Tuesday, January 27, 2009

TBG Top Prospects: 91-100

My first post on this blog was my Top 100 Prospects list and when I posted that I promised a little more detail for each of the players, so today I'm beginning the process of putting the rankings out there along with comments on each player.

As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html

Comments and questions are welcome.

Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.

Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:

http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html

And away we go...

The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)

100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)

Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.

99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)

I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.

98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)

Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.

97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)

Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.

96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)

Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?

95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)

Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.

94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)

Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.

93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)

Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.

92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)

Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.

91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)

Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.

KW

4 comments:

  1. KW - I copied this from your original top 100 list. Let me know what you think. There are quite a few of your top players who are already owned in my league so that will probably explain why our top 10 probably doesn't look very similar at all.

    Here are my top 21 choices for my Minor League draft the second weekend in May. Remember, I don't have any room for any pitchers on my Minor League roster.

    1. Jason Heyward (OF-ATL)
    2. Josh Vitters (3B-CHC)
    3. Beau Mills (1B-CLE)
    4. Logan Morrison (1B-FLA)
    5. Brett Wallace (3B-STL)
    6. Desmond Jennings (OF-TB)
    7. Chris Carter (1B-OAK)
    8. Juan Francisco (3B-CIN)
    9. Elvis Andrus (SS-TEX)
    10. Justin Ruggiano (OF-TB)
    11. Nick Stavinoha (OF-STL)
    12. Scott McClain (1B-SF)
    13. Eric Hosmer (1B-KC)
    14. Ivan Ochoa (SS-SF)
    15. Mark Saccomanno (1B-HOU)
    16. Nelson Cruz (OF-TEX)
    17. Jeff Natale (2B-BOS)
    18. Chris Duffy (OF-MIL)
    19. Trevor Crowe (OF-CLE)
    20. Jason Pridie (OF-MIN)
    21. Howie Clark (1B-Min)


    I get the 3rd, 15th, and 21st Minor League picks in our 12 team, keeper league.

    Also, would you recommend picking up Colby Rasmus from STL if the opportunity arises itself? What would you give up for Rasmus?

    ReplyDelete
  2. I'll make this easy for you. Erase all these guys from your list: Howie Clark, Jason Pridie, Jeff Natale, Chris Duffy, Scott McClain, Nick Stavinoha and Justin Ruggiano.

    Clark is 35 years-old. McClain is in that range too. Natale, Duffy, Pride and Ruggiano are not in their teams' plans. Stavinoha is a 4th-5th OF at best - the Cards have Ankiel, Ludwick, Schumaker, Duncan, Barton, Rasmus, Jay, Jones, etc. all ahead of Stavinoha.

    Ochoa's not much of a prospect either - the Giants showed us what they thought of him when they signed Renteria.

    If you can get Rasmus, do it. I think he's legit.

    If you want short-term gain then Nelson Cruz should be higher, but if you're just thinking long term then don't worry about him too much.

    Andrus should be higher. Wallace should be 1-2 on the list. The others are all just fine and you probably can't go wrong.

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Do you see Nelson as a full time player, or like Clint Barmes with a better bat?

    ReplyDelete
  4. With his talent, Nelson should be an everyday player. I doubt he'll be as good as Brandon Phillips but he has the same kind of phyiscal ability.

    It'll be interesting to see how he follows up his strong AFL performance.

    ReplyDelete