I want to make one thing perfectly clear about this post - I am not ripping Jason Varitek. I have the utmost respect for him as a player and as a leader, plus as a guy who at one time donned the "tools of ignorance" I've got a soft spot for catchers.
In fact, back when I was warming the pine for the Miami Hurricanes we played Georgia Tech in a weekend series in Atlanta and the two catchers were Jason Varitek and Charles Johnson.
Needless to say, there were a lot of scouts there that day...
Anyway, back to Varitek.
Like a lot of players, Tek is having a difficult time coming to grips with his changing place in Major League Baseball. I know he feels like his contributions merit a certain level of respect (a.k.a salary) but he turns 37 in April, his offensive numbers have been in a deep decline the past three seasons and there just isn't the demand for his services there would have been two years ago.
Just sign with the Sawx and get it over with.
Tek has already made a lifetime's worth of money and it's unlikely he'll ever be without a good paying job given that he could probably name his own career after he retires (future manager, broadcaster, etc.).
His best - and perhaps only - option is to sign with the Red Sox. Take what they are offering and be done with it. There is no reason to push this any further.
They need him, he needs them.
Seems pretty simple, doesn't it?
KW
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Thinking Out Loud - Jan 28, 2009
Garland signs w/ D'Backs
Very nice signing by Arizona and at a very fair price. They get a guy who is a workhorse and now they have three of those 200-inning guys in their 5-man rotation (Webb & Haren being the other two), plus Davis and Scherzer.
Not bad.
I really like Garland in the NL and think his ERA drops 0.50-0.75 just by switching leagues. No DH and lots of games in pitcher's parks (LA, SD, SF).
He's not a star but he'll be an effective NL starter.
Cubs-Mariners trade
Aaron Heilman goes to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.
Heilman wants to start and the Cubs will give him a chance, which is odd because I'm not sure he's a better candidate to start than Sean Marshall. Maybe he winds up back in the bullpen, which wouldn't be terrible except for the fact that he wasn't entirely happy in that role in NY.
Why give up on Cedeno? Good bat, can play all over the infield and he's cheap. Decent pickup for the M's, should be a helpful bat off the bench.
Olson was a nice pickup for Seattle as well. Now if they can just find a way to unload Batista, Washburn and/or Silva that would be gravy. Good luck with that fellas....
Kind of a blah deal that doesn't do much for me either direction to be honest.
Tigers sign Lyons
What do teams see in Lyons that I'm missing?
This guy has never proven he can be a good closer over a full season and yet teams keep trying him in that role. He's a setup man, plain & simple.
If Fernando Rodney comes out throwing strikes he's a better option than Lyons.
If Joel Zumaya is 100% healthy he's a better option too.
Leyland needs to go with the guy who's pitching the best and not stick with the older guy (Lyons) like he did w/ Todd Jones....
KW
Very nice signing by Arizona and at a very fair price. They get a guy who is a workhorse and now they have three of those 200-inning guys in their 5-man rotation (Webb & Haren being the other two), plus Davis and Scherzer.
Not bad.
I really like Garland in the NL and think his ERA drops 0.50-0.75 just by switching leagues. No DH and lots of games in pitcher's parks (LA, SD, SF).
He's not a star but he'll be an effective NL starter.
Cubs-Mariners trade
Aaron Heilman goes to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.
Heilman wants to start and the Cubs will give him a chance, which is odd because I'm not sure he's a better candidate to start than Sean Marshall. Maybe he winds up back in the bullpen, which wouldn't be terrible except for the fact that he wasn't entirely happy in that role in NY.
Why give up on Cedeno? Good bat, can play all over the infield and he's cheap. Decent pickup for the M's, should be a helpful bat off the bench.
Olson was a nice pickup for Seattle as well. Now if they can just find a way to unload Batista, Washburn and/or Silva that would be gravy. Good luck with that fellas....
Kind of a blah deal that doesn't do much for me either direction to be honest.
Tigers sign Lyons
What do teams see in Lyons that I'm missing?
This guy has never proven he can be a good closer over a full season and yet teams keep trying him in that role. He's a setup man, plain & simple.
If Fernando Rodney comes out throwing strikes he's a better option than Lyons.
If Joel Zumaya is 100% healthy he's a better option too.
Leyland needs to go with the guy who's pitching the best and not stick with the older guy (Lyons) like he did w/ Todd Jones....
KW
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
TBG Top Prospects: 91-100
My first post on this blog was my Top 100 Prospects list and when I posted that I promised a little more detail for each of the players, so today I'm beginning the process of putting the rankings out there along with comments on each player.
As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
Comments and questions are welcome.
Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.
Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html
And away we go...
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)
Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.
99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)
I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.
98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)
Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.
97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)
Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.
96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)
Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?
95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)
Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.
94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)
Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.
93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)
Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.
92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)
Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.
91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)
Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.
KW
As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
Comments and questions are welcome.
Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.
Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html
And away we go...
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)
Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.
99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)
I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.
98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)
Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.
97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)
Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.
96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)
Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?
95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)
Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.
94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)
Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.
93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)
Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.
92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)
Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.
91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)
Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.
KW
Monday, January 26, 2009
Thinking Out Loud - Jan 26, 2009
Teams missing the boat on Pudge Rodriguez
With the handful of horse-blank catchers out there who have "starting" jobs, Pudge can't find a gig at a discount price? I don't get it.
Even what he did last year (.276, 7 HR, 10 SB in 398 AB) is WAAAAY better than what most catchers provide, plus he's still one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Not what he used to be, but still very good.
Here's a guy who has 8 million Gold Gloves, a better bat than most catchers even if he is in decline and he's ticked off that nobody will give him a shot...
Give me an angry, motivated Pudge Rodriguez any day.
Paging the Florida Marlins...
Paging the Houston Astros...
Richie Sexson worth a shot?
Depending on what kind of contract terms he's looking for, I'd take a shot on Richie Sexson.
I've had some people tell me they think he lost his power after baseball got more serious about steroid testing but I'm not buying that. If that were the case he might have lost some power but his ability to make contact wouldn't have been affected. At 6'8" 240 pounds he could still generate plenty of power without juicing.
Something's up with his swing, his health or his head.
If it's his health - like a bad back or something - then it's going to be tough for him to turn things around, but players can rebound from the other things.
My prescription - tell him to forget about power for the time being, get back to centering up the ball and making consistent contact and then the home runs will come.
When you're as big as Sexson is, there's no reason to fixate on the long ball. They'll come if you get the barrell of the bat to the ball.
Same goes for Andruw Jones, by the way.
Curious about some OF's '09 salaries
Man, there are some really good free agent OF's out there...
Wonder what these guys are gonna make in '09 and I wonder if some teams who weren't planning on adding a bat will change their minds as the prices come down:
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Garret Anderson
Dunn's the guy I'd jump on even if I didn't need a hitter. He's not the best hitter in the world but his combination of power and patience are underrated. He's on base more than most .300 hitters so I'll live with the strikeouts when they come with home runs attached.
Best remaining FA SP's
1. Ben Sheets (definitely worth the risk of a 1-2 year deal)
2. Oliver Perez (if this guy ever learns consistency he'll be nasty)
3. Jon Garland (would be a steal for an NL team)
4. Randy Wolf (I'd take him if I had an open rotation spot)
5. Braden Looper (lots of life left in that arm after spending most of his career in the pen)
6. Odalis Perez (lazy but good enough to fill in the 5th spot in a rotation)
7. Tom Glavine (not sure he's gonna get that many guys out in '09)
8. Andy Pettitte (same as Glavine, especially if back in the AL East)
9. Kris Benson (I'd give him an incentive laden deal to prove he's healthy)
10. Mark Mulder (same as Benson)
How could you leave out Pedro?
Well, I did that on purpose to give him his own section...
SOMEBODY NEEDS TO MAKE PEDRO THEIR CLOSER!!!
Look, he's younger than Trevor Hoffman and he has more pitches too, so why not?
He's never going to be able to stay healthy as a starter (just look at 2006-2008) but he has shown a few things over those three seasons:
1) He still misses a lot of bats (256 K's in 269 2/3 IP)
2) He still has control
3) He can still reach back for a little extra on the fastball, but only on occasion
This guy could close for 4-5 years if he's willing and someone gives him a chance. This guy has four quality pitches, he's a strike thrower AND he has no fear.
Put it all together and it spells "C-L-O-S-E-R"
KW
With the handful of horse-blank catchers out there who have "starting" jobs, Pudge can't find a gig at a discount price? I don't get it.
Even what he did last year (.276, 7 HR, 10 SB in 398 AB) is WAAAAY better than what most catchers provide, plus he's still one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Not what he used to be, but still very good.
Here's a guy who has 8 million Gold Gloves, a better bat than most catchers even if he is in decline and he's ticked off that nobody will give him a shot...
Give me an angry, motivated Pudge Rodriguez any day.
Paging the Florida Marlins...
Paging the Houston Astros...
Richie Sexson worth a shot?
Depending on what kind of contract terms he's looking for, I'd take a shot on Richie Sexson.
I've had some people tell me they think he lost his power after baseball got more serious about steroid testing but I'm not buying that. If that were the case he might have lost some power but his ability to make contact wouldn't have been affected. At 6'8" 240 pounds he could still generate plenty of power without juicing.
Something's up with his swing, his health or his head.
If it's his health - like a bad back or something - then it's going to be tough for him to turn things around, but players can rebound from the other things.
My prescription - tell him to forget about power for the time being, get back to centering up the ball and making consistent contact and then the home runs will come.
When you're as big as Sexson is, there's no reason to fixate on the long ball. They'll come if you get the barrell of the bat to the ball.
Same goes for Andruw Jones, by the way.
Curious about some OF's '09 salaries
Man, there are some really good free agent OF's out there...
Wonder what these guys are gonna make in '09 and I wonder if some teams who weren't planning on adding a bat will change their minds as the prices come down:
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Garret Anderson
Dunn's the guy I'd jump on even if I didn't need a hitter. He's not the best hitter in the world but his combination of power and patience are underrated. He's on base more than most .300 hitters so I'll live with the strikeouts when they come with home runs attached.
Best remaining FA SP's
1. Ben Sheets (definitely worth the risk of a 1-2 year deal)
2. Oliver Perez (if this guy ever learns consistency he'll be nasty)
3. Jon Garland (would be a steal for an NL team)
4. Randy Wolf (I'd take him if I had an open rotation spot)
5. Braden Looper (lots of life left in that arm after spending most of his career in the pen)
6. Odalis Perez (lazy but good enough to fill in the 5th spot in a rotation)
7. Tom Glavine (not sure he's gonna get that many guys out in '09)
8. Andy Pettitte (same as Glavine, especially if back in the AL East)
9. Kris Benson (I'd give him an incentive laden deal to prove he's healthy)
10. Mark Mulder (same as Benson)
How could you leave out Pedro?
Well, I did that on purpose to give him his own section...
SOMEBODY NEEDS TO MAKE PEDRO THEIR CLOSER!!!
Look, he's younger than Trevor Hoffman and he has more pitches too, so why not?
He's never going to be able to stay healthy as a starter (just look at 2006-2008) but he has shown a few things over those three seasons:
1) He still misses a lot of bats (256 K's in 269 2/3 IP)
2) He still has control
3) He can still reach back for a little extra on the fastball, but only on occasion
This guy could close for 4-5 years if he's willing and someone gives him a chance. This guy has four quality pitches, he's a strike thrower AND he has no fear.
Put it all together and it spells "C-L-O-S-E-R"
KW
Friday, January 23, 2009
Early 2009 Power Rankings #27
Time for yet another installment of TBG's early 2009 Power Rankings. You can find #'s 28, 29 and 30 below...
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
27. Washington Nationals
These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.
I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.
Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.
In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.
LINEUP
According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes
There is some potential there...
Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.
Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.
Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...
Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.
Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.
Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.
Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.
As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester
Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.
Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.
Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.
The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.
Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.
CL. Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.
Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.
OVERVIEW
The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.
The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).
This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
27. Washington Nationals
These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.
I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.
Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.
In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.
LINEUP
According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes
There is some potential there...
Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.
Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.
Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...
Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.
Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.
Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.
Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.
As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester
Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.
Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.
Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.
The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.
Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.
CL. Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.
Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.
OVERVIEW
The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.
The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).
This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.
KW
Thursday, January 22, 2009
TGB Top 100 Prospects - commentary
Just a word of advice...
Criticism means so little when it is done anonymously...
Got this comment today on my Top 100 Prospects list:
"Anonymous said...
bahaha this list is a joke.Lars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
January 22, 2009 4:27 PM "
My response:
"Wheels said...
Boy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people."Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.Check it out for yourself.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html
Rating prospects is not a science my man.By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
January 22, 2009 5:09 PM "
Not picking on Baseball America - they are absolutely THE BEST when it comes to prospect rankings and draft information. THE BEST, period, without peer.
Just using BA to illustrate that this is not an exact science. Ripping a list - any list- at this point is silly. Question me all you want, but use your head (AND YOUR NAME) when doing so.
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects list here, FYI:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html?showComment=1232665740000#c3040229003897727336
Criticism means so little when it is done anonymously...
Got this comment today on my Top 100 Prospects list:
"Anonymous said...
bahaha this list is a joke.Lars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
January 22, 2009 4:27 PM "
My response:
"Wheels said...
Boy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people."Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.Check it out for yourself.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html
Rating prospects is not a science my man.By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
January 22, 2009 5:09 PM "
Not picking on Baseball America - they are absolutely THE BEST when it comes to prospect rankings and draft information. THE BEST, period, without peer.
Just using BA to illustrate that this is not an exact science. Ripping a list - any list- at this point is silly. Question me all you want, but use your head (AND YOUR NAME) when doing so.
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects list here, FYI:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html?showComment=1232665740000#c3040229003897727336
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
This is why the Royals are the Royals...
The Royals avoided arbitration with C John Buck, agreeing to a 1-year $2.9 million contract.
What's so terrible about that?
First of all, I just want to say this isn't a pot-shot at John Buck. I think $2.9 million is a fair salary for him, if you're going to play him full-time over the course of the season.
This is, however, a pot-shot at the Royals organization.
Why pay Buck $2.9 million and Olivo $2.7 million to be the SAME PLAYER.
2008:
Buck - .669 OPS, 370 AB
Olivo - .720 OPS, 306 AB
3-Year Average:
Buck - .708 OPS, 368 AB
Olivo - .701 OPS, 396 AB
Okay, so you're a team that has limited financial resources and you're going to pay two guys to produce the exact same numbers and have them split time?
Why not just pick one and let him play 130 games while having a cheap back up to spell the regular every so often?
Both Buck and Olivo are solid defensive catchers so you're not going to hurt yourself all that much no matter who you go with. Pick one and be done with it.
They'd be better off saving the money from one of them to sign draft picks if they're not able to put it toward an improvement elsewhere.
While I'm at it, here are some other players the Royals are wasting money on (guys who can certainly play but who aren't worth the money to this team):
Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million):
$4+ million a year for an inconsistent setup man?
Ron Mahay ($4 million):
Good player but why is he worth that money on a last place team?
Ross Gload ($1.9 million):
Nice bench player but the Royals use him too much and pay too much for what he should be.
Horacio Ramirez ($1.8 million):
Did they see this guy pitch last year? Was he worth signing at all?
Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million):
How many utility players do the Royals need, exactly?
That doesn't even count Mike Jacobs, who will make between $2.75 million (team arbitration number) and $3.8 million (his arbitration number) and occupy a spot that could go to Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy for a lot less money. Jacobs is solid but, again, not worth that kind of money to this particular team.
They could have another premium player or two if they weren't so enthralled with paying so much to have spare parts around. What's wrong with using guys making the league minimum as your backups when you're a low budget, last place club?
You don't get better by adding bench players, you get better by adding starting quality players.
KW
What's so terrible about that?
First of all, I just want to say this isn't a pot-shot at John Buck. I think $2.9 million is a fair salary for him, if you're going to play him full-time over the course of the season.
This is, however, a pot-shot at the Royals organization.
Why pay Buck $2.9 million and Olivo $2.7 million to be the SAME PLAYER.
2008:
Buck - .669 OPS, 370 AB
Olivo - .720 OPS, 306 AB
3-Year Average:
Buck - .708 OPS, 368 AB
Olivo - .701 OPS, 396 AB
Okay, so you're a team that has limited financial resources and you're going to pay two guys to produce the exact same numbers and have them split time?
Why not just pick one and let him play 130 games while having a cheap back up to spell the regular every so often?
Both Buck and Olivo are solid defensive catchers so you're not going to hurt yourself all that much no matter who you go with. Pick one and be done with it.
They'd be better off saving the money from one of them to sign draft picks if they're not able to put it toward an improvement elsewhere.
While I'm at it, here are some other players the Royals are wasting money on (guys who can certainly play but who aren't worth the money to this team):
Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million):
$4+ million a year for an inconsistent setup man?
Ron Mahay ($4 million):
Good player but why is he worth that money on a last place team?
Ross Gload ($1.9 million):
Nice bench player but the Royals use him too much and pay too much for what he should be.
Horacio Ramirez ($1.8 million):
Did they see this guy pitch last year? Was he worth signing at all?
Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million):
How many utility players do the Royals need, exactly?
That doesn't even count Mike Jacobs, who will make between $2.75 million (team arbitration number) and $3.8 million (his arbitration number) and occupy a spot that could go to Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy for a lot less money. Jacobs is solid but, again, not worth that kind of money to this particular team.
They could have another premium player or two if they weren't so enthralled with paying so much to have spare parts around. What's wrong with using guys making the league minimum as your backups when you're a low budget, last place club?
You don't get better by adding bench players, you get better by adding starting quality players.
KW
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Early 2009 Power Rankings #28
Time for another installment of The Baseball Gods' early Power Rankings. You can find #29 (Seattle) and #30 (San Diego) lower on the page.
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
And away we go...
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm always pretty hard on the Pirates because they've been so horribly mismanaged over the last 10-12 season but I'm willing to give GM Neal Huntington some time to turn things around before I start blasting his decisions.
That said, there really isn't a lot to like about the Buccos in 2009.
Too much payroll wasted on players who aren't productive enough and too little emphasis on the big picture. Some of their higher-end salary players are good big leaguers but they're just not going to be around when the Pirates can compete again. So why keep them?
Again, I'll give Huntington and his staff the benefit of the doubt because they're still relatively new to all this but they have a chance to show some guts this season by getting rid of their big contracts, adding more prospects, and building long-term.
LINEUP
According to the Pirates' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ryan Doumit
1B. Adam LaRoche
2B. Freddy Sanchez
3B. Andy LaRoche
SS. Jack Wilson
LF. Brandon Moss
CF. Nate McLouth
RF. Steve Pearce
Okay, here's the problem with the Pirates - they have $20 million tied up in Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez in '09, which will be 40-45% of their payroll if my math is correct. Those three guys combined for a .727 OPS last season w/ a .271 average, 35 HR and 159 RBI in 1,366 AB.
At those rates in a 550 at-bat season a player would hit .271 with 14 HR, 64 RBI and that same .727 OPS - all that for an average of nearly $7 million a year.
And you wonder why the Pirates finish at the bottom each year. Their three highest paid players combined average out to a mediocre middle infielder offensively. I'd trade all three of them for a big bag of nothing just to save the money.
Seriously.
They're all solid players but not in this situation for the salaries they make. They're role players, not core players.
Doumit is a really good hitting catcher and a valuable asset, so I like him. Andy LaRoche has lots of power potential and he's cheap, so I'd have no problem giving him 500 AB's to see what he can do until Pedro Alvarez is ready. I'm intrigued by Moss as well and think he could be a decent contributor as a 6th/7th hitter in the lineup, plus he's cheap. Pearce has power and deserves a chance to get some regular at-bats.
McLouth is the interesting guy in the bunch. He's getting closer to where he's gonna get some big bucks based on what he did in '08 but he's also the team's best all-around player entering '09. Hard to say they should trade him sometime this season but that depends on what he brings in return I suppose. For now it's probably wise to see if he can duplicate what he did last season.
Neil Walker is a guy I'd like to see get an opportunity as well, perhaps by trading off Adam LaRoche and putting the young switch-hitter there.
With Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jose Tabata waiting in the wings the Buccos could get a nice boost in talent here soon. I'd be planning on building around those guys, Doumit and McLouth with everyone else on the trade block.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Pirates' official website for the rotation and closer...
1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Ross Ohelndorf
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Zach Duke
There is a chance, hard as it may be to believe, that this rotation will be better than it was in '08. I think Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke are all better than their '08 numbers indicate. Snell is very talented but needs to find consistency if he's going to live up to his contract.
I like Maholm, who seems to get better each season. He's not a #1 starter - nobody on this team is - but he's solid. Gorzelanny and Duke were awful last season but there is hope - Gorzelanny went 14-10 w/ a 3.89 ERA in '07 and Duke was 10-15 w/ a 4.48 ERA in 200+ innings in '06. If they combine for a 4.50 ERA or lower this season and give the team 180-200 innings each then they'll be solid 4th/5th starters.
The strange one here is Ohlendorf. Why is he listed as the #3 starter? Weird. Guy posts a 6.00+ ERA as a starter AND as a reliever last season and the Pirates' website projects him as the 3rd starter? M'kay. Not buying that.
Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait are filler guys, nothing more, and I'm not sure what prospect Brad Lincoln is at this point.
CL. Matt Capps
He's solid and if healthy will do a fine job of closing games. The Pirates actually have some intriguing guys in the bullpen - John Grabow, Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Sean Burnett, etc. - but if the lineup doesn't produce and the rotation isn't way better than it was last season then none of it will matter.
OVERVIEW
Neal Huntington has his work cut out for him and with the right moves he just might be able to set this team up to be more competitive in 2010. The money they're spending on the infielders (not counting Andy LaRoche) would be better served if it were consolidated into one impact player. Someone like, oh I don't know, Jason Bay.
There are some talented hitters on the way so if they play their cards right, and those young players live up to expectations, then the Pirates just might be able to start thinking about moving up in the standings in a year.
Just not this year.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
And away we go...
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm always pretty hard on the Pirates because they've been so horribly mismanaged over the last 10-12 season but I'm willing to give GM Neal Huntington some time to turn things around before I start blasting his decisions.
That said, there really isn't a lot to like about the Buccos in 2009.
Too much payroll wasted on players who aren't productive enough and too little emphasis on the big picture. Some of their higher-end salary players are good big leaguers but they're just not going to be around when the Pirates can compete again. So why keep them?
Again, I'll give Huntington and his staff the benefit of the doubt because they're still relatively new to all this but they have a chance to show some guts this season by getting rid of their big contracts, adding more prospects, and building long-term.
LINEUP
According to the Pirates' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ryan Doumit
1B. Adam LaRoche
2B. Freddy Sanchez
3B. Andy LaRoche
SS. Jack Wilson
LF. Brandon Moss
CF. Nate McLouth
RF. Steve Pearce
Okay, here's the problem with the Pirates - they have $20 million tied up in Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez in '09, which will be 40-45% of their payroll if my math is correct. Those three guys combined for a .727 OPS last season w/ a .271 average, 35 HR and 159 RBI in 1,366 AB.
At those rates in a 550 at-bat season a player would hit .271 with 14 HR, 64 RBI and that same .727 OPS - all that for an average of nearly $7 million a year.
And you wonder why the Pirates finish at the bottom each year. Their three highest paid players combined average out to a mediocre middle infielder offensively. I'd trade all three of them for a big bag of nothing just to save the money.
Seriously.
They're all solid players but not in this situation for the salaries they make. They're role players, not core players.
Doumit is a really good hitting catcher and a valuable asset, so I like him. Andy LaRoche has lots of power potential and he's cheap, so I'd have no problem giving him 500 AB's to see what he can do until Pedro Alvarez is ready. I'm intrigued by Moss as well and think he could be a decent contributor as a 6th/7th hitter in the lineup, plus he's cheap. Pearce has power and deserves a chance to get some regular at-bats.
McLouth is the interesting guy in the bunch. He's getting closer to where he's gonna get some big bucks based on what he did in '08 but he's also the team's best all-around player entering '09. Hard to say they should trade him sometime this season but that depends on what he brings in return I suppose. For now it's probably wise to see if he can duplicate what he did last season.
Neil Walker is a guy I'd like to see get an opportunity as well, perhaps by trading off Adam LaRoche and putting the young switch-hitter there.
With Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jose Tabata waiting in the wings the Buccos could get a nice boost in talent here soon. I'd be planning on building around those guys, Doumit and McLouth with everyone else on the trade block.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Pirates' official website for the rotation and closer...
1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Ross Ohelndorf
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Zach Duke
There is a chance, hard as it may be to believe, that this rotation will be better than it was in '08. I think Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke are all better than their '08 numbers indicate. Snell is very talented but needs to find consistency if he's going to live up to his contract.
I like Maholm, who seems to get better each season. He's not a #1 starter - nobody on this team is - but he's solid. Gorzelanny and Duke were awful last season but there is hope - Gorzelanny went 14-10 w/ a 3.89 ERA in '07 and Duke was 10-15 w/ a 4.48 ERA in 200+ innings in '06. If they combine for a 4.50 ERA or lower this season and give the team 180-200 innings each then they'll be solid 4th/5th starters.
The strange one here is Ohlendorf. Why is he listed as the #3 starter? Weird. Guy posts a 6.00+ ERA as a starter AND as a reliever last season and the Pirates' website projects him as the 3rd starter? M'kay. Not buying that.
Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait are filler guys, nothing more, and I'm not sure what prospect Brad Lincoln is at this point.
CL. Matt Capps
He's solid and if healthy will do a fine job of closing games. The Pirates actually have some intriguing guys in the bullpen - John Grabow, Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Sean Burnett, etc. - but if the lineup doesn't produce and the rotation isn't way better than it was last season then none of it will matter.
OVERVIEW
Neal Huntington has his work cut out for him and with the right moves he just might be able to set this team up to be more competitive in 2010. The money they're spending on the infielders (not counting Andy LaRoche) would be better served if it were consolidated into one impact player. Someone like, oh I don't know, Jason Bay.
There are some talented hitters on the way so if they play their cards right, and those young players live up to expectations, then the Pirates just might be able to start thinking about moving up in the standings in a year.
Just not this year.
KW
Monday, January 19, 2009
"The Tale of Todd Wellemeyer"
In case anyone missed it today, the Cardinals gave Todd Wellemeyer a $4.05 million contract for 2009 and avoided an arbitration hearing.
The news of the deal got me to thinking...
How in the hell did the Cubs, Marlins and Royals just flat out give up on this guy?
Here's a big, strapping right handed pitcher who can reach the mid 90's with his fastball to go along with a pretty good slider and you've got three teams that wash their hands of him in 2-year span?
The funny thing is - well, not so funny for the teams that gave up on - that he'd be doing in his thing as a starter in the minors and then he'd get called up to the big leagues and immediately be stuck in the bullpen, a place he'd never worked before.
In 107 career minor league games Wellemeyer appeared as a reliever just 10 times.
And people were confused to the point where they gave up on a talented (cheap) young pitcher?
Sometimes the decision makers on big league teams confuse the hell out of me.
Wellemeyer was never a superb minor league pitcher - control problems, difficulty getting past the 5th inning, etc. - but he was always a very gifted player. Was the Royals' rotation in 2007 really so crowded they couldn't find a way to work this guy into the mix?
Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and the Cardinals took a shot on this guy, put him in his natural role and look at what he's done...
13-9 w/ a solid 3.72 ERA in 191 2/3 IP last season, 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts w/ the Cards in '07.
So, 16-10 w/ an ERA around 3.70 in 43 big league starts.
Not bad for a guy picked up off the Royals' scrap heap.
Ah, they're so loaded they'll never miss him....
KW
The news of the deal got me to thinking...
How in the hell did the Cubs, Marlins and Royals just flat out give up on this guy?
Here's a big, strapping right handed pitcher who can reach the mid 90's with his fastball to go along with a pretty good slider and you've got three teams that wash their hands of him in 2-year span?
The funny thing is - well, not so funny for the teams that gave up on - that he'd be doing in his thing as a starter in the minors and then he'd get called up to the big leagues and immediately be stuck in the bullpen, a place he'd never worked before.
In 107 career minor league games Wellemeyer appeared as a reliever just 10 times.
And people were confused to the point where they gave up on a talented (cheap) young pitcher?
Sometimes the decision makers on big league teams confuse the hell out of me.
Wellemeyer was never a superb minor league pitcher - control problems, difficulty getting past the 5th inning, etc. - but he was always a very gifted player. Was the Royals' rotation in 2007 really so crowded they couldn't find a way to work this guy into the mix?
Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and the Cardinals took a shot on this guy, put him in his natural role and look at what he's done...
13-9 w/ a solid 3.72 ERA in 191 2/3 IP last season, 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts w/ the Cards in '07.
So, 16-10 w/ an ERA around 3.70 in 43 big league starts.
Not bad for a guy picked up off the Royals' scrap heap.
Ah, they're so loaded they'll never miss him....
KW
Sunday, January 18, 2009
O's pull fast one on Cubs
Okay, they "took" a fast one from the Cubs...
The O's sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubbies for OF Felix Pie and said they plan on Pie being their everyday LF with Luke Scott getting most of his time at DH and Aubrey Huff becoming the primary starter at 1B.
Nice move by the Birds.
I like Pie and think the Cubs gave up on him way too soon. The guy is 23 years-old (turns 24 Feb. 8), he hits for average, has some pop, has plenty of speed, he can throw and he's cheap. Nice combo if you ask me.
The Cubs should have given him a much longer, more consistent look in the big leagues than they did. Here's a guy that hit .300 with 34 HR and 37 SB over 1,123 Triple-A at-bats in his career and he did that at the ages of 21-22-23.
Why give up on that guy?
Well, maybe there is some method to the apparent madness...
The Jake Peavy rumors won't quit and there has been word leaked out over months that indicates Olson could be a guy that interests the Padres. He was awful last season (9-10, 6.65 ERA in 26 big league starts) and probably doesn't have a ton of upside, but a move to Petco Park might turn him into a solid, cheap 4th starter in very short order.
If this leads to a deal that brings Peavy to Chicago then my negative feelings about the Cubs giving up on Pie too soon will be withdrawn.
Either way, this is a great move for Baltimore. Suddenly they have a 3-man OF with tools galore that will provide outstanding defense now and in the future. Also, don't discount Pie as a potential 20-HR guy playing at Camden Yards.
He won't walk much but he'll catch the ball, keep base runners from taking liberties and he'll be a 20-20 threat at some point, IMO.
KW
The O's sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubbies for OF Felix Pie and said they plan on Pie being their everyday LF with Luke Scott getting most of his time at DH and Aubrey Huff becoming the primary starter at 1B.
Nice move by the Birds.
I like Pie and think the Cubs gave up on him way too soon. The guy is 23 years-old (turns 24 Feb. 8), he hits for average, has some pop, has plenty of speed, he can throw and he's cheap. Nice combo if you ask me.
The Cubs should have given him a much longer, more consistent look in the big leagues than they did. Here's a guy that hit .300 with 34 HR and 37 SB over 1,123 Triple-A at-bats in his career and he did that at the ages of 21-22-23.
Why give up on that guy?
Well, maybe there is some method to the apparent madness...
The Jake Peavy rumors won't quit and there has been word leaked out over months that indicates Olson could be a guy that interests the Padres. He was awful last season (9-10, 6.65 ERA in 26 big league starts) and probably doesn't have a ton of upside, but a move to Petco Park might turn him into a solid, cheap 4th starter in very short order.
If this leads to a deal that brings Peavy to Chicago then my negative feelings about the Cubs giving up on Pie too soon will be withdrawn.
Either way, this is a great move for Baltimore. Suddenly they have a 3-man OF with tools galore that will provide outstanding defense now and in the future. Also, don't discount Pie as a potential 20-HR guy playing at Camden Yards.
He won't walk much but he'll catch the ball, keep base runners from taking liberties and he'll be a 20-20 threat at some point, IMO.
KW
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