2009 Power Rankings #21

( #'s 22-30 can be found in the archive)

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.


21. Houston Astros

If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.

Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."

All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.

LINEUP

According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:

C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence

My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.

Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.

Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."

David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.

There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.

PITCHING

According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:

1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler

Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.

The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.

The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.

CL. Jose Valverde

Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.

OVERVIEW

The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.

The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.

KW