Here is my ranking of the Top 100 prospects in baseball entering the 2009 season. In January I will be posting this list again along with commentary/analysis for each player...
When ranking prospects I include the following criteria: raw physical ability, age-relative performance evaluation and opportunity to advance.
In other words, there's more to this set of rankings than just the physical skills of each player.
It should also be noted that this is not an exact science. My Top 100 may be markedly different than what Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus or any other person/organization puts out. None of us are "right" when it comes to these kinds of rankings. It's all subjective, so if you don't see a guy here who made someone else's Top 100 that doesn't mean I feel like I know more than the folks putting together the other list, it just means I value the player involved differently.
Comments are welcome...
KW
2009 Top 100 Prospects
1. David Price, P (TB)
2. Matt LaPorta, OF (CLE)
3. Matt Wieters, C (BAL)
4. Travis Snider, OF (TOR)
5. Cameron Maybin, OF (FLA)
6. Jeff Samardzija, P (CHC)
7. Tommy Hanson, P (ATL)
8. Colby Rasmus, OF (STL)
9. Mike Stanton, OF (FLA)
10. Jason Heyward, OF (ATL)
11. Rick Porcello, P (DET)
12. Tyler Flowers, C (CHW)
13. Fernando Martinez, OF (NYM)
14. James McDonald, P (LAD)
15. Trevor Cahill, P (OAK)
16. Neftali Feliz, P (TEX)
17. Madison Bumgarner, P (SF)
18. Pedro Alvarez, 3B (PIT)
19. Andrew McCutchen, OF (PIT)
20. Chris Tillman, P (BAL)
21. Brett Anderson, P (OAK)
22. Alcides Escobar, SS (MIL)
23. Dexter Fowler, OF (COL)
24. Mike Moustakas, 3B (KC)
25. Jarrod Parker, P (ARZ)
26. Brett Wallace, 3B (STL)
27. Mat Gamel, 3B (MIL)
28. Kila Ka'aihue, 1B (KC)
29. Carlos Carrasco, P (PHI)
30. Elvis Andrus, SS (TEX)
31. Jake Arrieta, P (BAL)
32. Michael Bowden, P (BOS)
33. Michael Taylor, OF (PHI)
34. Jeremy Hellickson, P (TB)
35. Carlos Triunfel, SS (SEA)
36. Jordan Zimmerman, P (WAS)
37. Chris Perez, P (STL)
38. Lars Anderson, 1B (BOS)
39. Max Ramirez, C (TEX)
40. Tim Beckham, SS (TB)
41. Tim Alderson, P (SF)
42. Yonder Alonso, 1B (CIN)
43. Logan Morrison, 1B (FLA)
44. Junichi Tazawa, P (BOS)
45. Beau Mills, 1B (CLE)
46. Joulys Chacin, P (COL)
47. Aaron Hicks, OF (MIN)
48. Gordon Beckham, SS (CHW)
49. Josh Vitters, 3B (CHC)
50. Jason Donald, SS (PHI)
51. Angel Villalona, 1B (SF)
52. Wade Davis, P (TB)
53. Nick Weglarz, OF (CLE)
54. Freddie Freeman, 1B (ATL)
55. Jesus Montero, C (NYY)
56. Adam Miller, P (CLE)
57. Austin Jackson, OF (NYY)
58. Phillipe Aumont, P (SEA)
59. Jeff Niemann, P (TB)
60. Daryl Thompson, P (CIN)
61. Scott Elbert, P (LAD)
62. J.P. Arencibia, C (TOR)
63. Matt Dominguez, 3B (FLA)
64. Chris Carter, 1B (OAK)
65. Kyle Blanks, 1B (SD)
66. Wilmer Flores, SS (NYM)
67. Scott Lewis, P (CLE)
68. Lou Marson, C (PHI)
69. Carlos Santana, C (CLE)
70. Jordan Schafer, OF (ATL)
71. Buster Posey, C (SF)
72. Ivan DeJesus, SS (LAD)
73. Brett Cecil, P (TOR)
74. Kellen Kulbacki, OF (SD)
75. Ben Revere, OF (MIN)
76. Ryan Perry, P (DET)
77. Taylor Teagarden, C (TEX)
78. Chris Marrero, 1B (WAS)
79. Will Inman, P (SD)
80. Deolis Guerra, P (MIN)
81. Engel Beltre, OF (TEX)
82. Jemile Weeks, 2B (OAK)
83. Gaby Sanchez, 1B (FLA)
84. Jeremy Jeffress, P (MIL)
85. Nick Adenhart, P (LAA)
86. Michael Inoa, P (OAK)
87. Greg Halman, OF (SEA)
88. Dellin Betances, P (NYY)
89. Eric Hosmer, 1B (KC)
90. Jake McGee, P (TB)
91. Jon Niese, P (NYM)
92. Aaron Poreda, P (CHW)
93. Brian Matusz, P (BAL)
94. Michael Burgess, OF (WAS)
95. Daniel Bard, P (BOS)
96. Hank Conger, C (LAA)
97. Bradley Holt, P (NYM)
98. Chris Nelson, SS (COL)
99. Derek Holland, P (TEX)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA)
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I like where you have LaPorta (I have him on my keeper league CBS fantasy team). I also have Adenhart and Lars Anderson. This list will help me greatly as we draft our Minor leaguers for the 2009 season. I need 2 OF'ers and 1 IF'er to finish off my Minor League roster.
ReplyDeleteLaPorta's the real deal, good thing you got him when you did. Good luck w/ your minors draft and thanks for commenting....
ReplyDeleteKW
bahaha this list is a joke.
ReplyDeleteLars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.
And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
I agree. LaPorta is going to be an all around stud in the majors. Sad the Brewers had to give him up, but I'm looking forward to his success in the years to come.
ReplyDeleteBoy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people.
ReplyDelete"Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.
Check it out for yourself.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html
Rating prospects is not a science my man.
By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
At #72 you have Ivan DeJesus. Any relation to the Ivan DeJesus who used to play for the Cubs?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, one of the worst trades ever...DeJesus to the Phillies for Sandberg.
Good blog KW.
Denver Turfman
Did I miss Justin Smoak? I find it hard to believe he isn't in anyone's top 100.
ReplyDeleteYou didn't miss Smoak, I left him off. Barely...
ReplyDeleteHe'll probably be in most other Top 100's and I won't hesitate to acknowledge a potential mistake in leaving him off.
Smoak was one of the last guys I took out and I'm sure there are some other players I put in that will turn out to be mistakes.
Just the nature of the game when picking 100 guys out of more than 5,000 minor leaguers...
Finally someone who sees Jeremy Hellickson as the real deal, he could be better than Price. Thanks for the link Kev.
ReplyDeleteHere are my top 21 choices for my Minor League draft the second weekend in May. Remember, I don't have any room for any pitchers on my Minor League roster.
ReplyDelete1. Jason Heyward (OF-ATL)
2. Josh Vitters (3B-CHC)
3. Beau Mills (1B-CLE)
4. Logan Morrison (1B-FLA)
5. Brett Wallace (3B-STL)
6. Desmond Jennings (OF-TB)
7. Chris Carter (1B-OAK)
8. Juan Francisco (3B-CIN)
9. Elvis Andrus (SS-TEX)
10. Justin Ruggiano (OF-TB)
11. Nick Stavinoha (OF-STL)
12. Scott McClain (1B-SF)
13. Eric Hosmer (1B-KC)
14. Ivan Ochoa (SS-SF)
15. Mark Saccomanno (1B-HOU)
16. Nelson Cruz (OF-TEX)
17. Jeff Natale (2B-BOS)
18. Chris Duffy (OF-MIL)
19. Trevor Crowe (OF-CLE)
20. Jason Pridie (OF-MIN)
21. Howie Clark (1B-Min)
I get the 3rd, 15th, and 21st Minor League picks in our 12 team, keeper league.
Also, would you recommend picking up Colby Rasmus from STL if the opportunity arises itself? What would you give up for Rasmus?
my minor league roster is
ReplyDeletejustin smoks, brett wallace and Madison Bumgarner. I need a strong 2b/ss prospect who can hit 20hr in major.
I'm sorry but Matt Laporta is not the #2 prospect in all of baseball. He is more like #20. Jeff Samardzija at #6? He's more like #90. He was drilled in AAA this year. There are probably 15 pitchers who should be ranked ahead of James McDonald on this list including Neftali Feliz (the second best pitcher in the minors, Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Madison Bumgarner, Jhoulys Chacin (minor league pitcher of the year), Chris Tillman, Tim Alderson, Jarrod Parker, Brian Matusz (the best pitcher in college baseball not named Strasburg last year), Derek Holland etc. Having Holland at #99 is laughable, laughable!!! He's the second best prospect in the best prospect organization!! 95 people should be ranked ahead of Chris Perez on this list. I know it seems that you gave guys a HUGE bump because they will crack the minors this year, but come on. Kulbacki, Scott, Sanchez, Inman, Guerra, Raben, Nelson, Sanchez, Lewis, and Niemann should NOT be on this list? Where is Andrew Lambo? He's only the top rated Dodger prospect. Ferando Martinez? He's the second rated Mets prospect and was the youngest AA ball player two years ago and held his own. Oh, I think I'm getting sick. I should leave.
ReplyDeleteTyler -
ReplyDeleteFernando Martinez is #13. What's the problem with that?
Did you skip the beginning and just look at the list?
"When ranking prospects I include the following criteria: raw physical ability, age-relative performance evaluation and opportunity to advance."
Opportunity to advance. In other words, I rate guys higher each year based in part on whether or not they might contribute THAT SEASON. I realize that's not how Baseball America does it but that's how I do it and that was explained at the beginning.
This is the 2009 list. Lambo can be on the 2010 list. A lot of the guys you say shouldn't be here are here specifically because with strong performances they could see big league action in '09. Hence McDonald (who I also think is underrated by many) ahead of many of the guys you listed.
By the way, Lambo is a nice player but an .807 OPS at Low-A isn't all that thrilling to me. I realize he has a lot of talent but so do all of these guys. He did a nice job in 8 games at AA and in 17 games in the AFL but I put a little more stock in what he did in 123 games at an age-appropriate level.
I'm sure you're the expert and all but you just have to allow for different opinions. There is no conesensus on this stuff. It's not a science.
Many of the smartest prospects analysts in the business had guys like Andy Marte and Joel Guzman as top 10 prospects and that didn't work out. Papelbon was in the 90's.
I'm thinking there's plenty of room for different approaches and different opinions.
Why should I try to project which guys are going to be studs in 2010, 2011 or 2012 when it's hard enough to figure out who the best guys will be for 2009? I do a little projection (like w/ Inoa) but I tend to focus on the short term with my lists because it's a more common sense way of doing things.
KW