74 ERA)
- His save percentage outside of that 11-day window was 83% (20-of-24)

He's got an 85% conversion rate from 2005-2008 (111 saves in 131 chances), a 10.3 K/9 ratio, an opponent batting average around .200 and a 3-to-1 K/BB ratio (302 K/105 BB) during that 4-year run.

Also, if you factor out that 11-day stretch in 2007 (all of those games were on the road), his 2006-2008 road splits were incredibly impressive: 40-of-47 saves (85%), 85 2/3 IP, 46 H, 22 ER, 41 BB, 95 K, 2.31 ERA.

The Angels got him at a bargain price ($17.5 million over 2 years w/ a $9 million option for a third year) and they will once again have one of the best bullpens in baseball with Fuentes closing while Scot Shields and Jose Arredondo setup for him.

Nice move.

Cubs manuevering for Peavy, Bradley or both

The Cubs traded IF-OF Mark DeRosa to the Indians for three minor league pitchers, none of them elite prospects (two are relievers), in what appears to be a move to clear some salary so they can either renew their pursuit of Jake Peavy, sign Milton Bradley (or Bobby Abreu) or perhaps do both.

They'll replace DeRosa on the roster with Aaron Miles who signed 2-year deal worth $4.9 million. Miles will make roughly half of what DeRosa is set to make in '09. Miles is a nice player who would appear to be a nice complement to Mike Fontenot at 2B for the Cubs.

They're also reportedly close to sending Jason Marquis and his $9.875 million contract to the Rockies for reliever Luis Vizcaino who makes $3.5 million.

The sum total of these moves saves the Cubs $9-10 million which would seem to be chump change for the franchise but with the ownership situation being what it is I guess the moves are understandable.

DeRosa will be a tough player to lose - he's significantly better offensively than a Miles/Fontenot combo figures to be and he's a better defensive player (at more positions) than the other two as well.

Great pickup for the Indians - they give up three pretty mediocre pitching prospects and get someone to take on a spot in their infield while providing an offensive upgrade. DeRosa could handle 3B for the Tribe if they wanted him to but they could also shuffle things a bit and move Jhonny Peralta over to 3B with Asdrubal Cabrera taking over at SS. Personally, that's how I'd do it...

This is a tough loss for the Cards, by the way. It leaves Adam Kennedy as the only 2B on the roster with significant MLB experience and it's over an $800,000 difference in pay (Miles' 08 salary vs. his new '09 salary) after Miles hit .317 last season.

It's kind of tough to swallow, watching a proven utility infielder go to your division rival because you didn't want to cough up a little more money and one extra year, especially for a guy who has basically been a regular the past two seasons.

Let me guess - it's the economy!

Tell that to the 3.5 million fans who will come through the gates in '09...

And stay out!!!

2008-12-29T17:49:00.005-06:00

A few days ago I went through the players I would vote for in this year's HOF class and now I'm going to go a slightly different route...

This time I'm singling out a few guys who have no business being considered for the Hall of Fame, even though they get a good bit of support in some baseball circles.

Quick disclaimer: none of what I write below is in any way personal. I have had little-to-no interaction with these players during my broadcasting career and my opinion is based on nothing more than my own analysis of the performance of these players.

And so it begins...

Tommy John

Seems like a nice guy and might be a candidate for selection as a "pioneer" - since a significant surgical procedure that has saved many a career was named after him - but as a pitcher I just can't come to grips with him being a Hall of Famer.

Every argument I hear on John's behalf begins with his 288 career wins, which is ludicrous since he pitched 26 years in the big leagues. The man averaged 11 wins a season for God's sake and only notched 74 wins (8 per year) in his last 9 seasons!

Consider the following:

* Only 4 All-Star appearances in 26 years
* Averaged 4 strikeouts per game
* Never won a Cy Young Award and finished in the Top 10 in voting only 4 times
* Finished in the Top 5 in ERA just 6 times in 26 years.
* 3.34 career ERA was just 0.35 better than the league average (3.69) from 1963-1989

In other words, Tommy John was a slightly above average pitcher for a very, very, very long time. That's not what a Hall of Famer is...

He was certainly a very valuable baseball player, don't get me wrong about that, but the Hall of Fame should be about greatness and not about being pretty good for 2 1/2 decades.

Was Tommy John ever the best pitcher in baseball for any signficant stretch of time? How many times was he even the best pitcher on his own team?

Dale Murphy

He's close, make no mistake about it, but he's just shy.

The .265 batting average certainly doesn't separate him from the crowd and while his power numbers were impressive, especially given the era he played in, they're not as impressive as they appear at first glance.

Murphy spent the relevant portion of his career playing at Fulton County Stadium, aka "The Launching Pad." His HR totals are a bit elevated because of that.

Look at Bob Horner's HR totals as an example of what I'm talking about - Horner hit 215 HR in 3571 AB as Murphy's teammate in Atlanta from 1978-1986. Murphy hit 264 HR during that same span but needed 4876 AB to do so. Compared directly, same team and same era, Horner hit a HR every 16.6 AB and Murphy hit a HR every 18.5 AB.

Clearly Murphy is the superior player of the two, I'm not questioning that. I'm just pointing out that it was relatively easy to hit HR's in Atlanta during that period of time.

From 1978-1987 Murphy was an awesome two-way player - 7 All-Star appearances, 2 MVP's, 5 Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Sluggers - but I'm just not sure he was good enough for long enough to merit Hall of Fame consideration.

Jim Rice, Andre Dawson, Dave Parker and Tim Raines are all better candidates for the Hall and if they all get in someday then I'll be more willing to add someone like Dale Murphy.

Don Mattingly

This is a truly unfortunate case of bad luck. "Donnie Baseball" was an awesome, awesome player and would have certainly been Hall of Fame material were his career not limited by back problems.

For 6 seasons (1984-1989) he was an absolute monster: .327 average while hitting 27 HR and driving in 114 runs per year during that stretch.

That's crazy, especially given the era.

The problem is that he only hit 58 home runs over the next 6 seasons and was no longer a true impact player.

If he had been able to have 3-4 more completely healthy seasons than he had, then Mattingly would have been a dead-cinch lock for the Hall since he had 7 All-Star appearances, 1 MVP, 9 Gold Gloves and 3 Silver Sluggers as it was.

Mattingly was a great player but just wasn't able to hold up physically for a long enough period of time.

Thinking out loud...

2008-12-29T16:53:00.002-06:00

Random thoughts on recent baseball stories....

Big Unit lands in the Bay

Not literally, of course. Great move by San Fran and a decent one by the Big Unit. He's from Walnut Creek, CA, he gets to start half his games in a pitcher's park and he could be one heck of a trade piece late in the '08 season if he's healthy and pitching well, so he could still find his way to a contender.

He'll get his 300th win early in the season - he only needs 5 more - and based on how he finished the '08 season there's still something left in the tank.

Not a bad rotation for the Giants: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Randy Johnson, Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez (if he's not traded for some offensive help).

Now if they could just get a decent bat or two...

Dodgers-Mets reportedly kicking around Andruw deal

What would the Mets want with a head-case like Jones? Even if the Dodgers pay every single dollar that Jones is owed, how does a guy who hit .222 in '07 and .158 in '08 make your team better? You also have to convince Mr. My-Range-Is-Gone-Cuz-I-Got-Fat to move to RF.

No thanks, this guy's toast. When he was a 35-HR guy with a Gold Glove you could live with the .250-.260 average and mental lapses but this guy slugged .249 last year and doesn't cover ground like he used to.

Two more ballplayers flee Fidel

SP Yadel Marti and OF Yasser Gomez have reportedly defected and will be looking to sign Major League contracts soon. They were both impact players in Cuba - Marti was their best pitcher in the 2006 World Baseball Classic.

Maybe their arrival will make up for the lack of Japanese talent coming to the U.S. this year, though I haven't seen any estimate regarding a timetable for either player signing and being ready to play. It's gonna be a while.

Red Sox find a shiny new Penny and a Bard

Great, great move. I think Penny is a big-time sleeper this season. He's gonna come cheap right about now (reportedly $5 million w/ $3 million in incentives) and he's got a lot of talent. I'm surprised more teams haven't been in on this guy.

If the Sawx land him it'll be a steal and it'll buy time for some of the younger SP's to develop a bit more. He's still only 30 years-old and went 16-4 with a 3.03 ERA over 208 IP in '07.

Signing Josh Bard is a solid idea. He's a good backup who has actually hit pretty well the last few years when he's been healthy. Could be a decent part-timer if they don't bring back Jason Varitek.

O's sign lefty Hendrickson

Huh? What part of the 5.07 career ERA don't the Orioles understand? The guy throws beach balls up there and the O's are considering him a potential part of their rotation? In that ballpark?

No wonder they've been crappy for so long.

Nats sign Corey Patterson

Speaking of stupid...

What the hell does Jim Bowden need another OF for? Having Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena and Willie Harris wasn't enough?

Oh, did I mention that Patterson stinks?

Jeez.

Nats make up for stupidity by signing Cabrera

At least signing Daniel Cabrera makes sense. This guy has an All-Star arm and a Little League brain but at least he's got talent and will come cheap.

He's got upside if he can ever figure out how to throw the ball over the plate. I doubt he'll ever live up to his potential but he's at least worth taking a shot at, unlike Patterson.

HOF 2009 - Here's who I'd vote for

2008-12-26T10:59:00.004-06:00

Let's talk about the 2009 Hall of Fame candidates...

There are five guys who would get my votes this year - if I had a ballot to fill out - and while I fully understand a few of them will never get in I have to put this stuff out there because I think the majority of HOF voters use screwed up criteria to make their selections.

I'm not calling the BBWAA a bunch of idiots - I have a good number of friends who are BBWAA members and they're some of the smartest people (not just in terms of baseball) that I know. What I do think, however, is that too many BBWAA members judge by a strange set of criteria that seems to change from case to case.

Far too offten it's about statistical milestones, too much about the quality of the team someone played on and too little about things like defense and excellence within one's era.

A guy like Tony Perez gets in the Hall, in my opinion based partly on the fact that he played for the Big Red Machine, while a guy like Ron Santo sits and waits while his health fails him because he had the bad fortune of playing for lesser teams.

Consider:

Perez (1964-1986): 2777 G, 9778 AB, 2732 H, 379 HR, 1652 RBI, OPS+ 122, 7-time All-Star, no Gold Gloves

Santo (1960-1974): 2243 G, 8143 AB, 2254 H, 342 HR, 1331 RBI, OPS+ 125, 9-time All-Star, 5 Gold Gloves

So what we have here is pretty obvious. Santo was the better player, especially during the 11-year period when their careers overlapped, and is still on the outside looking in mostly because voters seem to have an illogical distaste for adding a fourth player from some bad Cubbie teams.

Santo was clearly the dominant third baseman of his era in the National League, his offensive numbers are superior to those of Brooks Robinson and he was clearly the better defensive player compared to Perez, who spent the majority of his career at first base rather than third.

The guy posts similar offensive numbers, has more All-Star appearances and 5 Gold Gloves compared to zero for the other guy and there isn't something strange going on here?

This is just one example of what bugs about the Hall of Fame voting process. Too many people with goofy, nonsensical standards that don't stand up to any logical analysis whatsoever. Another example of that is coming up in a couple of paragraphs...

With all that out of my system now, let's move on to the players who would receive my votes for the 2009 HOF class:

Rickey Henderson - No need to make any points here as I doubt anyone disagrees that this guy's a Hall of Famer. Best leadoff man of all-time. What will tick me off, however, is the fact that some voters will leave him off their ballots this year as a means of ensuring that no player will ever be a unanimous selection. Now there's something that drives me nuts. This idea that since nobody in the inaugural HOF class was a unanimous choice nobody should EVER be is just plain stupid.

Here's the logic - some voters were complete, unadulterated idiots 70 years ago therefore we must act like idiots now.

Unreal.

Andre Dawson - Another guy, like Santo, who suffers because he wasn't on good teams often enough. 438 homers, 314 steals, Rookie of the Year, MVP (and runner up twice), 8-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger winner and 8 Gold Gloves.

That's not a Hall of Famer? The only differences between Dawson and Dave Winfield is that Winfield played in 300 more games and that Dawson didn't play for the Yankees.

Jack Morris - How can someone be the best pitcher in baseball for an entire decade and not be a Hall of Famer? Morris was the "Pitcher of the 80's" - nobody was better for an entire decade and he was a top of the rotation starter through 1992. Three more wins than Bob Gibson, though he did play in 21 more games and while his career ERA is a full run higher than Gibby's (3.91 to 2.90) it's important to note that Morris pitched in the American League during a more hitter-friendly era (w/ DH's) while Gibson pitched in the "Old School" National League, complete with 3-foot tall mounds.

Don't get me wrong, Gibson was CLEARLY superior to Morris, vastly superior in just about every way. I'm just trying to point out that Morris has numbers similar to an automatic Hall of Famer and yet he gets almost no love. Morris was the #1 starter on THREE different World Series winners, a 5-time All-Star and a World Series MVP.

All that and he was the best pitcher in baseball from 1979-1992.

Jim Rice - 1978 MVP, 8-time All-Star with 382 homers and 1451 RBI in just 2089 career games and he's not in the Hall? Really?

It took Winfield nearly 900 extra games to hit 83 more home runs and drive in 382 more runs. That's an extra 5 1/2 seasons. That tells me Rice was pretty productive, doesn't it?

I'm not picking on Winfield, by the way. I think he was a great choice and is certainly a Hall of Famer. He was an amazing all-around player, something I respect. I only use him as an example because he played in the same era, roughly speaking, as Dawson and Rice and because nobody questions his credentials.

Rice belongs...

Alan Trammell - This is a case that drives me nuts. Trammell was essentially the same player as Robin Yount and yet he sits outside Cooperstown because Yount played long enough to reach 3,000 hits. Compare their average seasons:

Trammell: .285, 13 HR, 71 RBI, 17 SB, 110 OPS+
Yount: .285, 14 HR, 80 RBI, 15 SB, 115 OPS+

In other words, over time their offensive production was just about the same. Yount was a little better with the bat but barely as the OPS+ shows reasonably well.

The difference is that Trammell was an outstanding shortstop while Yount was a decent shortstop who was moved to the outfield for the last 9 seasons of his career.

Yount was a 3-time All-Star who won 3 Silver Sluggers and just 1 Gold Glove. He was, however, a 2-time MVP.

Trammell was 6-time All-Star (remember, these guys played the same position in the same league for a long time) who also won 3 Silver Sluggers and 4 Gold Gloves. He was runner-up in MVP voting once and was a World Series MVP.

I'm not arguing that Yount shouldn't be in - I'm saying that Trammell should be in based on the fact that they were comparable offensive players while Trammell was CLEARLY the superior defensive player who played in twice as many All-Star games as Yount while playing in the same league at the same time.

Yanks vs. rest of AL contenders

2008-12-24T11:09:00.004-06:00

Today I'm going to put the Yankees' roster up against other contenders in the American League to prove one simple point:

Having a payroll that is BY FAR the highest in the sport does not necessarily mean that your roster is BY FAR the best there is....

Let's start w/ the everyday lineups:

Yankees
1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Teixeira, 1B
4. A-Rod, 3B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Swisher/Nady, RF
7. Posada, C
8. Cano, 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner, CF

Red Sox
1. Ellsbury, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Ortiz, DH
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Drew, RF
6. Bay, LF
7. Lowell, 3B
8. Lugo/Lowrie, SS
9. Kotteras/Varitek/Free Agent/Trade, C

Rays
1. Iwamura, 2B
2. Upton, CF
3. Pena, 1B
4. Longoria, 3B
5. Crawford, LF
6. Gross/Free Agent, DH (Burrell and similar players mentioned)
7. Joyce, RF
8. Navarro, C
9. Bartlett, SS

Angels
1. Figgins, 3B
2. Kendrick, 2B
3. Guerrero, RF
4. Hunter, CF
5. Rivera, DH
6. Matthews, LF
7. Napoli, C
8. Morales, 1B
9. Aybar, SS

Analysis: The Angels clearly have the weakest lineup of the group but I don't think they're done putting it together just yet. Someone else will be added somehow, maybe in a trade invoving Chone Figgins. Plus they could always find room for another power bat like Brandon Wood.

The Rays don't have the power that the Yankees and Sox do but they have a lot more speed. I don't like Crawford hitting 5th - I'd prefer him 2nd, Upton 3rd, Longoria 4th and Pena 5th - but that lineup has depth and they're almost certainly going to add another bat for DH/OF.

Looking at the Yanks and Sawx, I'd take the Sawx lineup. It's deeper, with better threats in the 5-6-7 holes. Even if you want to argue that it's certainly not unreasonable to call it a draw between the two teams.

Even with the addition of Tex, a top notch glove at 1B, the Yankees are probably the worst defensive team of this group. Tex, A-Rod and Melky and Jeter is okay but the rest are question marks at best. Rays & Angels are the two best overall with the glove with the Sox right there with them.

Rotations:

Yankees
1. Sabathia
2. Wang
3. Burnett
4. Chamberlain
5. Hughes/Pettitte (if signed)

Red Sox
1. Beckett
2. Lester
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wakefield
5. Buchholz/Bowden/Free Agent

Rays
1. Kazmir
2. Shields
3. Garza
4. Sonnanstine
5. Price

Angels
1. Lackey
2. Santana
3. Weaver
4. Saunders
5. Moseley/Adenhart/Free Agent

Analysis: Again, the Yankees have a talented group but not one that necessarily separates itself from the crowd. All four teams have comparable depth and young players ready to step in at the bottom of the rotation in the even of an injury. Also, word is that the Sox and Angels are still considering free agent SP's.

None of these groups are significantly better than the others.

Bullpens:

Yankees
CL. Rivera
RP. Marte
RP. Veras
RP. Bruney
RP. Albaladejo/Free Agent
RP. Aceves/Free Agent

Red Sox
CL. Papelbon
RP. Okajima
RP. Masterson
RP. Delcarmen
RP. Aardsma
RP. Lopez

Rays
CL. Percival
RP. Balfour
RP. Wheeler
RP. Howell
RP. Bradford
RP. Salas

Angels
CL. Shields/Arredondo/Free Agent (Fuentes?)
RP. Shields/Arredondo
RP. Oliver
RP. Speier
RP. Jepsen
RP. Bulger

Analysis: Again, the Yankees don't stand out. Rivera and Papelbon are a wash but the rest of the Sox bullpen is much stronger. The Rays have a 9th inning problem if Percival isn't healthy (maybe even if he is) but they have some young talent to work with during the season, either as in-house replacements or for trade bait. The Angels seem likely to land Brian Fuentes and if they do I think their pen is 2nd on this list behind Boston's.

Keep in mind that none of that counts other potential contenders like Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota or Oakland. They're not at the level of the other four coming into the season but they have to be considered. Twins are always in the mix, the White Sox were the division champs, the Indians and Tigers were last season's biggest underachievers and the A's are gonna give it a shot to start 2009.

Let's not start handing out trophies to the Yankees just yet...

KW

Yanks get Tex, the End of Days begins

2008-12-23T18:22:00.003-06:00

My ears hurt.

It's from all the gnashing of teeth and pathetic wailing coming from around the baseball universe and it's really, really irritating.

Based many people's initial reaction to the news that the Yankees have signed Mark Teixeira to an 8-year, $180 million deal you'd think there's no point in even playing out the season.

Give me a break.

What happened the last time the Yankees went free agent crazy? For that matter, what has happened the last several times someone named Steinbrenner went down this path?

Nothing.

Okay, maybe not "nothing" but certainly nothing of championship caliber.

Remember how big a deal it was when they got Clemens? Then when they got him back? How could anyone forget what "Edith" Waldman did - "Oh my gawd! Rowjah Clemens is a Yankee! Oh my gawd!"

What about A-Rod? Weren't the Yankees supposed to run away and hide after they robbed the Rangers blind? Wasn't that the move that would get them over the top?

Or when they signed Jason Giambi to that huge deal? Or Hideki Matsui, also known at the time as "Godzilla?"

Each and every time they outbid the rest of Major League Baseball for a big name player (or three) people freak out. And the Yankees don't win anything.

The Yankees spent entire decade of the 80's and the first half of the 90's wallowing in the muck because of their spend-first strategy when it came to building the Major League roster. For God's sake, the George Steinbrenner led Yankees went 17 seasons without a World Series title (and only won one division title during that time, in 1981) and it took George's eventual suspension for the franchise to return to championship level.

In the early and mid 90's the Yankees' baseball people did an outstanding job of developing players and picking up the right free agents (or trade acquisitions) to build a team that went on an amazing 8-year run from 1996-2003.

Since the World Series back in 2001 the Yankees have been flailing again. They've been throwing around free agent cash - to no avail - and now they've gone absolutely insane with their spending.

It makes for great Hot Stove discussion, no doubt, but the Yankees are hardly an unbeatable force heading into the 2009 season.

Let us take a look, shall we...

1. Johnny Damon, LF
2. Derek Jeter, SS
3. Mark Teixiera, 1B
4. Alex Rodriguez, 3B
5. Hideki Matsui, DH
6. Xavier Nady/Nick Swisher, RF
7. Jorge Posada, C
8. Robinson Cano, 2B
9. Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner, CF

That's a really good lineup but is it really all that much better than any other lineup? I don't think so. Lots of question marks there though I suspect guys like Damon, Jeter, Tex and A-Rod will keep the team scoring runs no matter what.

1. C.C. Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Chien-Ming Wang
4. Joba Chamberlain
5. Andy Pettitte/Phil Hughes

That's a nice looking rotation - great talent accumulation there - but again they're hardly without question marks. Burnett is erratic and has been injury prone, Wang is still recovering from a foot injury, Chamberlain hasn't proven he can put in a full workload over a whole season as a starter, Pettitte is starting to decline and Hughes hasn't proven he can get Major League hitters out.

That should be a fine group but, again, does that rotation look like it's that much better than that of other contenders in the AL? I think Boston, Tampa and Anaheim might be able to make a case for theirs...

CL. Mariano Rivera
RP. Damaso Marte
RP. Brian Bruney
RP. Jose Veras
RP. Edwar Ramirez
RP. Jonathan Albaladejo
RP. Alberto Aceves

Rivera is still the best around but nobody else there is all that inspiring. Veras and Ramirez are talented but not proven late-inning guys. Marte had a 5.40 ERA w/ the Yankees last season and guys like Bruney, Albaladejo and Aceves are middle men.

There is potential around Rivera but this group is hardly imposing beyond the man handling the 9th inning.

What's the point of all this?

Let things play out.

There is no need for knee-jerk reactions suggesting a salary cap is necessary, that the Yankees are ruining the game, so on and so forth...

The more they spend the more they pay in terms of luxury tax, which will help some low revenue teams pay their bills and maybe keep a few players, and recent history shows us that attempts to "buy a title" don't always turn out as planned.

I'm not saying the Yankees can't or won't win the World Series. I'm just saying they're not simply going to walk away with the league in 2009 and leave everyone in the dust.

The Red Sox and Rays aren't going away and neither are the Angels.

Without Goliath there can be no David....

KW

2009 Top 100 Prospects (Rankings Only)

2008-12-23T14:23:00.001-06:00

Here is my ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball entering the 2009 season. In January I will be posting this list again along with commentary/analysis for each player...

When ranking prospects I include the following criteria: raw physical ability, age-relative performance evaluation and opportunity to advance.

In other words, there's more to this set of rankings than just the physical skills of each player.

It should also be noted that this is not an exact science. My Top 100 may be markedly different than what Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or any other person/organization puts out. None of us are "right" when it comes to these kinds of rankings. It's all subjective, so if you don't see a guy here who made someone else's Top 100 that doesn't mean I feel like I know more than the folks putting together the other list, it just means I value the player involved differently.

Comments are welcome...

KW

2009 Top 100 Prospects

1. David Price, P (TB)
2. Matt LaPorta, OF (CLE)
3. Matt Wieters, C (BAL)
4. Travis Snider, OF (TOR)
5. Cameron Maybin, OF (FLA)
6. Jeff Samardzija, P (CHC)
7. Tommy Hanson, P (ATL)
8. Colby Rasmus, OF (STL)
9. Mike Stanton, OF (FLA)
10. Jason Heyward, OF (ATL)
11. Rick Porcello, P (DET)
12. Tyler Flowers, C (CHW)
13. Fernando Martinez, OF (NYM)
14. James McDonald, P (LAD)
15. Trevor Cahill, P (OAK)
16. Neftali Feliz, P (TEX)
17. Madison Bumgarner, P (SF)
18. Pedro Alvarez, 3B (PIT)
19. Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)
20. Chris Tillman, P (BAL)
21. Brett Anderson, P (OAK)
22. Alcides Escobar, SS (MIL)
23. Dexter Fowler, OF (COL)
24. Mike Moustakas, 3B (KC)
25. Jarrod Parker, P (ARZ)
26. Brett Wallace, 3B (STL)
27. Mat Gamel, 3B (MIL)
28. Kila Ka'aihue, 1B (KC)
29. Carlos Carrasco, P (PHI)
30. Elvis Andrus, SS (TEX)
31. Jake Arrieta, P (BAL)
32. Michael Bowden, P (BOS)
33. Michael Taylor, OF (PHI)
34. Jeremy Hellickson, P (TB)
35. Carlos Triunfel, SS (SEA)
36. Jordan Zimmerman, P (WAS)
37. Chris Perez, P (STL)
38. Lars Anderson, 1B (BOS)
39. Max Ramirez, C (TEX)
40. Tim Beckham, SS (TB)
41. Tim Alderson, P (SF)
42. Yonder Alonso, 1B (CIN)
43. Logan Morrison, 1B (FLA)
44. Junichi Tazawa, P (BOS)
45. Beau Mills, 1B (CLE)
46. Joulys Chacin, P (COL)
47. Aaron Hicks, OF (MIN)
48. Gordon Beckham, SS (CHW)
49. Josh Vitters, 3B (CHC)
50. Jason Donald, SS (PHI)
51. Angel Villalona, 1B (SF)
52. Wade Davis, P (TB)
53. Nick Weglarz, OF (CLE)
54. Freddie Freeman, 1B (ATL)
55. Jesus Montero, C (NYY)
56. Adam Miller, P (CLE)
57. Austin Jackson, OF (NYY)
58. Phillipe Aumont, P (SEA)
59. Jeff Niemann, P (TB)
60. Daryl Thompson, P (CIN)
61. Scott Elbert, P (LAD)
62. J.P. Arencibia, C (TOR)
63. Matt Dominguez, 3B (FLA)
64. Chris Carter, 1B (OAK)
65. Kyle Blanks, 1B (SD)
66. Wilmer Flores, SS (NYM)
67. Scott Lewis, P (CLE)
68. Lou Marson, C (PHI)
69. Carlos Santana, C (CLE)
70. Jordan Schafer, OF (ATL)
71. Buster Posey, C (SF)
72. Ivan DeJesus, SS (LAD)
73. Brett Cecil, P (TOR)
74. Kellen Kulbacki, OF (SD)
75. Ben Revere, OF (MIN)
76. Ryan Perry, P (DET)
77. Taylor Teagarden, C (TEX)
78. Chris Marrero, 1B (WAS)
79. Will Inman, P (SD)
80. Deolis Guerra, P (MIN)
81. Engel Beltre, OF (TEX)
82. Jemile Weeks, 2B (OAK)
83. Gaby Sanchez, 1B (FLA)
84. Jeremy Jeffress, P (MIL)
85. Nick Adenhart, P (LAA)
86. Michael Inoa, P (OAK)
87. Greg Halman, OF (SEA)
88. Dellin Betances, P (NYY)
89. Eric Hosmer, 1B (KC)
90. Jake McGee, P (TB)
91. Jon Niese, P (NYM)
92. Aaron Poreda, P (CHW)
93. Brian Matusz, P (BAL)
94. Michael Burgess, OF (WAS)
95. Daniel Bard, P (BOS)
96. Hank Conger, C (LAA)
97. Bradley Holt, P (NYM)
98. Chris Nelson, SS (COL)
99. Derek Holland, P (TEX)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA)