2009 Power Rankings #23

Before I get started, just wanted to let you know that all my posts this week are originating from Cardinals Spring Training camp in Jupiter, FL. I'm down here covering the Cards for my real job at KMOX and loving every minute of it...

Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.

( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

23. Cincinnati Reds

You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.

Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.

They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.

LINEUP

According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce

Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.

The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.

As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.

PITCHING

According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:

1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings

Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.

The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.

CL. Francisco Cordero

In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.

David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.

As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.

OVERVIEW

The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.

KW