2009 Early Power Rankings - #30

And so it begins...

Even though there are still dozens of relatively big name free agents available it's time to get going with my 2009 Pre-Season Power Rankings. I'll go one team at a time, starting from #30 and working my way up to the top of the list.

The reason I'm doing it this way is simple - the teams at the bottom of my list don't seem to be on the verge of making moves that will have an immediate impact on their teams. The teams in the middle are more likely to make moves that could change their fortunes so my secret list will probably undergo some adjustments over the next 5-6 weeks.

Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out. This is just to get the ball rolling.

Time to get down to business...

30. San Diego Padres

Wow. Just wow.

This team is incredibly weak and it would seem that 2009 is nothing more than a building year for Kevin Towers and Co., especially given that the Jake Peavy trade rumors simply refuse to go away.

Lineup

According to the Padres official website, here are their projected starters...

C. Nick Hundley
1B. Adrian Gonzalez
2B. Edgar Gonzalez
3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS. Luis Rodriguez
LF. Chase Headley
CF. Scott Hairston/Jody Gerut
RF. Brian Giles.

Eww. A. Gonzalez is a superstar and Giles is a serviceable offensive player, though he has no business batting leadoff on this team because they have so few people who can drive in runs. After that, nothing excites me.

Hairston and Gerut are fourth outfielders - at best - on a good team. Kouzmanoff has some power and should drive in some runs but his 4-to-1 career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just terrible. E. Gonzalez and Rodriguez are utility men. Hundley hit .237 with 52 strikeouts in 198 at-bats w/ the Pads last year.

Headley is a talented young player with a lot of upside but he's got to make better contact going forward than he did in 2008 (104 K in 331 AB). I like him, though, and expect him to hit 20-25 HR while raising his average, on-base and slugging in '09.

So, what we have here is a team with one legit stud, one middle of the road veteran, one young veteran with some pop and good switch-hitting power prospect and a bunch of roster filler.

This is going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, maybe the lowest, and there isn't much hope of the team making any serious upgrades between now and Opening Day.

2B Matt Antonelli could be a factor as a decent hitting middle infielder. OF Kellen Kulbacki might be ready in late '09 or early '10 but I'd like to see something from him at the upper levels before getting too excited, though he did have a great '08 season. 1B Kyle Blanks is a monster with big-time power but he's not quite ready for the Majors AND he's blocked by the one real star this team has. OF Cedric Hunter has talent but isn't close to being ready.

Pitching

I'll refer to the Padres official website for their rotation and closer...

1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Josh Geer
5. Wade LeBlanc

When you consider the possibility - heck, probability - that Peavy will be dealt in the next month this looks like an awful rotation. If he sticks around the Pads have one of the best starters in the National League to call upon every 5th day but I doubt it will do much good.

Young is a nice 2-3 starter when healthy but none of the others are all that inspiring. Geer posted nice numbers in 5 starts for the Pads but don't be fooled - PCL hitters batted .285 against him and his ERA was 4.54 in 28 games (27 starts) at Portland. Baek was once a decent prospect but he turns 29 in May and has just 59 big league games under his belt. LeBlanc is nothing to write home about either. The 24 year-old posted a 5.32 ERA at Triple-A Portland and sported an 8.02 ERA in 5 games (4 starts) for the Padres.

There is definitely room for competition here, though I suspect they'll bring in a veteran or two on Spring Training invites or incentive laden deals. They could also add volume in a Peavy deal but quantity never beats quality in the Majors.

Cesar Carrillo, Mat Latos and Will Inman are worth keeping an eye on in '09. Looks like the Pads will be needing some help.

CL. Heath Bell

Bell was lights out in '07 and the Pads had better hope he reverts to that form in '09. He was pretty good last year, just not as good as the year before. Entering '09 Bell has 2 career saves in 14 opportunities.

Nobody else in the pen does much for me. The league seems to have figured out Cla Meredith, Mike Adams is okay but notthing more and Justin Hampson isn't quite established.

Overview

The Padres have a weak lineup, a paper-thin rotation, a mediocre-at-best bullpen and a farm system with some decent players who don't appear to be Major League ready for the start of '09.

If they're not the worst team in baseball this year they'll be in the bottom three or four for sure.

KW