2009 Power Rankings #25

Back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings - #'s 26-30 can be found in the Blog Archive, FYI...

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.


25. Baltimore Orioles

This is a team in transition that seems to finally be turning the corner a bit after spending too many years chasing it's own tail.

The pitching isn't there at the moment but I like the direction they went in the outfield - young and athletic - and I think a couple of their pitching prospects are going to be ready to contribute soon.

Peter Angelos has spent good money after bad for a lot of years now, trying in vain to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. Apparently the team is starting to understand that's not the way to go. The O's aren't some "feel sorry for me" small market club, they have the ability to generate cash and they have a rabid fan base, but for years they've just gone about things the wrong way. Hiring Andy MacPhail was the best thing this team has done for a long time.

I don't see the O's being this far down in the Power Rankings in a year or two, that's for sure.

LINEUP

According to the Orioles' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters
1B. Aubrey Huff
2B. Brian Roberts
3B. Melvin Mora
SS. Cesar Izturis
LF. Felix Pie
CF. Adam Jones
RF. Nick Markakis
DH. Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton

First of all, it would be fantastic for this team if Matt Wieters wins a spot on the Major League roster this season. He is an amazing talent and has a chance to be an All-Star caliber catcher for many years to come. I love Wieters' game and sincerely hope Zaun serves as a mentor/backup to him rather than as the primary starter. The 6'5" switch-hitter with power from both sides has an offensive game not seen in many catchers.

Aside from the 2007 season, Aubrey Huff has been an excellent Major League hitter. He averages 25 HR and 87 RBI per season over the last 7 years and he'll take a walk as well. Roberts is the straw that stirs the drink for the O's - he's an excellent leadoff man/spark plug. The team does have a tough decision to make on him going forward though. Do you give him big bucks in his 30's to stick around as a veteran to lead the kids or do you move him for more kids? I'd lean toward keeping him. Melvin Mora isn't terrible but he is very streaky, which would make him expendable in my book. Izturis is all glove, no bat. The O's knew that and only signed him to help out the pitching staff.

Keep in mind that the team has also signed Ty Wigginton. He can play 1B-2B-3B-LF-DH for the O's, so I expect him to get a lot of at-bats as an "everyday utility man." He's no stud but I think he's a bigger asset than Kevin Millar was last year.

In the outfield, the O's plan is for youth to be served. I think the Cubs gave up way too early on Pie and if the O's are patient they will be rewarded for it. Pie has great speed and a little pop, plus he's an outstanding defender. Jones is player I expect to take a step forward in '09. His offensive numbers were less than stellar last season but I think he'll double his home run total. Markakis is an outstanding young player who should be an All-Star on a pretty regular basis going forward. He does it all and he does it all well. In fact, I think Markakis is a franchise player.

Luke Scott will probably be the DH against right handers, something he should be good at, with Wigginton probably sliding in there against lefties. Scott has power but he's streaky and didn't hit lefties at all last season. Luis Montanez has an intriguing bat as a bit of a late bloomer so we'll see if he factors into the mix during Spring Training.

I liked the addition of Ryan Freel as well. He can play the infield and the outfield, plus he brings both speed and energy to the lineup whenever he's in there. Outstanding bench player.

Aside from Wieters, only one other Orioles' prospect should be knocking on the big league door this season. OF Nolan Reimold appears to have the physical tools to be a productive hitter but the 6'4" right handed hitter was left sitting at Double-A all last season despite being 24 and having a solid season. A strong start at Triple-A combined with a slow start in the big leagues for Pie could earn Reimold an opportunity to move up.

PITCHING

Once again referring to the Orioles' official website, here's how the rotation is shaping up:

1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Mark Hendrickson
3. Koji Uehara
4. Rich Hill
5. Chris Waters

Ugh. Only Guthrie is a proven big league starter in that group. I like him a lot and think he's got a long career ahead of him as a good Major League starter but it doesn't look like he's going to get much help to start '09.

Hendrickson doesn't belong anywhere near a big league mound, at least not as a starter. Why anyone would give him a shot at a rotation spot is beyond me - he's had one decent season in the Majors (2006) and 5 bad ones. I have no clue what Uehara will be nor does anyone else. He may be a useful big league starter and he may be a bust. I'd bet he's a decent 4th/5th starter. Hill is very talented and I like the idea of grabbing him off the Cubs' scrap heap. He's a strikeout guy who can be a 12-15 game winner if he just throws more strikes. Waters is just "filler" to me - a 28 year-old with just 64 2/3 mediocre Major League innings under his belt.

Matt Albers, Danys Baez and Radhames Liz could also be a part of the mix early in the season. Albers was decent as a reliever last year and has a good arm - I'd choose him over Hendrickson or Waters. Baez has a good arm as well and the team owes him a fair amount of money, so maybe they'll find a way to make it for him in the rotation. Liz has a fantastic arm, reaching the upper-90's, but his control is bad and his secondary pitches aren't any better. Liz looks like a reliever to me. Troy Patton would be in the mix but he's coming off a shoulder injury and that scares me.

Long term, however, the picture is much brighter. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all potential frontline starters at the Major League level and they're coming on fast. Tillman and Matusz could both be factors in '09, in fact I think they're better right now than at least 2/5 of the projected rotation. Arrieta isn't far off those two either.

CL. George Sherrill

Let me say this right up front - George Sherrill is not a Major League closer. He's a quality reliever, don't get me wrong, but he shouldn't be closing for a big league club. Sure, he had 31 saves last season but there's a reason he was getting his first chance to close at the age of 31. Sooner or later he'll be replaced.

If he's healthy, Chris Ray would be the logical choice to move back into the role he once had. Ray had Tommy John surgery and missed all of the '08 season but guys usually come back from TJ surgeru pretty well and he's just got better closer's stuff than Sherrill.

Eventually the job may belong to 6'9" Kam Mickolio, who had a nice season in the minors last year, but that doesn't seem likely for the start of 2009.

OVERVIEW

I haven't said these words in a long, long time but I think the O's are finally on the right track.

Markakis and Wieters are the offensive cornerstones of this franchise and guys like Guthrie, Tillman and Matusz should be the same in the rotation before much longer.

If the O's really want to go all the way they'll trade Mora and/or Roberts before the end of the '09 season and complete their re-tooling process. Even Huff could be spared if he brings the right player(s) in return.

By 2010 these guys could be a factor again, but not in '09.

KW