Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Yanks vs. rest of AL contenders

Today I'm going to put the Yankees' roster up against other contenders in the American League to prove one simple point:

Having a payroll that is BY FAR the highest in the sport does not necessarily mean that your roster is BY FAR the best there is....

Let's start w/ the everyday lineups:

Yankees
1. Damon, LF
2. Jeter, SS
3. Teixeira, 1B
4. A-Rod, 3B
5. Matsui, DH
6. Swisher/Nady, RF
7. Posada, C
8. Cano, 2B
9. Cabrera/Gardner, CF

Red Sox
1. Ellsbury, CF
2. Pedroia, 2B
3. Ortiz, DH
4. Youkilis, 1B
5. Drew, RF
6. Bay, LF
7. Lowell, 3B
8. Lugo/Lowrie, SS
9. Kotteras/Varitek/Free Agent/Trade, C

Rays
1. Iwamura, 2B
2. Upton, CF
3. Pena, 1B
4. Longoria, 3B
5. Crawford, LF
6. Gross/Free Agent, DH (Burrell and similar players mentioned)
7. Joyce, RF
8. Navarro, C
9. Bartlett, SS

Angels
1. Figgins, 3B
2. Kendrick, 2B
3. Guerrero, RF
4. Hunter, CF
5. Rivera, DH
6. Matthews, LF
7. Napoli, C
8. Morales, 1B
9. Aybar, SS

Analysis: The Angels clearly have the weakest lineup of the group but I don't think they're done putting it together just yet. Someone else will be added somehow, maybe in a trade invoving Chone Figgins. Plus they could always find room for another power bat like Brandon Wood.

The Rays don't have the power that the Yankees and Sox do but they have a lot more speed. I don't like Crawford hitting 5th - I'd prefer him 2nd, Upton 3rd, Longoria 4th and Pena 5th - but that lineup has depth and they're almost certainly going to add another bat for DH/OF.

Looking at the Yanks and Sawx, I'd take the Sawx lineup. It's deeper, with better threats in the 5-6-7 holes. Even if you want to argue that it's certainly not unreasonable to call it a draw between the two teams.

Even with the addition of Tex, a top notch glove at 1B, the Yankees are probably the worst defensive team of this group. Tex, A-Rod and Melky and Jeter is okay but the rest are question marks at best. Rays & Angels are the two best overall with the glove with the Sox right there with them.

Rotations:

Yankees
1. Sabathia
2. Wang
3. Burnett
4. Chamberlain
5. Hughes/Pettitte (if signed)

Red Sox
1. Beckett
2. Lester
3. Matsuzaka
4. Wakefield
5. Buchholz/Bowden/Free Agent

Rays
1. Kazmir
2. Shields
3. Garza
4. Sonnanstine
5. Price

Angels
1. Lackey
2. Santana
3. Weaver
4. Saunders
5. Moseley/Adenhart/Free Agent

Analysis: Again, the Yankees have a talented group but not one that necessarily separates itself from the crowd. All four teams have comparable depth and young players ready to step in at the bottom of the rotation in the even of an injury. Also, word is that the Sox and Angels are still considering free agent SP's.

None of these groups are significantly better than the others.

Bullpens:

Yankees
CL. Rivera
RP. Marte
RP. Veras
RP. Bruney
RP. Albaladejo/Free Agent
RP. Aceves/Free Agent

Red Sox
CL. Papelbon
RP. Okajima
RP. Masterson
RP. Delcarmen
RP. Aardsma
RP. Lopez

Rays
CL. Percival
RP. Balfour
RP. Wheeler
RP. Howell
RP. Bradford
RP. Salas

Angels
CL. Shields/Arredondo/Free Agent (Fuentes?)
RP. Shields/Arredondo
RP. Oliver
RP. Speier
RP. Jepsen
RP. Bulger

Analysis: Again, the Yankees don't stand out. Rivera and Papelbon are a wash but the rest of the Sox bullpen is much stronger. The Rays have a 9th inning problem if Percival isn't healthy (maybe even if he is) but they have some young talent to work with during the season, either as in-house replacements or for trade bait. The Angels seem likely to land Brian Fuentes and if they do I think their pen is 2nd on this list behind Boston's.

Keep in mind that none of that counts other potential contenders like Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit, Minnesota or Oakland. They're not at the level of the other four coming into the season but they have to be considered. Twins are always in the mix, the White Sox were the division champs, the Indians and Tigers were last season's biggest underachievers and the A's are gonna give it a shot to start 2009.

Let's not start handing out trophies to the Yankees just yet...

KW

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