For those who haven't seen #30 yet, check it out here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-early-power-rankings-30.html
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
Now back to the countdown...
29. Seattle Mariners
Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to baseball's most disappointing team in 2008 - the Seattle Mariners!
Can you imagine spending $117 million on a team to win 61 games?
I don't know whether that's hysterical or just pathetic. Okay, it's both.
There's a new regime in place in the Great Northwest for 2009 so maybe they'll be able to turn things around at some point but they have one hell of a crater to dig themselves out of. Lots of bad contracts, very little offensive punch and not much available in terms of prospects ready to make a big league impact. I wish them luck...
LINEUP
According to the Mariners official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jeff Clement
1B. Bryan LaHair
2B. Jose Lopez
3B. Adrian Beltre
SS. Yuniesky Betancourt
LF. Endy Chavez
CF. Franklin Gutierrez
RF. Ichiro Suzuki
DH. Russell Branyan
Now, I'm not sure that's exactly what the lineup will look like on Opening Day but I do know that whatever changes might come this club isn't exactly in position to snag a top tier free agent. Only the Oakland A's scored fewer runs than the Mariners in the AL last season. The A's went out and added Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to their lineup while the Mariners watched their best hitter from '08, Raul Ibanez, leave via free agency.
Kenji Johjima will play some because he's getting paid too much to be a pure backup. I'm sure the team would like Wladimir Balentien to win the LF job over Chavez but his .592 OPS w/ a strikeout every third at-bat in '08 didn't exactly inspire confidence. Maybe Mike Carp pushes LaHair at 1B, but in all honesty, what's the difference between the two?
The only guy in the lineup with proven Major League power is Beltre and he's inconsistent. Lopez is okay but not a force by any means. Clement has potential to be a solid power guy but making contact at the big league level has been a bit of a challenge for him so far. I thought Gutierrez was a bit of a sleeper heading into '08 but he stunk out the joint - not sure what to make of him for '09. Betancourt is a good glove man but doesn't bring much to the plate aside from the ability to make weak contact (.692 OPS).
That leaves Chavez, LaHair, Branyan and Ichiro to round out the lineup. Chavez is a 4th/5th OF, LaHair doesn't have enough power to be an everyday 1B in the big leagues (though Carp might). Branyan is a Quadruple-A player who is best served playing only a couple of times a week.
Ichiro is the team's only true offensive star but he's 35 years-old and it's beginning to look like he won't be around to see the next Mariners' contender. Maybe they should entertain the thought of trading him at some point during the '09 season. The only problem with that is their owner is Japanese and wants Ichiro for marketing purposes both in Seattle and back in Japan. I bet he'd bring a pretty nice return in a trade, though.
The rest of the bad news - none of the team's top prospects are nearly ready to jump into the mix. Matt Tuiasosopo is a decent-but-not-great prospect who made some strides at Triple-A last year, so maybe he can take over at 3B if they trade Beltre but he's not exactly a "can't miss" guy. Clement is already here. OF's Greg Halman and Michael Saunders need more time, as does stud IF prospect Carlos Triunfel. C Adam Moore might be someone to keep an eye on. OF Dennis Raben has top-end power but hasn't played much pro ball yet, so he'll need some time.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Mariners' official website for the rotation and closer:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith
They list Brandon Morrow as the 6th starter, which is actually pretty hard to believe. He either makes the rotation this year or winds up being their closer, period. He's too good for anything else.
King Felix is a star and he would be a top end starter in just about any rotation. Love him. I'm also a bigger fan of Bedard than most. People seem to be really down on him right now but he's got excellent stuff and I won't write him off just yet.
Washburn's an okay 4th/5th starter but $9.5 million is too much to pay him. Silva flat out stinks. It sounds like hindsight (though I said it loud and clear at the time), but his contract is one of the worst in baseball history. He was erratic in Minnesota, he doesn't miss many bats and there are simply too many guys who there who can do what he does to justify that 4-year, $48 million contract. Brutal.
Rowland-Smith is interesting - live arm and some success at the end of last season in the big leagues - but not a known commodity. While Morrow has amazing talent, I actually like him finishing games better than I like him as a starter. He can be a lights-out closer for the next 10 years if they use him in that role.
Prospects Phillipe Aumont and Juan Ramirez are talented but not ready for prime time entering 2009.
CL. Aaron Heilman
Actually, the Mariners' website lists Roy Corcoran atop the list of relievers but I find it hard to believe he'll be finishing games. Check that - I find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe he'll be finishing games.
If Morrow isn't going to close, Heilman's the right guy to start off with. Miguel Batista has had some success finishing games in his career (another horrible contract, by the way) and maybe he can get into the mix there too. I also like Mark Lowe's arm but I don't think he's closer material just yet.
The way I'd do it if I were in manager Don Wakamatsu's shoes would be to have Morrow closing games with Heilman and Batista working as starters in Spring Training. That way if Bedard isn't going to be ready, or if Rowland-Smith takes a step back, one of them can start with the other returning to a setup role.
OVERVIEW
This is an organization that is absolutely floundering at the moment. Maybe the team's new leadership can turn things around but it certainly won't happen overnight. I would advise trading off guys like Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima (if you can) and any starter not named Hernandez or Morrow to build for 2010.
By then some of these players will have answered questions and the team should be in a better position to recover once guys like Triunfel, Raben, Halman, Saunders and Aumont are ready to contribute.
For now, however, they look like the worst team in the AL to me.
KW
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My favorite part of the Ms' 2008 was how their starting DH posted a .611 OPS. .611!!!!
ReplyDeleteThis is the man who you are paying to hit. That's his only job. And he's pretty much the worst hitter in baseball (not counting Corey Patterson).
The Mariners are like the Yankees were for the last couple of years, with all these terrible contracts rotting on their books. Unlike the Yankees, they actually have to rely on the terrible players they signed...
The whole thing is sad, because they have a couple of really good young pitchers. I am not as sold as you that Morrow should close, though. If for no other reason that the 9th inning is usually too late to help the Mariners, since they're almost always losing at that point.
My God, that was pathetic wasn't it? How can any self-respecting baseball man continue to bat a guy like Vidro in the DH spot? For God's sake, grab some 19 year-old from Low-A and throw him in there. He couldn't fare any worse...
ReplyDeleteThe M's probably agree with you about Morrow and I don't think it would be "wrong" to keep him as a starter, I just thik they have more SP depth (and a couple of more guys on the way) than they do bullpen depth.
You're right about the 9th inning not mattering, at least not until they fix the offense...
Thanks for posting.
KW
On paper, the Mariners should have had a winning record in 2008. Too many position players underperformed (and a few pitchers too) so I can expect statistically better results from most of the returning players in 2009. As a Mariners fan, I want to see Ken Griffey, Jr. back in Seattle. The lineup is power weak and Griffey would add some needed pizazz to the team, from the fans' perspective.
ReplyDeleteSince half the games are played in a pitching-friendly park (Safeco Field), the Mariners don't necessarily need multiple home run hitters, but they do need extra base hits from 1B, 3B, and LF. Ichiro at RF has a pop in his bat (if endless home runs during BP are any indication), but he would probably lose too much on his on-base percentage to swing for power. Therefore, to have a balanced lineup, all three of the other positions need to be filled with players who can produce extra base hits. Of course, the same is true with the DH slot. I like Beltre, especially for his defense, so that leaves 1B, LF, and the DH. If Griffey takes the DH slot, a few more acquisitions will solidify the offense. On the other hand, if the lineup remains much as it is, Wakamatsu should consider making Ichiro a cleanup hitter. This will prove to the other teammates that Ichiro is not the selfish player he is reputed to be: he would sacrifice 30-50 points on his batting average, and would lose 80+ singles, but he would gain 30+ extra base hits. (It has been said that Ichiro is less interested in the team itself than in his ability to produce yet another 200+ hit year.)
With luck, the pitching staff has the potential to be among the league leaders in fewest runs allowed, so I think the GM should continue to focus on adding position players to the mix. 2009 may be a building year, but it is not difficult to imagine at least 70 wins and an even better season in 2010, when the team's payroll will lose dead weight. I don't want to see the widespread trades as Kevin recommends.
I love the optimist in you, man. Don't lose that.
ReplyDeleteThat said, the only "returning" members of the full-time '08 lineup are Ichiro, Lopez, Betancourt and Beltre and I'd argue they performed up to their career averages in '08. Not likely to see much improvement from any of them.
Clement could be a major positive change but he has to show me he can do it before I can count on it.
All of the other projected members of the lineup are new to the team in '09 AND they lost their best hitter in Ibanez.
Not sure I share your optimism about the offense.
I think they have potential w/ the pitching staff but the bullpen is questionable even if Morrow is closing. The rotation is okay - liked the addition of Olson from the Cubs - but Silva and Washburn just can't be counted on.
And Bedard has been in the doghouse from what I understand.
Keep in mind that none of the players I suggested trading is a long-term solution for the M's and some of them won't even be all that helpful in '09. Not sure what the problem would be with dealing them...
Thanks for chiming in, I appreciate it.