Early 2009 Power Rankings #27

Time for yet another installment of TBG's early 2009 Power Rankings. You can find #'s 28, 29 and 30 below...

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.

27. Washington Nationals

These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.

I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.

Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.

In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.

LINEUP

According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:

C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes

There is some potential there...

Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.

Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.

Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.

Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...

Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.

Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.

Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.

Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.

As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.

PITCHING

Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:

1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester

Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.

Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.

Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.

The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.

Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.

CL. Joel Hanrahan

Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.

Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.

OVERVIEW

The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.

The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).

This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.

KW