I'm shocked.
Floored.
Flabbergasted.
The Netherlands just eliminated the Dominican Republic from the World Baseball Classic in the 1st round...
Wow.
This game surely doesn't have the socio-political impact of the "Miracle On Ice" in Lake Placid, NY but it is certainly one of the biggest upsets I can think of.
A team of has-beens and never-weres - whose best hitter is remember more for his hit on a racing sausage than for his big league career - beats a collection of Major League All-Stars TWICE in four days to eliminate them from a tournament Team Dominicana cares deeply about.
Unreal.
These players from the Netherlands may not be Mike Eruzione, Jim Craig, Mark Johnson or Ken Morrow but they are certainly national heroes now.
Randall Simon?
Eugene Kingsale?
Yurendall de Caster?
Some dudes named Schoop, Stuifbergen and Duursma take out a powerhouse loaded with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz Miguel Tejada, Pedro Martinez, Robinson Cano, Jose Guillen and some of the best arms in the big leagues?
Amazing.
Gotta love the WBC...
KW
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Measuring Defense w/ Statistics - No Thanks
I really admire the work that people like John Dewan and Bill James do. They are pioneers in the world of baseball analysis and they, along with countless others, have helped change the way "baseball people" go about their business.
That said, I haven't found a single defensive statistic that I find terribly useful.
I love the concept behind Dewan's Plus/Minus system (http://www.fieldingbible.com/) but there are still too many things that are not quantifiable enough for me to buy into it completely. I also think some of Dewan's new "Defensive Runs Saved" concepts are interesting, yet unconvincing.
I should point out, right off the top, that to my knowledge Dewan doesn't promote either of these stats as "Be All, End All" of defensive evaluation.
The problem is that these things are all subjective, relying completely on the evaluations/decisions made by people watching video of Major League games. Even if those people are "baseball people" (former coaches, scouts, players, etc.) we're still talking about subjective analysis. "Baseball people" don't always see things the same way, afterall.
Now, defensive statistics are better than they used to be and maybe someday Dewan, James or some other forward thinker will have a break through and get it down pat. The problem, however, is there are too many defensive factors that simply cannot be measured.
Positioning, for example.
Let's say Player A has better physical ability than Player B. Quicker feet, better balance, stronger arm, more accurate arm, etc. If they're both in the same pre-pitch spot on the field Player A can make plays that Player B cannot.
On the other hand, Player B is a more "heady" player. He's more up to date on the tendencies of opposing hitters - and perhaps his team has more accurate scouting reports - and therefore he's in the correct position more often than Player A.
Player B could be making "routine" plays all the time because he's in the right position while Player A makes "excellent" plays, in part, because he's not in the best pre-pitch position.
Simply put, there is more to being a strong defensive player than physical skill. Preparation, anticipation and instinct are all significant factors in a player's ability to field his position and none of those factors are quantifiable.
Is the player in the proper pre-pitch position based on scouting information? Is he in tune with how his team is planning on pitching to the opposing hitters? Is he anticipating the play pre-pitch based on these factors?
Does the player throw to the right base consistently? Is the player a "heads-up" or "head in the clouds" kind of guy? Does he get into the proper relay position? Does he hit the cutoff man? How does he play the ball off the wall?
Is the player "saved" by his fellow defenders (like Mark Grace saving Shawon Dunston's butt all the time) or is he the one doing the "saving?"
I just don't see how anyone can place a numerical value on these things. They are bits of invaluable information when it comes to a player's ability to field his position and they are also immeasurable. You can see them with your own two eyes if you know what to look for, which most hardcore baseball observers do, but I just don't see how you can quantify it.
There are other more tangible factors that are not factored in, at least not to my knowledge or satisfaction...
1) Actual velocity of the ball hit (not just a generic term like "soft" or "hard" hit ball, actual MPH - any hitter will tell you, there is a distinct difference between 90 MPH and 95 MPH and when watching the game on video that difference won't be noticeable on a ball put into play)
2) The condition of the field (wet or dry, shorter grass or longer grass, etc. - it's not like every big league field is exactly the same)
3) Variation in spin/bounces (every ball hit is a little different - a "routine" ground ball right at a fielder isn't necessarily "routine" as some balls "kick" or "bite" at the last moment based on how they were hit)
4) Trajectory (was the ball hit at a 45-degree angle, 60-degree angle or 75-degree angle? did it have backspin or topspin? was the ball cutting or slicing? I need more detail than a simple "fly ball/line drive" label)
5) Conditions (sunny w/ a big sky? cloudy? windy? raining? twilight? shawdows? those are all factors in how plays get made, especially difficult plays)
All of those things are "known" factors but they cannot be easily converted into a number. Without those pieces of information nobody can come to an accurate conclusion about the quality of a player's defensive game. Maybe some of that evens out over the course of a 162-game season but not all of it does.
The aforementioned defensive statistics can be helpful when it comes to filling in the blanks on some players when people just don't have the time/ability to judge for themselves, but they're just not complete enough for me to value them over scouting information.
There is just no logical way to turn pages and pages of scouting information into a number. Even though "real" scouts use the 1-8 scale to grade players' physical ability (which I don't much like either) it is included in a detailed report that provides some of the nuance/detail I wrote about above. Plus, most of the "tools" scouts are grading can be measured - velocity on throws, bat speed, 60-yard dash time, home-to-first time, etc.
What all of these defensive statistics come down to, essentially, is a human being assigning a number to a play based on his own subjective analysis. In that sense, defensive statistics are no different than the subjective analysis in a scouting report.
Defensive statistics cannot provide the type of detail a written or spoken-word report can.
Then again, the defensive statistics themselves aren't the real problem.
It's the people who use them improperly - replacing detailed professional analysis with a number - that are probably at the root of my frustration....
KW
That said, I haven't found a single defensive statistic that I find terribly useful.
I love the concept behind Dewan's Plus/Minus system (http://www.fieldingbible.com/) but there are still too many things that are not quantifiable enough for me to buy into it completely. I also think some of Dewan's new "Defensive Runs Saved" concepts are interesting, yet unconvincing.
I should point out, right off the top, that to my knowledge Dewan doesn't promote either of these stats as "Be All, End All" of defensive evaluation.
The problem is that these things are all subjective, relying completely on the evaluations/decisions made by people watching video of Major League games. Even if those people are "baseball people" (former coaches, scouts, players, etc.) we're still talking about subjective analysis. "Baseball people" don't always see things the same way, afterall.
Now, defensive statistics are better than they used to be and maybe someday Dewan, James or some other forward thinker will have a break through and get it down pat. The problem, however, is there are too many defensive factors that simply cannot be measured.
Positioning, for example.
Let's say Player A has better physical ability than Player B. Quicker feet, better balance, stronger arm, more accurate arm, etc. If they're both in the same pre-pitch spot on the field Player A can make plays that Player B cannot.
On the other hand, Player B is a more "heady" player. He's more up to date on the tendencies of opposing hitters - and perhaps his team has more accurate scouting reports - and therefore he's in the correct position more often than Player A.
Player B could be making "routine" plays all the time because he's in the right position while Player A makes "excellent" plays, in part, because he's not in the best pre-pitch position.
Simply put, there is more to being a strong defensive player than physical skill. Preparation, anticipation and instinct are all significant factors in a player's ability to field his position and none of those factors are quantifiable.
Is the player in the proper pre-pitch position based on scouting information? Is he in tune with how his team is planning on pitching to the opposing hitters? Is he anticipating the play pre-pitch based on these factors?
Does the player throw to the right base consistently? Is the player a "heads-up" or "head in the clouds" kind of guy? Does he get into the proper relay position? Does he hit the cutoff man? How does he play the ball off the wall?
Is the player "saved" by his fellow defenders (like Mark Grace saving Shawon Dunston's butt all the time) or is he the one doing the "saving?"
I just don't see how anyone can place a numerical value on these things. They are bits of invaluable information when it comes to a player's ability to field his position and they are also immeasurable. You can see them with your own two eyes if you know what to look for, which most hardcore baseball observers do, but I just don't see how you can quantify it.
There are other more tangible factors that are not factored in, at least not to my knowledge or satisfaction...
1) Actual velocity of the ball hit (not just a generic term like "soft" or "hard" hit ball, actual MPH - any hitter will tell you, there is a distinct difference between 90 MPH and 95 MPH and when watching the game on video that difference won't be noticeable on a ball put into play)
2) The condition of the field (wet or dry, shorter grass or longer grass, etc. - it's not like every big league field is exactly the same)
3) Variation in spin/bounces (every ball hit is a little different - a "routine" ground ball right at a fielder isn't necessarily "routine" as some balls "kick" or "bite" at the last moment based on how they were hit)
4) Trajectory (was the ball hit at a 45-degree angle, 60-degree angle or 75-degree angle? did it have backspin or topspin? was the ball cutting or slicing? I need more detail than a simple "fly ball/line drive" label)
5) Conditions (sunny w/ a big sky? cloudy? windy? raining? twilight? shawdows? those are all factors in how plays get made, especially difficult plays)
All of those things are "known" factors but they cannot be easily converted into a number. Without those pieces of information nobody can come to an accurate conclusion about the quality of a player's defensive game. Maybe some of that evens out over the course of a 162-game season but not all of it does.
The aforementioned defensive statistics can be helpful when it comes to filling in the blanks on some players when people just don't have the time/ability to judge for themselves, but they're just not complete enough for me to value them over scouting information.
There is just no logical way to turn pages and pages of scouting information into a number. Even though "real" scouts use the 1-8 scale to grade players' physical ability (which I don't much like either) it is included in a detailed report that provides some of the nuance/detail I wrote about above. Plus, most of the "tools" scouts are grading can be measured - velocity on throws, bat speed, 60-yard dash time, home-to-first time, etc.
What all of these defensive statistics come down to, essentially, is a human being assigning a number to a play based on his own subjective analysis. In that sense, defensive statistics are no different than the subjective analysis in a scouting report.
Defensive statistics cannot provide the type of detail a written or spoken-word report can.
Then again, the defensive statistics themselves aren't the real problem.
It's the people who use them improperly - replacing detailed professional analysis with a number - that are probably at the root of my frustration....
KW
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Baseball Gods 2009 Power Rankings (as of March 7)
Here's how I see things right now. Lots can change between now and Opening Day and I will update the Power Rankings again just before the regular season starts as part of my preview/predictions for 2009.
Comments welcome...
1. Red Sox - Bullpen gives them the edge over the Yankees
2. Yankees - Even with the potential loss of A-Rod the Yanks are still loaded
3. Phillies - World Champs might be better than they were in '08
4. Cubs - Sure, they have questions but they also have the most talented team in the NL
5. Angels - Love the addition of Abreu, gives them an OBP guy to go with the Free Swingers
6. Dodgers - With Manny in the fold from Day One the Dodgers are an elite NL squad
7. Mets - If Santana's elbow becomes a problem the Mets slip on this list by Opening Day
8. Rays - They should be even better than '08 if someone takes charge in the 9th
9. Indians - Bullpen is better and I expect rebound years from Carmona & V-Mart
10. Diamondbacks - Offense may be erratic but pitching is very good
11. Twins - Somehow they always find a way to hang in there
12. White Sox - Could be a team that slips in by April 6 depending on bottom of rotation
13. Cardinals - Could move up or down by Opening Day; so far things look okay
14. A's - Love the additions of Halladay and Giambi; they could move up
15. Tigers - They'll hit the ball for sure but their pitching will dictate where they finish
16. Braves - Not enough offense and too many pitching questions; could slip in the rankings
17. Marlins - Love the young talent here; could be a sleeper
18. Brewers - Like the Tigers of the NL; plenty of offense, not enough pitching
19. Blue Jays - They're just a little short on both offense and pitching
20. Giants - Great pitching, not enough offense; finally seem headed in right direction though
21. Astros - Pitching is horrible after Oswalt; they'll hit if they're healthy though
22. Rockies - Like the Blue Jays, just a little short all-around
23. Reds - Love the move toward athleticism but don't see enough run production
24. Rangers - Another team that can mash that's lacking in pitching
25. Orioles - Only one legit starter but I like the move toward young, athletic hitters
26. Royals - Not buying the buzz that they could be better this year. How?
27. Nationals - Pitching will come along but they still have more questions than answers
28. Pirates - Don't like their offense at all and pitching staff is loaded with enigmas
29. Mariners - Some good young pitchers for sure but lineup stinks out loud
30. Padres - Not enough pitching + not enough hitting + not enough defense = worst in MLB
KW
Comments welcome...
1. Red Sox - Bullpen gives them the edge over the Yankees
2. Yankees - Even with the potential loss of A-Rod the Yanks are still loaded
3. Phillies - World Champs might be better than they were in '08
4. Cubs - Sure, they have questions but they also have the most talented team in the NL
5. Angels - Love the addition of Abreu, gives them an OBP guy to go with the Free Swingers
6. Dodgers - With Manny in the fold from Day One the Dodgers are an elite NL squad
7. Mets - If Santana's elbow becomes a problem the Mets slip on this list by Opening Day
8. Rays - They should be even better than '08 if someone takes charge in the 9th
9. Indians - Bullpen is better and I expect rebound years from Carmona & V-Mart
10. Diamondbacks - Offense may be erratic but pitching is very good
11. Twins - Somehow they always find a way to hang in there
12. White Sox - Could be a team that slips in by April 6 depending on bottom of rotation
13. Cardinals - Could move up or down by Opening Day; so far things look okay
14. A's - Love the additions of Halladay and Giambi; they could move up
15. Tigers - They'll hit the ball for sure but their pitching will dictate where they finish
16. Braves - Not enough offense and too many pitching questions; could slip in the rankings
17. Marlins - Love the young talent here; could be a sleeper
18. Brewers - Like the Tigers of the NL; plenty of offense, not enough pitching
19. Blue Jays - They're just a little short on both offense and pitching
20. Giants - Great pitching, not enough offense; finally seem headed in right direction though
21. Astros - Pitching is horrible after Oswalt; they'll hit if they're healthy though
22. Rockies - Like the Blue Jays, just a little short all-around
23. Reds - Love the move toward athleticism but don't see enough run production
24. Rangers - Another team that can mash that's lacking in pitching
25. Orioles - Only one legit starter but I like the move toward young, athletic hitters
26. Royals - Not buying the buzz that they could be better this year. How?
27. Nationals - Pitching will come along but they still have more questions than answers
28. Pirates - Don't like their offense at all and pitching staff is loaded with enigmas
29. Mariners - Some good young pitchers for sure but lineup stinks out loud
30. Padres - Not enough pitching + not enough hitting + not enough defense = worst in MLB
KW
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Programming Note
Just dropping in a little somethin-somethin to let you know that I'm making a change in how I do things here...
I'm cutting off the 2009 Power Rankings team profiles and doing the same for the Top 100 Prospects individual profiles because they just take too damn long to do, plus they're like War and Peace.
Based on time restrictions with my real job, and on advice from lots of friends (in and out of the sports media business), I've come to the decision that a lot of short posts with timely observations will work better than a smaller number long posts that take a lot more time to write and read.
From here on out things will be of the more quick-hitting variety. I'll post the full 2009 Power Rankings next up and save the details for responses to comments/e-mails.
E-mail if you ever have questions, comments, opinions, suggestions, etc.
KW
thebaseballgods@gmail.com
I'm cutting off the 2009 Power Rankings team profiles and doing the same for the Top 100 Prospects individual profiles because they just take too damn long to do, plus they're like War and Peace.
Based on time restrictions with my real job, and on advice from lots of friends (in and out of the sports media business), I've come to the decision that a lot of short posts with timely observations will work better than a smaller number long posts that take a lot more time to write and read.
From here on out things will be of the more quick-hitting variety. I'll post the full 2009 Power Rankings next up and save the details for responses to comments/e-mails.
E-mail if you ever have questions, comments, opinions, suggestions, etc.
KW
thebaseballgods@gmail.com
Thursday, February 26, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #20
( #'s 21-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
20. San Francisco Giants
If these guys had a couple more proven, veteran run producers in the middle of the order they be more of a sure thing as a contender in the NL. They'd also be higher on this list...
The pitching looks just fine, thank you very much, but they'll need some kids to have strong offensive seasons if they're going to make a push for the playoffs. Things are going to be interesting in San Fran this summer.
LINEUP
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected starting lineup:
C. Bengie Molina
1B. Travis Ishikawa
2B. Kevin Frandsen
3B. Pablo Sandoval
SS. Edgar Renteria
LF. Fred Lewis
CF. Aaron Rowand
RF. Randy Winn
Wow, not a lot of pop there. They will put the ball in play, however, and they have a couple of guys who can run so they'll have to scrap and claw to score runs.
Molina isn't an elite hitter but he did drive in 95 runs last season and figures to bat cleanup again this year. Bengie's still a heck of a glove man, too. Ishikawa is a very interesting player. The 25 year-old hit .299/.377/.578 (24 HR) at Double-A and Triple-A combined last season, with the bulk of that coming at the higher level. Could be a sleeper as an emerging hitter this year, though he's not a big upside guy. I'm not buying Frandsen as an everyday player at 2B, just not enough offense for this team. I suspect Emmanuel Burris (a real burner) and Eugenio Velez will get plenty of time there as well. Sandoval is a very interesting guy. He hit .350/.394/.578 in the minors last season and then .345/.357/.490 in 145 big league AB's. Was a catcher in the minors (and could still see occasional action behind the dish), played 1B for the G'men last year and now moves to 3B. Renteria has always been a better player in the NL than in the AL but I don't trust him. Cold weather seems to bother him and SF isn't exactly tropical early or late in the season.
Lewis emerged as a solid Major League outfielder last season. Not a home run guy but does hit doubles and triples, plus he'll take a walk and can swipe a bag here and there. Rowand was a disappointment last season and needs a bounce back season. I don't think it's fair to expect him to hit 25 HR but he does need to kick the average up to the .300 range and drive in some more runs. Winn has always been a nice, solid player but would be a better fit on a team with more pop in the rest of the OF. The good news for him as that the Giants don't have other options ready to push him.
Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and Nate Schierholtz are bench guys who could see somewhat regular playing time if they get hot.
There are some more young hitters on the way as well. C Buster Posey seems to be the heir apparent to Molina, a catcher with big offensive upside. 3B Conor Gillaspie is a good hitter who could be a factor as well, especially if Ishikawa and/or Sandoval struggle. Further down the road is power-hitting prospect 1B Angel Villalona - he's 2-3 years away.
PITCHING
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
This is an excellent rotation. Lincecum, the '08 NL Cy Young Award winner, is as good as there is in the game today. Don't let Cain's 8-14 record last year fool you, he's a stud. Every team in baseball would take him in their rotation. Johnson was 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 K's in 86 IP after the All-Star break in '08. He's still got it, it's just a matter of how many innings he'll be able to go. Zito was actually not terrible after the break last year (6-5, 4.59 ERA) and if he does that for all of '09 this team will really benefit from it. Sanchez was erratic in his first full season as a big league starter last year but his stuff is electric (157 K in 158 IP) and he's still only 26.
The team also has Noah Lowry on the outside looking in and recovering from arm problems. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Sanchez for a bat at some point, if Lowry is healthy of course.
Another reason why the team might be willing to move Sanchez - and maybe Cain down the road as well - is that they've got a couple of high-end pitching prospects on the way. 20 year-old Tim Alderson figures to start this season at Double-A, so he's close. The 6'6" right hander is very polished and pretty much dominated the hitter-friendly California League as a teenager last season. 6'4" lefty Madison Bumgarner is a year behind Alderson but he's a good one (15-3, 1.46 ERA and 164 K/21 BB in 141 2/3 IP at Low-A in '08). He could see Double-A as a 19 year-old in '09.
CL. Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 saves last season but I don't trust him. His control is erratic and he posted a scary 4.62 ERA in '08. He just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy who throws in the mid-to-upper 90's. Maybe he gets better this year but I'm still not 100% sold.
Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt will be the top setup man and leading candidates for saves if Wilson struggles. Sergio Romo posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 Major League games last season and he should also have a significant role.
OVERVIEW
There is a chance, with good health, that the Giants could push for the NL West title this season. They'd need a breakout performance or two on offense - or a trade of pitching for hitting - but they're a lot closer to being where they want to be now than they were just a year ago.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
20. San Francisco Giants
If these guys had a couple more proven, veteran run producers in the middle of the order they be more of a sure thing as a contender in the NL. They'd also be higher on this list...
The pitching looks just fine, thank you very much, but they'll need some kids to have strong offensive seasons if they're going to make a push for the playoffs. Things are going to be interesting in San Fran this summer.
LINEUP
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected starting lineup:
C. Bengie Molina
1B. Travis Ishikawa
2B. Kevin Frandsen
3B. Pablo Sandoval
SS. Edgar Renteria
LF. Fred Lewis
CF. Aaron Rowand
RF. Randy Winn
Wow, not a lot of pop there. They will put the ball in play, however, and they have a couple of guys who can run so they'll have to scrap and claw to score runs.
Molina isn't an elite hitter but he did drive in 95 runs last season and figures to bat cleanup again this year. Bengie's still a heck of a glove man, too. Ishikawa is a very interesting player. The 25 year-old hit .299/.377/.578 (24 HR) at Double-A and Triple-A combined last season, with the bulk of that coming at the higher level. Could be a sleeper as an emerging hitter this year, though he's not a big upside guy. I'm not buying Frandsen as an everyday player at 2B, just not enough offense for this team. I suspect Emmanuel Burris (a real burner) and Eugenio Velez will get plenty of time there as well. Sandoval is a very interesting guy. He hit .350/.394/.578 in the minors last season and then .345/.357/.490 in 145 big league AB's. Was a catcher in the minors (and could still see occasional action behind the dish), played 1B for the G'men last year and now moves to 3B. Renteria has always been a better player in the NL than in the AL but I don't trust him. Cold weather seems to bother him and SF isn't exactly tropical early or late in the season.
Lewis emerged as a solid Major League outfielder last season. Not a home run guy but does hit doubles and triples, plus he'll take a walk and can swipe a bag here and there. Rowand was a disappointment last season and needs a bounce back season. I don't think it's fair to expect him to hit 25 HR but he does need to kick the average up to the .300 range and drive in some more runs. Winn has always been a nice, solid player but would be a better fit on a team with more pop in the rest of the OF. The good news for him as that the Giants don't have other options ready to push him.
Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and Nate Schierholtz are bench guys who could see somewhat regular playing time if they get hot.
There are some more young hitters on the way as well. C Buster Posey seems to be the heir apparent to Molina, a catcher with big offensive upside. 3B Conor Gillaspie is a good hitter who could be a factor as well, especially if Ishikawa and/or Sandoval struggle. Further down the road is power-hitting prospect 1B Angel Villalona - he's 2-3 years away.
PITCHING
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
This is an excellent rotation. Lincecum, the '08 NL Cy Young Award winner, is as good as there is in the game today. Don't let Cain's 8-14 record last year fool you, he's a stud. Every team in baseball would take him in their rotation. Johnson was 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 K's in 86 IP after the All-Star break in '08. He's still got it, it's just a matter of how many innings he'll be able to go. Zito was actually not terrible after the break last year (6-5, 4.59 ERA) and if he does that for all of '09 this team will really benefit from it. Sanchez was erratic in his first full season as a big league starter last year but his stuff is electric (157 K in 158 IP) and he's still only 26.
The team also has Noah Lowry on the outside looking in and recovering from arm problems. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Sanchez for a bat at some point, if Lowry is healthy of course.
Another reason why the team might be willing to move Sanchez - and maybe Cain down the road as well - is that they've got a couple of high-end pitching prospects on the way. 20 year-old Tim Alderson figures to start this season at Double-A, so he's close. The 6'6" right hander is very polished and pretty much dominated the hitter-friendly California League as a teenager last season. 6'4" lefty Madison Bumgarner is a year behind Alderson but he's a good one (15-3, 1.46 ERA and 164 K/21 BB in 141 2/3 IP at Low-A in '08). He could see Double-A as a 19 year-old in '09.
CL. Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 saves last season but I don't trust him. His control is erratic and he posted a scary 4.62 ERA in '08. He just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy who throws in the mid-to-upper 90's. Maybe he gets better this year but I'm still not 100% sold.
Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt will be the top setup man and leading candidates for saves if Wilson struggles. Sergio Romo posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 Major League games last season and he should also have a significant role.
OVERVIEW
There is a chance, with good health, that the Giants could push for the NL West title this season. They'd need a breakout performance or two on offense - or a trade of pitching for hitting - but they're a lot closer to being where they want to be now than they were just a year ago.
KW
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #21
( #'s 22-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
21. Houston Astros
If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.
Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."
All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.
LINEUP
According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence
My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.
Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.
Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."
David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.
There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.
PITCHING
According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler
Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.
The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.
The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.
CL. Jose Valverde
Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.
OVERVIEW
The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.
The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
21. Houston Astros
If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.
Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."
All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.
LINEUP
According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence
My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.
Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.
Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."
David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.
There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.
PITCHING
According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler
Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.
The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.
The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.
CL. Jose Valverde
Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.
OVERVIEW
The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.
The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.
KW
Thursday, February 19, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #22
( #'s 23-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
22. Colorado Rockies
It's hard to believe the Rockies fell as flat as they did in 2008. Okay, maybe it's not. Maybe they just went on a ridiculous run in a weak division and just stayed hot until they ran into the buzz saw that was the Boston Red Sox.
Fluke or not, the Rockies have taken a step or two back and are now in "building" mode. That is not the same as "rebuilding" mode, which is a bit worse.
There are some pieces to work with but they need a few guys to bounce back and be productive at the plate, plus they need a pitcher or two to become much more consistent. The news got worse today on the pitching front as the team will lose lefty Jeff Francis for the season to shoulder surgery.
LINEUP
According to the Rockies' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Chris Iannetta
1B. Todd Helton
2B. Clint Barmes
3B. Garrett Atkins
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Seth Smith
CF. Ryan Spillborghs
RF. Brad Hawpe
Iannetta is a player I like quite a bit. The only question about him right now is whether or not he can do in 500 at-bats what he did in 333 AB in '08 (.895 OPS, 18 HR). I think he can.
Helton is a major question mark even if he's healthy, which is certainly no guarantee. That said, I think the Rockies have enough players that can help fill in at 1B that they'll be okay here unless Helton struggles and Clint Hurdle plays him anyway. Jeff Baker and Joe Koshansky can play 1B, plus the team could shift Garrett Atkins over and play Ian Stewart at 3B.
I don't know what to make of Barmes as an everyday player. He has ability and can play his position but I don't look at him as a "known" commodity for '09. Atkins is a proven hitter who I expect to keep producing good numbers. Don't see any major improvement or decline from him this season. I really think Tulowitzki is going to have a strong bounce-back season in '09. He'd better, otherwise the Rockies will be in big trouble. Expect something along the lines of what he did in '07.
Boy does that outfield look weak without Matt Holliday. Seth Smith listed as the starter in LF? That's gotta be a typo. I'd sooner try Stewart or Baker out there just to get their bats in the lineup. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlos Gonzalez out there. Maybe even Ryan Spillborghs, currently set to start in CF, if Dexter Fowler emerges in CF. Obviously Brad Hawpe is just fine in RF, I'd say expect more of what you've already seen from him.
I have to believe that the outfield by the end of 2009 will be Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe. I just don't think Spillborghs is an everyday player, nor is Smith. Maybe Matt Murton is a sleeper in LF, but even that's a bit of a stretch if you ask me.
As for the prospects to look for, well, Gonzalez and Fowler are about it for this year. None of the team's other offensive prospets - unless you still count Koshansky - are ready for prime time just yet. I think Gonzalez and Fowler can both be impact players, so if the team isn't in contention this year I'd recommend getting them a lot of playing time.
PITCHING
According to the Rockies' official website, here is their projected rotation and closer:
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge De La Rosa
5. Greg Smith
That's actually not a bad group of starters, to be honest. Cook has turned into a solid Major League starter who pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground and therefore in the ballpark. Jimenez has a world of ability, he just needs to throw strikes consistently. Easily the best stuff on the team and the highest upside - also keeps the ball in the park, but unlike Cook strikes people out too. I'm not sure I understand where Marquis is going to be of much help to the Rocks. He's too inconsistent. Maybe they just want innings from him. De La Rosa has talent - and misses plenty of bats - but again, too inconsistent. I could do without him. Smith is okay, though I'm worried about his home run tendencies (21 HR in 190 1/3 IP in '08 in a pitcher's park). K-to-BB ratio not great either. Worth giving a shot, though.
Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsch and Greg Reynolds could also figure into the mix. I really like Morales and Hirsch - if they're both healthy I think they'll make a lot of starts for the Rockies in '09. They have higher upside than guys like Marquis and De La Rosa.
CL. Huston Street/Manny Corpas
Both pitchers are listed as "closers" on the team's website, but I have to think Corpas gets the first shot unless Street has an amazing spring. The best thing for the franchise, however, might be to have Street close to start the season and perform well, thus enhancing his trade value. Corpas is a little better right now, IMO.
Taylor Buchholz is an excellent setup man who I think has the stuff to close if necessary. Alan Embree is a decent lefty.
Right hander Jhoulys Chacin and left hander Christian Friedrich should come along pretty quickly over the next season or two. They're both extremely talented, though Chacin has more upside to me. Casey Weathers may be the closer of the future - he's got great stuff but needs to refine his command.
OVERVIEW
This franchise isn't an a terrible place, they're just in what appears to be a transition year. Their only chance at really doing anything this season would be to have several young guys emerge along with Helton having a resurgent season. If the team doesn't think Gonzalez is ready to play in LF, I'd advise trying to find at-bats for Baker and Stewart.
The best news for '09? The Padres will keep the Rockies from even having a chance at finishing in last place. I do think the future is relatively bright in the Mile High city.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
22. Colorado Rockies
It's hard to believe the Rockies fell as flat as they did in 2008. Okay, maybe it's not. Maybe they just went on a ridiculous run in a weak division and just stayed hot until they ran into the buzz saw that was the Boston Red Sox.
Fluke or not, the Rockies have taken a step or two back and are now in "building" mode. That is not the same as "rebuilding" mode, which is a bit worse.
There are some pieces to work with but they need a few guys to bounce back and be productive at the plate, plus they need a pitcher or two to become much more consistent. The news got worse today on the pitching front as the team will lose lefty Jeff Francis for the season to shoulder surgery.
LINEUP
According to the Rockies' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Chris Iannetta
1B. Todd Helton
2B. Clint Barmes
3B. Garrett Atkins
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Seth Smith
CF. Ryan Spillborghs
RF. Brad Hawpe
Iannetta is a player I like quite a bit. The only question about him right now is whether or not he can do in 500 at-bats what he did in 333 AB in '08 (.895 OPS, 18 HR). I think he can.
Helton is a major question mark even if he's healthy, which is certainly no guarantee. That said, I think the Rockies have enough players that can help fill in at 1B that they'll be okay here unless Helton struggles and Clint Hurdle plays him anyway. Jeff Baker and Joe Koshansky can play 1B, plus the team could shift Garrett Atkins over and play Ian Stewart at 3B.
I don't know what to make of Barmes as an everyday player. He has ability and can play his position but I don't look at him as a "known" commodity for '09. Atkins is a proven hitter who I expect to keep producing good numbers. Don't see any major improvement or decline from him this season. I really think Tulowitzki is going to have a strong bounce-back season in '09. He'd better, otherwise the Rockies will be in big trouble. Expect something along the lines of what he did in '07.
Boy does that outfield look weak without Matt Holliday. Seth Smith listed as the starter in LF? That's gotta be a typo. I'd sooner try Stewart or Baker out there just to get their bats in the lineup. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlos Gonzalez out there. Maybe even Ryan Spillborghs, currently set to start in CF, if Dexter Fowler emerges in CF. Obviously Brad Hawpe is just fine in RF, I'd say expect more of what you've already seen from him.
I have to believe that the outfield by the end of 2009 will be Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe. I just don't think Spillborghs is an everyday player, nor is Smith. Maybe Matt Murton is a sleeper in LF, but even that's a bit of a stretch if you ask me.
As for the prospects to look for, well, Gonzalez and Fowler are about it for this year. None of the team's other offensive prospets - unless you still count Koshansky - are ready for prime time just yet. I think Gonzalez and Fowler can both be impact players, so if the team isn't in contention this year I'd recommend getting them a lot of playing time.
PITCHING
According to the Rockies' official website, here is their projected rotation and closer:
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge De La Rosa
5. Greg Smith
That's actually not a bad group of starters, to be honest. Cook has turned into a solid Major League starter who pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground and therefore in the ballpark. Jimenez has a world of ability, he just needs to throw strikes consistently. Easily the best stuff on the team and the highest upside - also keeps the ball in the park, but unlike Cook strikes people out too. I'm not sure I understand where Marquis is going to be of much help to the Rocks. He's too inconsistent. Maybe they just want innings from him. De La Rosa has talent - and misses plenty of bats - but again, too inconsistent. I could do without him. Smith is okay, though I'm worried about his home run tendencies (21 HR in 190 1/3 IP in '08 in a pitcher's park). K-to-BB ratio not great either. Worth giving a shot, though.
Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsch and Greg Reynolds could also figure into the mix. I really like Morales and Hirsch - if they're both healthy I think they'll make a lot of starts for the Rockies in '09. They have higher upside than guys like Marquis and De La Rosa.
CL. Huston Street/Manny Corpas
Both pitchers are listed as "closers" on the team's website, but I have to think Corpas gets the first shot unless Street has an amazing spring. The best thing for the franchise, however, might be to have Street close to start the season and perform well, thus enhancing his trade value. Corpas is a little better right now, IMO.
Taylor Buchholz is an excellent setup man who I think has the stuff to close if necessary. Alan Embree is a decent lefty.
Right hander Jhoulys Chacin and left hander Christian Friedrich should come along pretty quickly over the next season or two. They're both extremely talented, though Chacin has more upside to me. Casey Weathers may be the closer of the future - he's got great stuff but needs to refine his command.
OVERVIEW
This franchise isn't an a terrible place, they're just in what appears to be a transition year. Their only chance at really doing anything this season would be to have several young guys emerge along with Helton having a resurgent season. If the team doesn't think Gonzalez is ready to play in LF, I'd advise trying to find at-bats for Baker and Stewart.
The best news for '09? The Padres will keep the Rockies from even having a chance at finishing in last place. I do think the future is relatively bright in the Mile High city.
KW
Monday, February 16, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #23
Before I get started, just wanted to let you know that all my posts this week are originating from Cardinals Spring Training camp in Jupiter, FL. I'm down here covering the Cards for my real job at KMOX and loving every minute of it...
Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.
( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
23. Cincinnati Reds
You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.
Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.
They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.
LINEUP
According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce
Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.
The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.
As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.
PITCHING
According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:
1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings
Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.
The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.
CL. Francisco Cordero
In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.
David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.
As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.
OVERVIEW
The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.
KW
Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.
( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
23. Cincinnati Reds
You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.
Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.
They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.
LINEUP
According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce
Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.
The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.
As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.
PITCHING
According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:
1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings
Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.
The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.
CL. Francisco Cordero
In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.
David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.
As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.
OVERVIEW
The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.
KW
Sunday, February 15, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #24
I've decided to remove the "early" part of the Power Rankings title because at the rate I'm going this won't be done "early" afterall.
Now, back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings...
( #'s 25-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
24. Texas Rangers
As usual, the Rangers have a pretty good looking everyday lineup and a questionable pitching staff. They've got some kids coming along here in the next year or two that could balance out the pitching end of the spectrum, but that's not likely going to help much in 2009.
As I said with the Orioles, however, this is an organization that appears to be in the beginning stages of righting the ship. They have some incredible, high-end offensive talent, a farm system that is improving and some bad pitching contracts that are getting closer to their expiration dates.
2009 could be a "stepping stone" year for this franchise and I'm very curious to see how some of their "situations" shake out.
LINEUP
According to the team's official website, here are the Rangers' projected starters:
C. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B. Chris Davis
2B. Ian Kinsler
3B. Michael Young
SS. Elvis Andrus
LF. David Murphy
CF. Josh Hamilton
RF. Nelson Cruz
DH. Hank Blalock
That is a lineup with a lot of offensive ability. If everyone's healthy this could be one of the five highest scoring teams in baseball, especially when you consider where they play their home games.
Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter behind the dish but with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez also in the mix you just never know. I think Salty has the highest overall upside of the three players but that's just me. Tegarden is better defender than Salty, but I like Salty's offense better. Ramirez may be a better pure hitter than Salty, but I like Salty's defense better. In short, Saltalamacchia is the best all-around catcher they have. I also think he's going to have a breakout season if they just stick with him from Opening Day through the end of the season. Teagarden and Ramirez would both make for good trade bait.
Davis is a masher at 1B and looks like a guy who will hit a lot of home runs for a long, long time. I'm a fan. Kinsler may be the game's best all-around 2B. He does it all and gives this team a distinct edge over others because of the offense they get from a position that doesn't always deliver production. Young accepting the move over to 3B was huge because it makes them better defensively. He's not a bad SS, it's just that Andrus is better at SS than Young and Young is more gifted defensively than Blalock or Davis. Plus, Young's a good bat. Andrus is the question mark in the infield but I think he'll be fine if they stick with him. His glove is a plus, he's got good speed and is a stolen base threat, plus I think he can develop some pop. Andrus looks like a future All-Star to me.
Hamilton is the best all-around player on the team and one of the 5-10 best all-around players in the game. I expect Hamilton to be an MVP candidate year-in and year-out moving forward, barring injury of course. He's a flat out stud. Murphy is a nice player in LF but I don't see a lot of upside there. He does a lot of things well, though, and is a very useful player. Cruz has all kinds of offensive potential but this is a make-or-break season for him. After mashing in Triple-A last year he carried that production to the Major League level at the end of the season. If he hits, he plays. If not, see ya later Nelson.
Marlon Byrd gives the Rangers and excellent 4th OF option. He can play all over the outfield, he's got a little pop and he runs well. The sleeper in the mix is Andruw Jones, invited to camp on a minor league deal. If he hits at all during Spring Training the Rangers will have to make room for him somehow. Jones picked the right spot to rejuvenate his offensive career - no place is more hitter friendly these days than Arlington. If Andruw has an impressive spring, I'd bet on him taking over in CF with Hamilton sliding over to RF and Murphy/Cruz forming a LF platoon. I wouldn't bet the house on Jones, though. His problems have all been in his head and that's something that's tough to break out of.
Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Arias, German Duran and Brandon Boggs are around as well. The one that is most interesting is Arias, who could wind up at SS if Andrus struggles.
Most of the Rangers' best offensive prospects were covered above and none of the rest figure to have any impact in the Majors this season. 1B Justin Smoak is a big-time hitter but he was just drafted in '08. OF Julio Borbon is a speed demon but I don't see how he fits in any way this season. OF Engel Beltre is 2-3 years off but he's a 5-tool talent who could be a star eventually.
PITCHERS
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy
This is where things start to turn the wrong way.
I think Millwood would be a decent 4th or 5th starter on a National League team but he's not lasting as deep into games as he used to and doesn't miss enough bats either. Padilla isn't awful but he's also more of a 4th/5th starter on a decent team because he's too erratic. He also happens to be vastly overpaid. To me, Feldman is just not a Major League starting pitcher. His strikeout to walk ratio stunk last season, he gives up too many hits and would be better off working out of the bullpen. Harrison has some ability and is probably capable of being a decent 4th/5th starter this season but he doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter. McCarthy intrigues me. He only made 5 starts for the Rangers last season but if he's healthy he could be another decent 3-4-5 starter. Not a high-end guy, though.
Jason Jennings (if healthy), Dustin Nippert and Kason Gabbard could also factor into the mix. I've always liked Nippert as a potential 3-4-5 starter and I think the team would be better off with him in the rotation and Feldman in the bullpen. Jennings has done some nice things in the past while pitching for the Rockies but his ability to stay healthy is a major question mark. If he is able to pitch, I suspect we'll see quite a bit of Jennings in the big leagues in '09.
CL. Frankie Francisco
Francisco was the Rangers' best reliever last season and it's interesting to see him listed ahead of last year's closer C.J. Wilson. I don't trust Francisco all that much, but he is tough to hit against and he strikes a lot of people out. While Wilson did convert 24 of 28 save chances last season, he also showed me that he's not a Major League closer. He allows to many hits and too many walks to be handling the 9th inning. If a 6.02 ERA doesn't tell the story I don't know what does. The fact that his ERA was 2 runs lower (4.50 compared to 6.55 vs. right handers) tells us something - he's a setup man.
Eddie Guardado joins those two and he's probably the best fallback option to close if Francisco struggles. Nobody else in the pen gets me very excited to be honest. Josh Rupe, Luis Mendoza, Warner Madrigal and Derrick Turnbow are talented pitchers but I don't trust any of them.
As far as pitching prospects go, that's where the Rangers really have some horses. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are both potential #1 starters. Holland is a lefty that can reach the upper 90's with his fastball, Feliz is a righty than can do the same. I think it's a safe bet that we'll see both in a Rangers uniform sometime in '09 and possibly for good come '10. Martin Perez, Michael Main and Blake Beavan should be watched as well.
OVERVIEW
The Rangers lack of front-end starting pitchers and the lack of many proven commodities in the bullpen are the factors holding this team back. Their everyday lineup is good enough to be a contender but they need kids like Feliz and Holland to emerge, plus they need someone to establish themselves as a closer.
Team President Nolan Ryan seems to have things headed in the right direction. Right now they just have to hope that the pitching prospects are as good as advertised. If so, the Rangers could contend in the West in 2010.
KW
Now, back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings...
( #'s 25-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
24. Texas Rangers
As usual, the Rangers have a pretty good looking everyday lineup and a questionable pitching staff. They've got some kids coming along here in the next year or two that could balance out the pitching end of the spectrum, but that's not likely going to help much in 2009.
As I said with the Orioles, however, this is an organization that appears to be in the beginning stages of righting the ship. They have some incredible, high-end offensive talent, a farm system that is improving and some bad pitching contracts that are getting closer to their expiration dates.
2009 could be a "stepping stone" year for this franchise and I'm very curious to see how some of their "situations" shake out.
LINEUP
According to the team's official website, here are the Rangers' projected starters:
C. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B. Chris Davis
2B. Ian Kinsler
3B. Michael Young
SS. Elvis Andrus
LF. David Murphy
CF. Josh Hamilton
RF. Nelson Cruz
DH. Hank Blalock
That is a lineup with a lot of offensive ability. If everyone's healthy this could be one of the five highest scoring teams in baseball, especially when you consider where they play their home games.
Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter behind the dish but with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez also in the mix you just never know. I think Salty has the highest overall upside of the three players but that's just me. Tegarden is better defender than Salty, but I like Salty's offense better. Ramirez may be a better pure hitter than Salty, but I like Salty's defense better. In short, Saltalamacchia is the best all-around catcher they have. I also think he's going to have a breakout season if they just stick with him from Opening Day through the end of the season. Teagarden and Ramirez would both make for good trade bait.
Davis is a masher at 1B and looks like a guy who will hit a lot of home runs for a long, long time. I'm a fan. Kinsler may be the game's best all-around 2B. He does it all and gives this team a distinct edge over others because of the offense they get from a position that doesn't always deliver production. Young accepting the move over to 3B was huge because it makes them better defensively. He's not a bad SS, it's just that Andrus is better at SS than Young and Young is more gifted defensively than Blalock or Davis. Plus, Young's a good bat. Andrus is the question mark in the infield but I think he'll be fine if they stick with him. His glove is a plus, he's got good speed and is a stolen base threat, plus I think he can develop some pop. Andrus looks like a future All-Star to me.
Hamilton is the best all-around player on the team and one of the 5-10 best all-around players in the game. I expect Hamilton to be an MVP candidate year-in and year-out moving forward, barring injury of course. He's a flat out stud. Murphy is a nice player in LF but I don't see a lot of upside there. He does a lot of things well, though, and is a very useful player. Cruz has all kinds of offensive potential but this is a make-or-break season for him. After mashing in Triple-A last year he carried that production to the Major League level at the end of the season. If he hits, he plays. If not, see ya later Nelson.
Marlon Byrd gives the Rangers and excellent 4th OF option. He can play all over the outfield, he's got a little pop and he runs well. The sleeper in the mix is Andruw Jones, invited to camp on a minor league deal. If he hits at all during Spring Training the Rangers will have to make room for him somehow. Jones picked the right spot to rejuvenate his offensive career - no place is more hitter friendly these days than Arlington. If Andruw has an impressive spring, I'd bet on him taking over in CF with Hamilton sliding over to RF and Murphy/Cruz forming a LF platoon. I wouldn't bet the house on Jones, though. His problems have all been in his head and that's something that's tough to break out of.
Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Arias, German Duran and Brandon Boggs are around as well. The one that is most interesting is Arias, who could wind up at SS if Andrus struggles.
Most of the Rangers' best offensive prospects were covered above and none of the rest figure to have any impact in the Majors this season. 1B Justin Smoak is a big-time hitter but he was just drafted in '08. OF Julio Borbon is a speed demon but I don't see how he fits in any way this season. OF Engel Beltre is 2-3 years off but he's a 5-tool talent who could be a star eventually.
PITCHERS
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy
This is where things start to turn the wrong way.
I think Millwood would be a decent 4th or 5th starter on a National League team but he's not lasting as deep into games as he used to and doesn't miss enough bats either. Padilla isn't awful but he's also more of a 4th/5th starter on a decent team because he's too erratic. He also happens to be vastly overpaid. To me, Feldman is just not a Major League starting pitcher. His strikeout to walk ratio stunk last season, he gives up too many hits and would be better off working out of the bullpen. Harrison has some ability and is probably capable of being a decent 4th/5th starter this season but he doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter. McCarthy intrigues me. He only made 5 starts for the Rangers last season but if he's healthy he could be another decent 3-4-5 starter. Not a high-end guy, though.
Jason Jennings (if healthy), Dustin Nippert and Kason Gabbard could also factor into the mix. I've always liked Nippert as a potential 3-4-5 starter and I think the team would be better off with him in the rotation and Feldman in the bullpen. Jennings has done some nice things in the past while pitching for the Rockies but his ability to stay healthy is a major question mark. If he is able to pitch, I suspect we'll see quite a bit of Jennings in the big leagues in '09.
CL. Frankie Francisco
Francisco was the Rangers' best reliever last season and it's interesting to see him listed ahead of last year's closer C.J. Wilson. I don't trust Francisco all that much, but he is tough to hit against and he strikes a lot of people out. While Wilson did convert 24 of 28 save chances last season, he also showed me that he's not a Major League closer. He allows to many hits and too many walks to be handling the 9th inning. If a 6.02 ERA doesn't tell the story I don't know what does. The fact that his ERA was 2 runs lower (4.50 compared to 6.55 vs. right handers) tells us something - he's a setup man.
Eddie Guardado joins those two and he's probably the best fallback option to close if Francisco struggles. Nobody else in the pen gets me very excited to be honest. Josh Rupe, Luis Mendoza, Warner Madrigal and Derrick Turnbow are talented pitchers but I don't trust any of them.
As far as pitching prospects go, that's where the Rangers really have some horses. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are both potential #1 starters. Holland is a lefty that can reach the upper 90's with his fastball, Feliz is a righty than can do the same. I think it's a safe bet that we'll see both in a Rangers uniform sometime in '09 and possibly for good come '10. Martin Perez, Michael Main and Blake Beavan should be watched as well.
OVERVIEW
The Rangers lack of front-end starting pitchers and the lack of many proven commodities in the bullpen are the factors holding this team back. Their everyday lineup is good enough to be a contender but they need kids like Feliz and Holland to emerge, plus they need someone to establish themselves as a closer.
Team President Nolan Ryan seems to have things headed in the right direction. Right now they just have to hope that the pitching prospects are as good as advertised. If so, the Rangers could contend in the West in 2010.
KW
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Audio Blog - Ranting on media "roid rage"
Here's a short segment from my radio show (Sports Open Line) on KMOX in St. Louis from this week.
This is a rant about baseball writers on their soap boxes about how "guys like A-Rod" are ruining baseball history.
My take?
Well, let's just say my opinion is a little different than that of the fellas riding on White Horses...
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3458034
I'll be in Jupiter, FL covering Cardinals Spring Training from M-F of next week and will be chiming in w/ more audio then as well...
KW
This is a rant about baseball writers on their soap boxes about how "guys like A-Rod" are ruining baseball history.
My take?
Well, let's just say my opinion is a little different than that of the fellas riding on White Horses...
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3458034
I'll be in Jupiter, FL covering Cardinals Spring Training from M-F of next week and will be chiming in w/ more audio then as well...
KW
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