Man, this was tough. Getting down to the best first baseman in the game was actually pretty easy but getting this list down to five finalists was BRUTAL. There are so many good first basemen in the game today that I had a really tough time getting from 10 down to a list of 5.
So, in the build up to the Best First Baseman in the Game I'm gonna list two categories, the "honorable mention" group and the "finalists."
Honorable Mention: Prince Fielder (MIL), Adrian Gonzalez (SD), Justin Morneau (MIN), Carlos Pena (TB) and Mark Teixeira (NYY)
Gonzalez and Teixeira are the best in that group, though Morneau is awfully good as well. Fielder and Pena were clearly 9th and 10th to me.
None, however, were good enough for my Top 5.
Finalists: Lance Berkman (HOU), Miguel Cabrera (DET), Ryan Howard (PHI), Albert Pujols (STL) and Kevin Youkilis (BOS)
Man, that's a really good group. It wasn't easy making cuts here.
First to go was Youkilis because he lacks the big-time home run power of the other guys here. He's an excellent glove man, big-time run producer and one of the most patient hitters in the game but the lack of big-time HR power keeps him just below the others.
Next off the list was Ryan Howard. Great home run hitter and RBI man but the rest of his game is lacking compared to every one else. Actually, the best pure "home run hitter" in the game today but that's not enough to be the best all-around at your position.
Cabera was next to go. He's an amazing hitter, a younger Pujols/Manny type, but his defense isn't great over there given his lack of experience and that keeps him from making the top two.
The final cut was Berkman. He's a hell of an all-around player. Great bat, excellent power, great glove and good on the bases as well. He's just not Albert.
Pujols is easily the best first baseman on the planet. He does it all and he does it all exceptionally well. As difficult as it was to get the list down to the five finalists it was just that easy to come to the conclusion that Pujols was #1 on the list.
Honestly, I don't see anyone disagreeing with this selection.
Thoughts?
KW
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
USA, USA, USA!
Wow, what a comeback win by the good ol' U.S. of A last night in Miami...
You would have thought those guys won the World Series - better yet the Little League World Series - the way they dogpiled after David Wright's game winning hit. That was pretty cool.
Best Team USA win since they took Gold in the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Makes up for that ugly 11-1 drubbing at the hands of Puerto Rico the other day, too.
Now they get a chance to replace some of their walking wounded on the roster and they'll need every single body they can get for the final round.
Who says the American players don't care about the World Baseball Classic?
Those boys sure looked like they cared last night.
KW
You would have thought those guys won the World Series - better yet the Little League World Series - the way they dogpiled after David Wright's game winning hit. That was pretty cool.
Best Team USA win since they took Gold in the 2000 Sydney Olympics. Makes up for that ugly 11-1 drubbing at the hands of Puerto Rico the other day, too.
Now they get a chance to replace some of their walking wounded on the roster and they'll need every single body they can get for the final round.
Who says the American players don't care about the World Baseball Classic?
Those boys sure looked like they cared last night.
KW
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Best of the Best - Catchers
Who is the best player in baseball at each position?
Tough question, no doubt, but it's something I've been kicking around with some friends and it made for some great debate. Okay, it led to some arguments, but it was fun...
To me, the best player at a given position needs to be the best all-around player, not just dominant in one area or another. For example, to me Mike Piazza was never the "best catcher in the game" because he was deficient on defense.
I'm looking for the balance of all things in position players - hitting, hitting for power, speed, fielding and throwing. In pitchers I'm looking for consistency and ability to dominate opposing hitters.
In other words, these guys need to do things other players at their position can't do.
I'll give you my choices, along with finalists, and you're welcome to do the same in the comments section...
Today it's the catchers:
Finalists: Russell Martin (LAD), Joe Mauer (MIN), Brian McCann (ATL), Yadier Molina (STL), Geovany Soto (CHC)
That's a tough group to choose from. They're all well-rounded players with leadership skills in addition to their game skill. Here's how I whittled it down:
Martin was the first to come off the list. He's not as good a hitter - to me - as Mauer, McCann or Soto and he's not as good a defender as Molina.
The next one off the list was Molina. He's the best defensive catcher in baseball and he has made strides offensively but he lacks the power and patience of Mauer, McCann and Soto.
Next off my list is McCann. Another excellent player but I don't like his defensive game as much as I like Mauer's or Soto's.
The last cut - Joe Mauer. Too many injuries and not enough power when compared to Soto.
Soto hits for a solid average, he hits the ball over the wall, he drives in runs, he draws walks and he's a strong defensive player as well. He's not a Gold Glover but he's good behind the plate and he can flat out hit.
Now, I realize that Soto is still young and hasn't done it for a long stretch but that's not the point of this discussion. I'm talking about a one-year setting, 2009, as things stand right now.
Right now I think Geovany Soto is the best all-around catcher in the game.
What do you think?
KW
Tough question, no doubt, but it's something I've been kicking around with some friends and it made for some great debate. Okay, it led to some arguments, but it was fun...
To me, the best player at a given position needs to be the best all-around player, not just dominant in one area or another. For example, to me Mike Piazza was never the "best catcher in the game" because he was deficient on defense.
I'm looking for the balance of all things in position players - hitting, hitting for power, speed, fielding and throwing. In pitchers I'm looking for consistency and ability to dominate opposing hitters.
In other words, these guys need to do things other players at their position can't do.
I'll give you my choices, along with finalists, and you're welcome to do the same in the comments section...
Today it's the catchers:
Finalists: Russell Martin (LAD), Joe Mauer (MIN), Brian McCann (ATL), Yadier Molina (STL), Geovany Soto (CHC)
That's a tough group to choose from. They're all well-rounded players with leadership skills in addition to their game skill. Here's how I whittled it down:
Martin was the first to come off the list. He's not as good a hitter - to me - as Mauer, McCann or Soto and he's not as good a defender as Molina.
The next one off the list was Molina. He's the best defensive catcher in baseball and he has made strides offensively but he lacks the power and patience of Mauer, McCann and Soto.
Next off my list is McCann. Another excellent player but I don't like his defensive game as much as I like Mauer's or Soto's.
The last cut - Joe Mauer. Too many injuries and not enough power when compared to Soto.
Soto hits for a solid average, he hits the ball over the wall, he drives in runs, he draws walks and he's a strong defensive player as well. He's not a Gold Glover but he's good behind the plate and he can flat out hit.
Now, I realize that Soto is still young and hasn't done it for a long stretch but that's not the point of this discussion. I'm talking about a one-year setting, 2009, as things stand right now.
Right now I think Geovany Soto is the best all-around catcher in the game.
What do you think?
KW
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Tweaking the WBC
I really like the World Baseball Classic.
It's not the greatest baseball competition in the world but at a time of year when I'm jonesin' for some competitive hardball it'll do. I enjoy the emotion, the passion and the competition.
All that said, the setup is far from perfect.
I'd love to see MLB move this game to the Fall, playing in it in the weeks that follow the World Series. Here's why:
1. The players are all in shape, ready to go at 100% capacity and if someone does get hurt they have until March to get themselves ready for the following season.
2. You won't have to have innings or pitch limits, making the whole thing more like "real baseball" than exhibition baseball. We're only talking about 2-3 extra starts for SP's and only a handful more appearances for RP's so it's not like they're going to "wear down."
3. Players on teams who are not in the MLB post-season could work out together, creating a little of the in-game chemistry that a country like Cuba has.
There are potential problems with this idea, like the fact that free agents could sit out so they don't get hurt and going up against football, but those problems aren't as great as the ones that exist as things are right now.
Heck, teh WBC is going up against March Madness now. At least football is primarly played on Saturdays and Sundays.
Let's set this thing up in the Fall, play the games in Puerto Rico, Florida, Arizona, California, etc. and let the games be played more like the real thing.
KW
It's not the greatest baseball competition in the world but at a time of year when I'm jonesin' for some competitive hardball it'll do. I enjoy the emotion, the passion and the competition.
All that said, the setup is far from perfect.
I'd love to see MLB move this game to the Fall, playing in it in the weeks that follow the World Series. Here's why:
1. The players are all in shape, ready to go at 100% capacity and if someone does get hurt they have until March to get themselves ready for the following season.
2. You won't have to have innings or pitch limits, making the whole thing more like "real baseball" than exhibition baseball. We're only talking about 2-3 extra starts for SP's and only a handful more appearances for RP's so it's not like they're going to "wear down."
3. Players on teams who are not in the MLB post-season could work out together, creating a little of the in-game chemistry that a country like Cuba has.
There are potential problems with this idea, like the fact that free agents could sit out so they don't get hurt and going up against football, but those problems aren't as great as the ones that exist as things are right now.
Heck, teh WBC is going up against March Madness now. At least football is primarly played on Saturdays and Sundays.
Let's set this thing up in the Fall, play the games in Puerto Rico, Florida, Arizona, California, etc. and let the games be played more like the real thing.
KW
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Mailbag - How are the Cubs better than the Cards
That's the question posed to me by "anonymous" (aren't anonymous posts the greatest!)...
Rather than re-state the question, here it is:
"Anonymous said...
How exactly are the Cubs better than the Cardinals? I'm awfully tired of seeing people write that and hearing people say it. It's BS!! Let's do a comparison. I don't have time to do every play, but..."
Anonymous went on to do his position-by-position analysis, which is was hysterical. I highly recommend reading it here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/03/baseball-gods-2009-power-rankings-as-of.html#comments
Anyway, since the question was asked I'll go position-by-position and explain exactly why the Cubs are better than the Cards and why everyone in the baseball universe thinks so...
C. Yadier Molina vs. Geovany Soto
Molina is the better glove man, though not by a heck of lot. Soto is pretty good with the leather. Offensively, they're not even close. Molina had a decent average but his .741 OPS was pedestrian. Soto posted an .868 OPS in part because of his 26 HR.
Edge Cubs
1B. Albert Pujols vs. Derrek Lee
Lee's a nice player but not in Albert's league. Easy one...
Edge Cards
2B. Skip Schumaker/??? vs. Mike Fontentot/Aaron Miles
We don't even know who is gonna be playing 2B for the Cards. The Schumaker Experiment is losing some steam and nobody will be all that excited by Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston or Tyler Greene there.
Even if Skip wins the full-time job he'll be easily the worst defender of the group and his bat is no better than Fontenot's and Miles give the Cubs the reliability the Cards had last year.
Edge Cubs
3B. Troy Glaus/Joe Mather vs. Aramis Ramirez
How could this not be an edge for the Cubs? Glaus is gonna miss April after shoulder surgery and who knows when he'll be "right" physically? Plus, even if Glaus is healthy, Ramirez is the better player. He's more consistent at the plate, hasn't been as injury prone and isn't a horrible fielder.
Glaus is better with the glove but his throwing arm is the one that needed surgery. I'll take 6 months over Ramirez over 1 month of Mather and 5 months of Glaus.
If Glaus is 100% this is close but Ramirez would still get a slight edge.
Edge Cubs
SS. Khalil Greene vs. Ryan Theriot
I'm not a huge Theriot fan but he's a .290 career hitter and is much more consistent at the plate than Greene is. Brings an element of speed that Greene doesn't have as well. Greene has more power and is a better defender so I think that levels things out a bit.
Since I think Greene is better than is '08 numbers show I'll call it a draw.
Even
LF. Chris Duncan/Colby Rasmus vs. Alfonso Soriano
Come on, now. This is easy. In two years maybe it won't be because I'm a "Believer" when it comes to Rasmus, I think he's the real deal. But for now Soriano is the proven star here.
Duncan figures to play a ton if he's healthy and since he's even worse than Soriano defensively I'd say the Cubs win this matchup. Soriano has 7-straight seasons with at least 28 HR (he had 29 HR last year despite missing a ton of games) and he topped 30 in 5 of those seasons.
Duncan can hit, but not like that. Rasmus has even more raw talent than Soriano but hasn't done it at the big league level.
Edge Cubs
CF. Rick Ankiel vs. Kosuke Fukudome
I'll take Ankiel, no problem. Better power, best OF arm in the game and he's capable of more than we've seen from him.
Edge Cards
RF. Ryan Ludwick vs. Milton Bradley
This has to be a draw. Ludwick has only done it one year and Bradley, with all is problems and injuries, is an incredibly gifted player. I trust Ludwick more but Bradley is the better all-around talent.
Even
SP. Chris Carpenter vs. Carlos Zambrano
Okay, Big Z has had some arm problems but not like Carp, who has made 1 start in two years. When they're both 100% they're equals but Zambrano is the safer bet between them entering '09 because he's pitched more.
Edge Cubs
SP. Adam Wainwright vs. Ted Lilly
This is a very tough matchup. Lilly is a very underrated, consistent starter. That said, I like Wainwright better. Lilly is what he is but I think Wainwright is still getting better. I'll go with the big righty.
Edge Cards
SP. Kyle Lohse vs. Ryan Dempster
Another tough one. Both were excellent last season - and Dempster was the better of the two - but neither has proven themselves as a consistent Major League starter. It's a draw.
Even
SP. Todd Wellemeyer vs. Rich Harden
Now, I love Wellemeyer. He's a heck of a pitcher and could get better this year but Harden is easily the more gifted of the two. Harden is an injury risk, no doubt, but even with that I can't give the Cards the edge here because when he's right Harden is a dominator. Wellemeyer is really good, just not as good as Harden.
Edge Cubs
SP. Joel Pineiro vs. Sean Marshall/Aaron Heilman
Pineiro can't be trusted, simple as that. He's been erratic virtually his entire career. Marshall is still a bit of an unknown as a big league starter and Heilman has been a reliever of late but I'd trade Pineiro for either one of them.
Edge Cubs
CL. Ryan Franklin/Josh Kinney/Jason Motte/Chris Perez vs. Carlos Marmol
Marmol was easily the most dominant pitcher of any in that group the last two years. He's a stud, plain an simple. Motte and Perez both have stuff to rival Marmol but they don't have two years of proving it at the Major League level. Neither Franklin nor Kinney can match Marmol's stuff. Kevin Gregg is a decent insurance policy for Marmol too.
Edge Cubs
BP. Cards bullpen vs. Cubs bullpen
Aside from the 9th inning I think these two teams are even. They both have depth and a combination of hard throwers and plain ol' good pitchers. Not much to differentiate these two in the pen.
Even
Cards Manager/Coaches vs. Cubs Manager/Coaches
I'll go with a slight edge to Tony LaRussa and his staff but it's not a huge difference. Lou Piniella is a good manager with a solid staff.
Edge Cards
So, by my "tale of the tape" the Cubs have the edge in 9 spots, the Cards have the edge in 4 spots and the two teams are even in 4 spots.
With good health the Cardinals can definitely give the Cubs a run for their money in '09 but they have more question marks than the Cubbies do.
Oh yeah, and the Cubs were 11.5 games better than the Cards last year.
Even if the Cubbies drop off by a couple of games do the Cards gain 8-10 wins over '08?
Could be but that's a lot of ground to make up.
There, that's why I have the Cubs ahead of the Cards in my Power Rankings.
You asked, Anonymous, and I answered...
KW
Rather than re-state the question, here it is:
"Anonymous said...
How exactly are the Cubs better than the Cardinals? I'm awfully tired of seeing people write that and hearing people say it. It's BS!! Let's do a comparison. I don't have time to do every play, but..."
Anonymous went on to do his position-by-position analysis, which is was hysterical. I highly recommend reading it here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/03/baseball-gods-2009-power-rankings-as-of.html#comments
Anyway, since the question was asked I'll go position-by-position and explain exactly why the Cubs are better than the Cards and why everyone in the baseball universe thinks so...
C. Yadier Molina vs. Geovany Soto
Molina is the better glove man, though not by a heck of lot. Soto is pretty good with the leather. Offensively, they're not even close. Molina had a decent average but his .741 OPS was pedestrian. Soto posted an .868 OPS in part because of his 26 HR.
Edge Cubs
1B. Albert Pujols vs. Derrek Lee
Lee's a nice player but not in Albert's league. Easy one...
Edge Cards
2B. Skip Schumaker/??? vs. Mike Fontentot/Aaron Miles
We don't even know who is gonna be playing 2B for the Cards. The Schumaker Experiment is losing some steam and nobody will be all that excited by Brendan Ryan, Joe Thurston or Tyler Greene there.
Even if Skip wins the full-time job he'll be easily the worst defender of the group and his bat is no better than Fontenot's and Miles give the Cubs the reliability the Cards had last year.
Edge Cubs
3B. Troy Glaus/Joe Mather vs. Aramis Ramirez
How could this not be an edge for the Cubs? Glaus is gonna miss April after shoulder surgery and who knows when he'll be "right" physically? Plus, even if Glaus is healthy, Ramirez is the better player. He's more consistent at the plate, hasn't been as injury prone and isn't a horrible fielder.
Glaus is better with the glove but his throwing arm is the one that needed surgery. I'll take 6 months over Ramirez over 1 month of Mather and 5 months of Glaus.
If Glaus is 100% this is close but Ramirez would still get a slight edge.
Edge Cubs
SS. Khalil Greene vs. Ryan Theriot
I'm not a huge Theriot fan but he's a .290 career hitter and is much more consistent at the plate than Greene is. Brings an element of speed that Greene doesn't have as well. Greene has more power and is a better defender so I think that levels things out a bit.
Since I think Greene is better than is '08 numbers show I'll call it a draw.
Even
LF. Chris Duncan/Colby Rasmus vs. Alfonso Soriano
Come on, now. This is easy. In two years maybe it won't be because I'm a "Believer" when it comes to Rasmus, I think he's the real deal. But for now Soriano is the proven star here.
Duncan figures to play a ton if he's healthy and since he's even worse than Soriano defensively I'd say the Cubs win this matchup. Soriano has 7-straight seasons with at least 28 HR (he had 29 HR last year despite missing a ton of games) and he topped 30 in 5 of those seasons.
Duncan can hit, but not like that. Rasmus has even more raw talent than Soriano but hasn't done it at the big league level.
Edge Cubs
CF. Rick Ankiel vs. Kosuke Fukudome
I'll take Ankiel, no problem. Better power, best OF arm in the game and he's capable of more than we've seen from him.
Edge Cards
RF. Ryan Ludwick vs. Milton Bradley
This has to be a draw. Ludwick has only done it one year and Bradley, with all is problems and injuries, is an incredibly gifted player. I trust Ludwick more but Bradley is the better all-around talent.
Even
SP. Chris Carpenter vs. Carlos Zambrano
Okay, Big Z has had some arm problems but not like Carp, who has made 1 start in two years. When they're both 100% they're equals but Zambrano is the safer bet between them entering '09 because he's pitched more.
Edge Cubs
SP. Adam Wainwright vs. Ted Lilly
This is a very tough matchup. Lilly is a very underrated, consistent starter. That said, I like Wainwright better. Lilly is what he is but I think Wainwright is still getting better. I'll go with the big righty.
Edge Cards
SP. Kyle Lohse vs. Ryan Dempster
Another tough one. Both were excellent last season - and Dempster was the better of the two - but neither has proven themselves as a consistent Major League starter. It's a draw.
Even
SP. Todd Wellemeyer vs. Rich Harden
Now, I love Wellemeyer. He's a heck of a pitcher and could get better this year but Harden is easily the more gifted of the two. Harden is an injury risk, no doubt, but even with that I can't give the Cards the edge here because when he's right Harden is a dominator. Wellemeyer is really good, just not as good as Harden.
Edge Cubs
SP. Joel Pineiro vs. Sean Marshall/Aaron Heilman
Pineiro can't be trusted, simple as that. He's been erratic virtually his entire career. Marshall is still a bit of an unknown as a big league starter and Heilman has been a reliever of late but I'd trade Pineiro for either one of them.
Edge Cubs
CL. Ryan Franklin/Josh Kinney/Jason Motte/Chris Perez vs. Carlos Marmol
Marmol was easily the most dominant pitcher of any in that group the last two years. He's a stud, plain an simple. Motte and Perez both have stuff to rival Marmol but they don't have two years of proving it at the Major League level. Neither Franklin nor Kinney can match Marmol's stuff. Kevin Gregg is a decent insurance policy for Marmol too.
Edge Cubs
BP. Cards bullpen vs. Cubs bullpen
Aside from the 9th inning I think these two teams are even. They both have depth and a combination of hard throwers and plain ol' good pitchers. Not much to differentiate these two in the pen.
Even
Cards Manager/Coaches vs. Cubs Manager/Coaches
I'll go with a slight edge to Tony LaRussa and his staff but it's not a huge difference. Lou Piniella is a good manager with a solid staff.
Edge Cards
So, by my "tale of the tape" the Cubs have the edge in 9 spots, the Cards have the edge in 4 spots and the two teams are even in 4 spots.
With good health the Cardinals can definitely give the Cubs a run for their money in '09 but they have more question marks than the Cubbies do.
Oh yeah, and the Cubs were 11.5 games better than the Cards last year.
Even if the Cubbies drop off by a couple of games do the Cards gain 8-10 wins over '08?
Could be but that's a lot of ground to make up.
There, that's why I have the Cubs ahead of the Cards in my Power Rankings.
You asked, Anonymous, and I answered...
KW
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
The "Miracle on Turf"
I'm shocked.
Floored.
Flabbergasted.
The Netherlands just eliminated the Dominican Republic from the World Baseball Classic in the 1st round...
Wow.
This game surely doesn't have the socio-political impact of the "Miracle On Ice" in Lake Placid, NY but it is certainly one of the biggest upsets I can think of.
A team of has-beens and never-weres - whose best hitter is remember more for his hit on a racing sausage than for his big league career - beats a collection of Major League All-Stars TWICE in four days to eliminate them from a tournament Team Dominicana cares deeply about.
Unreal.
These players from the Netherlands may not be Mike Eruzione, Jim Craig, Mark Johnson or Ken Morrow but they are certainly national heroes now.
Randall Simon?
Eugene Kingsale?
Yurendall de Caster?
Some dudes named Schoop, Stuifbergen and Duursma take out a powerhouse loaded with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz Miguel Tejada, Pedro Martinez, Robinson Cano, Jose Guillen and some of the best arms in the big leagues?
Amazing.
Gotta love the WBC...
KW
Floored.
Flabbergasted.
The Netherlands just eliminated the Dominican Republic from the World Baseball Classic in the 1st round...
Wow.
This game surely doesn't have the socio-political impact of the "Miracle On Ice" in Lake Placid, NY but it is certainly one of the biggest upsets I can think of.
A team of has-beens and never-weres - whose best hitter is remember more for his hit on a racing sausage than for his big league career - beats a collection of Major League All-Stars TWICE in four days to eliminate them from a tournament Team Dominicana cares deeply about.
Unreal.
These players from the Netherlands may not be Mike Eruzione, Jim Craig, Mark Johnson or Ken Morrow but they are certainly national heroes now.
Randall Simon?
Eugene Kingsale?
Yurendall de Caster?
Some dudes named Schoop, Stuifbergen and Duursma take out a powerhouse loaded with the likes of Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, David Ortiz Miguel Tejada, Pedro Martinez, Robinson Cano, Jose Guillen and some of the best arms in the big leagues?
Amazing.
Gotta love the WBC...
KW
Measuring Defense w/ Statistics - No Thanks
I really admire the work that people like John Dewan and Bill James do. They are pioneers in the world of baseball analysis and they, along with countless others, have helped change the way "baseball people" go about their business.
That said, I haven't found a single defensive statistic that I find terribly useful.
I love the concept behind Dewan's Plus/Minus system (http://www.fieldingbible.com/) but there are still too many things that are not quantifiable enough for me to buy into it completely. I also think some of Dewan's new "Defensive Runs Saved" concepts are interesting, yet unconvincing.
I should point out, right off the top, that to my knowledge Dewan doesn't promote either of these stats as "Be All, End All" of defensive evaluation.
The problem is that these things are all subjective, relying completely on the evaluations/decisions made by people watching video of Major League games. Even if those people are "baseball people" (former coaches, scouts, players, etc.) we're still talking about subjective analysis. "Baseball people" don't always see things the same way, afterall.
Now, defensive statistics are better than they used to be and maybe someday Dewan, James or some other forward thinker will have a break through and get it down pat. The problem, however, is there are too many defensive factors that simply cannot be measured.
Positioning, for example.
Let's say Player A has better physical ability than Player B. Quicker feet, better balance, stronger arm, more accurate arm, etc. If they're both in the same pre-pitch spot on the field Player A can make plays that Player B cannot.
On the other hand, Player B is a more "heady" player. He's more up to date on the tendencies of opposing hitters - and perhaps his team has more accurate scouting reports - and therefore he's in the correct position more often than Player A.
Player B could be making "routine" plays all the time because he's in the right position while Player A makes "excellent" plays, in part, because he's not in the best pre-pitch position.
Simply put, there is more to being a strong defensive player than physical skill. Preparation, anticipation and instinct are all significant factors in a player's ability to field his position and none of those factors are quantifiable.
Is the player in the proper pre-pitch position based on scouting information? Is he in tune with how his team is planning on pitching to the opposing hitters? Is he anticipating the play pre-pitch based on these factors?
Does the player throw to the right base consistently? Is the player a "heads-up" or "head in the clouds" kind of guy? Does he get into the proper relay position? Does he hit the cutoff man? How does he play the ball off the wall?
Is the player "saved" by his fellow defenders (like Mark Grace saving Shawon Dunston's butt all the time) or is he the one doing the "saving?"
I just don't see how anyone can place a numerical value on these things. They are bits of invaluable information when it comes to a player's ability to field his position and they are also immeasurable. You can see them with your own two eyes if you know what to look for, which most hardcore baseball observers do, but I just don't see how you can quantify it.
There are other more tangible factors that are not factored in, at least not to my knowledge or satisfaction...
1) Actual velocity of the ball hit (not just a generic term like "soft" or "hard" hit ball, actual MPH - any hitter will tell you, there is a distinct difference between 90 MPH and 95 MPH and when watching the game on video that difference won't be noticeable on a ball put into play)
2) The condition of the field (wet or dry, shorter grass or longer grass, etc. - it's not like every big league field is exactly the same)
3) Variation in spin/bounces (every ball hit is a little different - a "routine" ground ball right at a fielder isn't necessarily "routine" as some balls "kick" or "bite" at the last moment based on how they were hit)
4) Trajectory (was the ball hit at a 45-degree angle, 60-degree angle or 75-degree angle? did it have backspin or topspin? was the ball cutting or slicing? I need more detail than a simple "fly ball/line drive" label)
5) Conditions (sunny w/ a big sky? cloudy? windy? raining? twilight? shawdows? those are all factors in how plays get made, especially difficult plays)
All of those things are "known" factors but they cannot be easily converted into a number. Without those pieces of information nobody can come to an accurate conclusion about the quality of a player's defensive game. Maybe some of that evens out over the course of a 162-game season but not all of it does.
The aforementioned defensive statistics can be helpful when it comes to filling in the blanks on some players when people just don't have the time/ability to judge for themselves, but they're just not complete enough for me to value them over scouting information.
There is just no logical way to turn pages and pages of scouting information into a number. Even though "real" scouts use the 1-8 scale to grade players' physical ability (which I don't much like either) it is included in a detailed report that provides some of the nuance/detail I wrote about above. Plus, most of the "tools" scouts are grading can be measured - velocity on throws, bat speed, 60-yard dash time, home-to-first time, etc.
What all of these defensive statistics come down to, essentially, is a human being assigning a number to a play based on his own subjective analysis. In that sense, defensive statistics are no different than the subjective analysis in a scouting report.
Defensive statistics cannot provide the type of detail a written or spoken-word report can.
Then again, the defensive statistics themselves aren't the real problem.
It's the people who use them improperly - replacing detailed professional analysis with a number - that are probably at the root of my frustration....
KW
That said, I haven't found a single defensive statistic that I find terribly useful.
I love the concept behind Dewan's Plus/Minus system (http://www.fieldingbible.com/) but there are still too many things that are not quantifiable enough for me to buy into it completely. I also think some of Dewan's new "Defensive Runs Saved" concepts are interesting, yet unconvincing.
I should point out, right off the top, that to my knowledge Dewan doesn't promote either of these stats as "Be All, End All" of defensive evaluation.
The problem is that these things are all subjective, relying completely on the evaluations/decisions made by people watching video of Major League games. Even if those people are "baseball people" (former coaches, scouts, players, etc.) we're still talking about subjective analysis. "Baseball people" don't always see things the same way, afterall.
Now, defensive statistics are better than they used to be and maybe someday Dewan, James or some other forward thinker will have a break through and get it down pat. The problem, however, is there are too many defensive factors that simply cannot be measured.
Positioning, for example.
Let's say Player A has better physical ability than Player B. Quicker feet, better balance, stronger arm, more accurate arm, etc. If they're both in the same pre-pitch spot on the field Player A can make plays that Player B cannot.
On the other hand, Player B is a more "heady" player. He's more up to date on the tendencies of opposing hitters - and perhaps his team has more accurate scouting reports - and therefore he's in the correct position more often than Player A.
Player B could be making "routine" plays all the time because he's in the right position while Player A makes "excellent" plays, in part, because he's not in the best pre-pitch position.
Simply put, there is more to being a strong defensive player than physical skill. Preparation, anticipation and instinct are all significant factors in a player's ability to field his position and none of those factors are quantifiable.
Is the player in the proper pre-pitch position based on scouting information? Is he in tune with how his team is planning on pitching to the opposing hitters? Is he anticipating the play pre-pitch based on these factors?
Does the player throw to the right base consistently? Is the player a "heads-up" or "head in the clouds" kind of guy? Does he get into the proper relay position? Does he hit the cutoff man? How does he play the ball off the wall?
Is the player "saved" by his fellow defenders (like Mark Grace saving Shawon Dunston's butt all the time) or is he the one doing the "saving?"
I just don't see how anyone can place a numerical value on these things. They are bits of invaluable information when it comes to a player's ability to field his position and they are also immeasurable. You can see them with your own two eyes if you know what to look for, which most hardcore baseball observers do, but I just don't see how you can quantify it.
There are other more tangible factors that are not factored in, at least not to my knowledge or satisfaction...
1) Actual velocity of the ball hit (not just a generic term like "soft" or "hard" hit ball, actual MPH - any hitter will tell you, there is a distinct difference between 90 MPH and 95 MPH and when watching the game on video that difference won't be noticeable on a ball put into play)
2) The condition of the field (wet or dry, shorter grass or longer grass, etc. - it's not like every big league field is exactly the same)
3) Variation in spin/bounces (every ball hit is a little different - a "routine" ground ball right at a fielder isn't necessarily "routine" as some balls "kick" or "bite" at the last moment based on how they were hit)
4) Trajectory (was the ball hit at a 45-degree angle, 60-degree angle or 75-degree angle? did it have backspin or topspin? was the ball cutting or slicing? I need more detail than a simple "fly ball/line drive" label)
5) Conditions (sunny w/ a big sky? cloudy? windy? raining? twilight? shawdows? those are all factors in how plays get made, especially difficult plays)
All of those things are "known" factors but they cannot be easily converted into a number. Without those pieces of information nobody can come to an accurate conclusion about the quality of a player's defensive game. Maybe some of that evens out over the course of a 162-game season but not all of it does.
The aforementioned defensive statistics can be helpful when it comes to filling in the blanks on some players when people just don't have the time/ability to judge for themselves, but they're just not complete enough for me to value them over scouting information.
There is just no logical way to turn pages and pages of scouting information into a number. Even though "real" scouts use the 1-8 scale to grade players' physical ability (which I don't much like either) it is included in a detailed report that provides some of the nuance/detail I wrote about above. Plus, most of the "tools" scouts are grading can be measured - velocity on throws, bat speed, 60-yard dash time, home-to-first time, etc.
What all of these defensive statistics come down to, essentially, is a human being assigning a number to a play based on his own subjective analysis. In that sense, defensive statistics are no different than the subjective analysis in a scouting report.
Defensive statistics cannot provide the type of detail a written or spoken-word report can.
Then again, the defensive statistics themselves aren't the real problem.
It's the people who use them improperly - replacing detailed professional analysis with a number - that are probably at the root of my frustration....
KW
Friday, March 6, 2009
The Baseball Gods 2009 Power Rankings (as of March 7)
Here's how I see things right now. Lots can change between now and Opening Day and I will update the Power Rankings again just before the regular season starts as part of my preview/predictions for 2009.
Comments welcome...
1. Red Sox - Bullpen gives them the edge over the Yankees
2. Yankees - Even with the potential loss of A-Rod the Yanks are still loaded
3. Phillies - World Champs might be better than they were in '08
4. Cubs - Sure, they have questions but they also have the most talented team in the NL
5. Angels - Love the addition of Abreu, gives them an OBP guy to go with the Free Swingers
6. Dodgers - With Manny in the fold from Day One the Dodgers are an elite NL squad
7. Mets - If Santana's elbow becomes a problem the Mets slip on this list by Opening Day
8. Rays - They should be even better than '08 if someone takes charge in the 9th
9. Indians - Bullpen is better and I expect rebound years from Carmona & V-Mart
10. Diamondbacks - Offense may be erratic but pitching is very good
11. Twins - Somehow they always find a way to hang in there
12. White Sox - Could be a team that slips in by April 6 depending on bottom of rotation
13. Cardinals - Could move up or down by Opening Day; so far things look okay
14. A's - Love the additions of Halladay and Giambi; they could move up
15. Tigers - They'll hit the ball for sure but their pitching will dictate where they finish
16. Braves - Not enough offense and too many pitching questions; could slip in the rankings
17. Marlins - Love the young talent here; could be a sleeper
18. Brewers - Like the Tigers of the NL; plenty of offense, not enough pitching
19. Blue Jays - They're just a little short on both offense and pitching
20. Giants - Great pitching, not enough offense; finally seem headed in right direction though
21. Astros - Pitching is horrible after Oswalt; they'll hit if they're healthy though
22. Rockies - Like the Blue Jays, just a little short all-around
23. Reds - Love the move toward athleticism but don't see enough run production
24. Rangers - Another team that can mash that's lacking in pitching
25. Orioles - Only one legit starter but I like the move toward young, athletic hitters
26. Royals - Not buying the buzz that they could be better this year. How?
27. Nationals - Pitching will come along but they still have more questions than answers
28. Pirates - Don't like their offense at all and pitching staff is loaded with enigmas
29. Mariners - Some good young pitchers for sure but lineup stinks out loud
30. Padres - Not enough pitching + not enough hitting + not enough defense = worst in MLB
KW
Comments welcome...
1. Red Sox - Bullpen gives them the edge over the Yankees
2. Yankees - Even with the potential loss of A-Rod the Yanks are still loaded
3. Phillies - World Champs might be better than they were in '08
4. Cubs - Sure, they have questions but they also have the most talented team in the NL
5. Angels - Love the addition of Abreu, gives them an OBP guy to go with the Free Swingers
6. Dodgers - With Manny in the fold from Day One the Dodgers are an elite NL squad
7. Mets - If Santana's elbow becomes a problem the Mets slip on this list by Opening Day
8. Rays - They should be even better than '08 if someone takes charge in the 9th
9. Indians - Bullpen is better and I expect rebound years from Carmona & V-Mart
10. Diamondbacks - Offense may be erratic but pitching is very good
11. Twins - Somehow they always find a way to hang in there
12. White Sox - Could be a team that slips in by April 6 depending on bottom of rotation
13. Cardinals - Could move up or down by Opening Day; so far things look okay
14. A's - Love the additions of Halladay and Giambi; they could move up
15. Tigers - They'll hit the ball for sure but their pitching will dictate where they finish
16. Braves - Not enough offense and too many pitching questions; could slip in the rankings
17. Marlins - Love the young talent here; could be a sleeper
18. Brewers - Like the Tigers of the NL; plenty of offense, not enough pitching
19. Blue Jays - They're just a little short on both offense and pitching
20. Giants - Great pitching, not enough offense; finally seem headed in right direction though
21. Astros - Pitching is horrible after Oswalt; they'll hit if they're healthy though
22. Rockies - Like the Blue Jays, just a little short all-around
23. Reds - Love the move toward athleticism but don't see enough run production
24. Rangers - Another team that can mash that's lacking in pitching
25. Orioles - Only one legit starter but I like the move toward young, athletic hitters
26. Royals - Not buying the buzz that they could be better this year. How?
27. Nationals - Pitching will come along but they still have more questions than answers
28. Pirates - Don't like their offense at all and pitching staff is loaded with enigmas
29. Mariners - Some good young pitchers for sure but lineup stinks out loud
30. Padres - Not enough pitching + not enough hitting + not enough defense = worst in MLB
KW
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Programming Note
Just dropping in a little somethin-somethin to let you know that I'm making a change in how I do things here...
I'm cutting off the 2009 Power Rankings team profiles and doing the same for the Top 100 Prospects individual profiles because they just take too damn long to do, plus they're like War and Peace.
Based on time restrictions with my real job, and on advice from lots of friends (in and out of the sports media business), I've come to the decision that a lot of short posts with timely observations will work better than a smaller number long posts that take a lot more time to write and read.
From here on out things will be of the more quick-hitting variety. I'll post the full 2009 Power Rankings next up and save the details for responses to comments/e-mails.
E-mail if you ever have questions, comments, opinions, suggestions, etc.
KW
thebaseballgods@gmail.com
I'm cutting off the 2009 Power Rankings team profiles and doing the same for the Top 100 Prospects individual profiles because they just take too damn long to do, plus they're like War and Peace.
Based on time restrictions with my real job, and on advice from lots of friends (in and out of the sports media business), I've come to the decision that a lot of short posts with timely observations will work better than a smaller number long posts that take a lot more time to write and read.
From here on out things will be of the more quick-hitting variety. I'll post the full 2009 Power Rankings next up and save the details for responses to comments/e-mails.
E-mail if you ever have questions, comments, opinions, suggestions, etc.
KW
thebaseballgods@gmail.com
Thursday, February 26, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #20
( #'s 21-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
20. San Francisco Giants
If these guys had a couple more proven, veteran run producers in the middle of the order they be more of a sure thing as a contender in the NL. They'd also be higher on this list...
The pitching looks just fine, thank you very much, but they'll need some kids to have strong offensive seasons if they're going to make a push for the playoffs. Things are going to be interesting in San Fran this summer.
LINEUP
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected starting lineup:
C. Bengie Molina
1B. Travis Ishikawa
2B. Kevin Frandsen
3B. Pablo Sandoval
SS. Edgar Renteria
LF. Fred Lewis
CF. Aaron Rowand
RF. Randy Winn
Wow, not a lot of pop there. They will put the ball in play, however, and they have a couple of guys who can run so they'll have to scrap and claw to score runs.
Molina isn't an elite hitter but he did drive in 95 runs last season and figures to bat cleanup again this year. Bengie's still a heck of a glove man, too. Ishikawa is a very interesting player. The 25 year-old hit .299/.377/.578 (24 HR) at Double-A and Triple-A combined last season, with the bulk of that coming at the higher level. Could be a sleeper as an emerging hitter this year, though he's not a big upside guy. I'm not buying Frandsen as an everyday player at 2B, just not enough offense for this team. I suspect Emmanuel Burris (a real burner) and Eugenio Velez will get plenty of time there as well. Sandoval is a very interesting guy. He hit .350/.394/.578 in the minors last season and then .345/.357/.490 in 145 big league AB's. Was a catcher in the minors (and could still see occasional action behind the dish), played 1B for the G'men last year and now moves to 3B. Renteria has always been a better player in the NL than in the AL but I don't trust him. Cold weather seems to bother him and SF isn't exactly tropical early or late in the season.
Lewis emerged as a solid Major League outfielder last season. Not a home run guy but does hit doubles and triples, plus he'll take a walk and can swipe a bag here and there. Rowand was a disappointment last season and needs a bounce back season. I don't think it's fair to expect him to hit 25 HR but he does need to kick the average up to the .300 range and drive in some more runs. Winn has always been a nice, solid player but would be a better fit on a team with more pop in the rest of the OF. The good news for him as that the Giants don't have other options ready to push him.
Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and Nate Schierholtz are bench guys who could see somewhat regular playing time if they get hot.
There are some more young hitters on the way as well. C Buster Posey seems to be the heir apparent to Molina, a catcher with big offensive upside. 3B Conor Gillaspie is a good hitter who could be a factor as well, especially if Ishikawa and/or Sandoval struggle. Further down the road is power-hitting prospect 1B Angel Villalona - he's 2-3 years away.
PITCHING
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
This is an excellent rotation. Lincecum, the '08 NL Cy Young Award winner, is as good as there is in the game today. Don't let Cain's 8-14 record last year fool you, he's a stud. Every team in baseball would take him in their rotation. Johnson was 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 K's in 86 IP after the All-Star break in '08. He's still got it, it's just a matter of how many innings he'll be able to go. Zito was actually not terrible after the break last year (6-5, 4.59 ERA) and if he does that for all of '09 this team will really benefit from it. Sanchez was erratic in his first full season as a big league starter last year but his stuff is electric (157 K in 158 IP) and he's still only 26.
The team also has Noah Lowry on the outside looking in and recovering from arm problems. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Sanchez for a bat at some point, if Lowry is healthy of course.
Another reason why the team might be willing to move Sanchez - and maybe Cain down the road as well - is that they've got a couple of high-end pitching prospects on the way. 20 year-old Tim Alderson figures to start this season at Double-A, so he's close. The 6'6" right hander is very polished and pretty much dominated the hitter-friendly California League as a teenager last season. 6'4" lefty Madison Bumgarner is a year behind Alderson but he's a good one (15-3, 1.46 ERA and 164 K/21 BB in 141 2/3 IP at Low-A in '08). He could see Double-A as a 19 year-old in '09.
CL. Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 saves last season but I don't trust him. His control is erratic and he posted a scary 4.62 ERA in '08. He just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy who throws in the mid-to-upper 90's. Maybe he gets better this year but I'm still not 100% sold.
Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt will be the top setup man and leading candidates for saves if Wilson struggles. Sergio Romo posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 Major League games last season and he should also have a significant role.
OVERVIEW
There is a chance, with good health, that the Giants could push for the NL West title this season. They'd need a breakout performance or two on offense - or a trade of pitching for hitting - but they're a lot closer to being where they want to be now than they were just a year ago.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
20. San Francisco Giants
If these guys had a couple more proven, veteran run producers in the middle of the order they be more of a sure thing as a contender in the NL. They'd also be higher on this list...
The pitching looks just fine, thank you very much, but they'll need some kids to have strong offensive seasons if they're going to make a push for the playoffs. Things are going to be interesting in San Fran this summer.
LINEUP
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected starting lineup:
C. Bengie Molina
1B. Travis Ishikawa
2B. Kevin Frandsen
3B. Pablo Sandoval
SS. Edgar Renteria
LF. Fred Lewis
CF. Aaron Rowand
RF. Randy Winn
Wow, not a lot of pop there. They will put the ball in play, however, and they have a couple of guys who can run so they'll have to scrap and claw to score runs.
Molina isn't an elite hitter but he did drive in 95 runs last season and figures to bat cleanup again this year. Bengie's still a heck of a glove man, too. Ishikawa is a very interesting player. The 25 year-old hit .299/.377/.578 (24 HR) at Double-A and Triple-A combined last season, with the bulk of that coming at the higher level. Could be a sleeper as an emerging hitter this year, though he's not a big upside guy. I'm not buying Frandsen as an everyday player at 2B, just not enough offense for this team. I suspect Emmanuel Burris (a real burner) and Eugenio Velez will get plenty of time there as well. Sandoval is a very interesting guy. He hit .350/.394/.578 in the minors last season and then .345/.357/.490 in 145 big league AB's. Was a catcher in the minors (and could still see occasional action behind the dish), played 1B for the G'men last year and now moves to 3B. Renteria has always been a better player in the NL than in the AL but I don't trust him. Cold weather seems to bother him and SF isn't exactly tropical early or late in the season.
Lewis emerged as a solid Major League outfielder last season. Not a home run guy but does hit doubles and triples, plus he'll take a walk and can swipe a bag here and there. Rowand was a disappointment last season and needs a bounce back season. I don't think it's fair to expect him to hit 25 HR but he does need to kick the average up to the .300 range and drive in some more runs. Winn has always been a nice, solid player but would be a better fit on a team with more pop in the rest of the OF. The good news for him as that the Giants don't have other options ready to push him.
Juan Uribe, Rich Aurilia, Dave Roberts and Nate Schierholtz are bench guys who could see somewhat regular playing time if they get hot.
There are some more young hitters on the way as well. C Buster Posey seems to be the heir apparent to Molina, a catcher with big offensive upside. 3B Conor Gillaspie is a good hitter who could be a factor as well, especially if Ishikawa and/or Sandoval struggle. Further down the road is power-hitting prospect 1B Angel Villalona - he's 2-3 years away.
PITCHING
According to the Giants' official website, here is their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Tim Lincecum
2. Matt Cain
3. Randy Johnson
4. Barry Zito
5. Jonathan Sanchez
This is an excellent rotation. Lincecum, the '08 NL Cy Young Award winner, is as good as there is in the game today. Don't let Cain's 8-14 record last year fool you, he's a stud. Every team in baseball would take him in their rotation. Johnson was 5-3 with a 2.41 ERA and 78 K's in 86 IP after the All-Star break in '08. He's still got it, it's just a matter of how many innings he'll be able to go. Zito was actually not terrible after the break last year (6-5, 4.59 ERA) and if he does that for all of '09 this team will really benefit from it. Sanchez was erratic in his first full season as a big league starter last year but his stuff is electric (157 K in 158 IP) and he's still only 26.
The team also has Noah Lowry on the outside looking in and recovering from arm problems. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Sanchez for a bat at some point, if Lowry is healthy of course.
Another reason why the team might be willing to move Sanchez - and maybe Cain down the road as well - is that they've got a couple of high-end pitching prospects on the way. 20 year-old Tim Alderson figures to start this season at Double-A, so he's close. The 6'6" right hander is very polished and pretty much dominated the hitter-friendly California League as a teenager last season. 6'4" lefty Madison Bumgarner is a year behind Alderson but he's a good one (15-3, 1.46 ERA and 164 K/21 BB in 141 2/3 IP at Low-A in '08). He could see Double-A as a 19 year-old in '09.
CL. Brian Wilson
Wilson had 41 saves last season but I don't trust him. His control is erratic and he posted a scary 4.62 ERA in '08. He just doesn't miss enough bats for a guy who throws in the mid-to-upper 90's. Maybe he gets better this year but I'm still not 100% sold.
Bobby Howry and Jeremy Affeldt will be the top setup man and leading candidates for saves if Wilson struggles. Sergio Romo posted a 2.12 ERA in 29 Major League games last season and he should also have a significant role.
OVERVIEW
There is a chance, with good health, that the Giants could push for the NL West title this season. They'd need a breakout performance or two on offense - or a trade of pitching for hitting - but they're a lot closer to being where they want to be now than they were just a year ago.
KW
Tuesday, February 24, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #21
( #'s 22-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
21. Houston Astros
If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.
Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."
All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.
LINEUP
According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence
My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.
Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.
Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."
David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.
There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.
PITCHING
According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler
Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.
The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.
The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.
CL. Jose Valverde
Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.
OVERVIEW
The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.
The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
21. Houston Astros
If not for a few big bats in this lineup, the Astros would be 6-7 spots lower in these rankings. If they have any injuries to their key hitters that's exactly where they'll be in '09, hanging out with the Padres at the bottom of the pile.
Things have really gotten strange in Houston. The owner acts like he's got small market team when in reality H-Town is the 4th largest city in the country, they've seemingly forgotten all about pitching and "defense" is a word that many 'Stros believe is Greek for "waiting to swing the bat."
All that said, there is some hope. There are some kids on the way and they should always have resources - as long as they don't spend unwisely.
LINEUP
According to the Astros' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. J.R. Towles
1B. Lance Berkman
2B. Kaz Matsui
3B. Geoff Blum
SS. Miguel Tejada
LF. Carlos Lee
CF. Michael Bourn
RF. Hunter Pence
My lord, was Towles terrible last year or what? A .137 average? Honestly, I think I could do that against Major League pitching. I don't know what was up with Towles last year but I do know two things: his minor league numbers indicate he's better than that and he will be on a short leash this year, assuming he's the #1 guy on Opening Day. Neither Humberto Quintero or Toby Hall (who is having shoulder trouble again) are much to speak of, so Towles can start if he can hit a little.
Berkman is one of the best hitters in the game, period. Pretty good glove man at first base, too. He's also the cornerstone of the organization. Matsui has finally found his game as a Major League hitter the past two seasons but now he's got to prove he can actually play a full season. He's only topped 400 AB once since his rookie season in '04. I really like Blum as a reserve infielder because he switch hits, plays a bunch of positions and can occasionally hit the ball over the fence but he's not a regular. Neither is Aaron Boone at this point in his career. I don't even like them in a platoon. Tejada is still one of the better hitting shortstops in the game but his defense is suspect. Still, he's a known commodity on a team dealing with a lot of questions marks this spring.
Lee and Pence are excellent pieces of the puzzle in the corner OF spots. As long as he's healthy, Lee is a lock for .300-30-100 every year. He's an offensive stud. Pence has tons of offensive/athletic ability and if he becomes a little more selectice his numbers could make a big leap forward. Worst case, Pence hits .260-.270 with 25 homers and 85 RBI. I'm counting on more from him. To me, Bourn is a 4th OF. He's got amazing speed and tracks down nearly everything in CF but he doesn't hit and he doesn't walk enough. You know the old saying, "you can't steal first base."
David Newhan, Darin Erstad, Jason Michaels and Aaron Boone are all pretty solid reserves but none would be very good options when it comes to regular action.
There is good news on the prospect front for the Astros when it comes to hitters. 6"3" 220 pound 3B Chris Johnson is getting close to big league duty, though there are concerns about him. He has some power but his strikeout-to-walk ratio wasn't great last season and he got shut down by Triple-A pitchers (.252, 1 HR in 101 AB). OF Brian Bogusevic is a guy I like a lot - he strikes me as Rick Ankiel Part II. Former pitcher returns to life as a hitter, great athleticism and good home run power. I wouldn't be surprised if Bogusevic was starting in CF by mid-season. C Jason Castro currently holds the title of "catcher of the future" for the Astros but he was just drafted in '08. Even if he moves quickly he's still probably not going to arrive until September '09 or sometime in '10.
PITCHING
According to the Astros' official website, here's their projected rotation and their closer:
1. Roy Oswalt
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Brandon Backe
4. Mike Hampton
5. Brian Moehler
Look, Oswalt is as good as it gets in the big leagues. He's a legitimate #1 starter, All-Star and Cy Young candidate. After Roy O, however, things get thin in a big-time hurry. Rodriguez is a talented guy who keeps getting better and better but what concerns me is that he's never thrown 200 innings in the big leagues and he turned 30 in January. Backe posted a 6.07 ERA last season and he's projected as the #3 starter? That says a lot, especially considering his 5.10 career ERA. Hampton used to be a good pitcher but he's appeared in a grand total of 15 games over the last 4 seasons. Even when he's been healthy Hampton hasn't shown any kind of consistency since 2000. Moehler was serviceable last season and isn't a terrible 5th starter but he's not a pitcher anyone should be counting on.
The Astros do have Russ Ortiz around as another rotation option but his arm troubles and poor performance in recent years make him nothing more than a low-level gamble. Jose Capellan and Clay Hensley were non-roster invites to Spring Training but they're not big league starters.
The Astros do have a couple of kids to keep an eye on. Felipe Paulino got hurt last season but he's a guy that reaches the upper 90's when he's healthy and he could easily push for a rotation spot if he's okay physically. Bud Norris was a starter in Double-A last season but was pitching out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and dazzled with an upper 90's fastball. Seems like he's headed for relief on a permanent basis. Lefty Pollin Trinidad might not be ready early in the season but he could be a factor later - word is, Trinidad has an excellent change-up.
CL. Jose Valverde
Valverde is a known commodity in the 9th inning and that helps set the rest of the bulllpen up. Nobody else out there really does a heck of a lot for me but LaTroy Hawkins, Geoff Geary and Doug Brocail are all okay. Norris is the guy to watch as he could be the "closer of the future" for the Astros.
OVERVIEW
The Astros middle of the order will keep them reasonably competitve over the course of the season. If by some miracle Hampton is healthy and effective - and if some other pitcher steps up - then they could battle for a Wild Card spot. Those are a couple of HUGE "ifs" at this point.
The franchise isn't about to sink into the depths of the National League but they might need a little retooling here in the next 12 months.
KW
Thursday, February 19, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #22
( #'s 23-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
22. Colorado Rockies
It's hard to believe the Rockies fell as flat as they did in 2008. Okay, maybe it's not. Maybe they just went on a ridiculous run in a weak division and just stayed hot until they ran into the buzz saw that was the Boston Red Sox.
Fluke or not, the Rockies have taken a step or two back and are now in "building" mode. That is not the same as "rebuilding" mode, which is a bit worse.
There are some pieces to work with but they need a few guys to bounce back and be productive at the plate, plus they need a pitcher or two to become much more consistent. The news got worse today on the pitching front as the team will lose lefty Jeff Francis for the season to shoulder surgery.
LINEUP
According to the Rockies' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Chris Iannetta
1B. Todd Helton
2B. Clint Barmes
3B. Garrett Atkins
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Seth Smith
CF. Ryan Spillborghs
RF. Brad Hawpe
Iannetta is a player I like quite a bit. The only question about him right now is whether or not he can do in 500 at-bats what he did in 333 AB in '08 (.895 OPS, 18 HR). I think he can.
Helton is a major question mark even if he's healthy, which is certainly no guarantee. That said, I think the Rockies have enough players that can help fill in at 1B that they'll be okay here unless Helton struggles and Clint Hurdle plays him anyway. Jeff Baker and Joe Koshansky can play 1B, plus the team could shift Garrett Atkins over and play Ian Stewart at 3B.
I don't know what to make of Barmes as an everyday player. He has ability and can play his position but I don't look at him as a "known" commodity for '09. Atkins is a proven hitter who I expect to keep producing good numbers. Don't see any major improvement or decline from him this season. I really think Tulowitzki is going to have a strong bounce-back season in '09. He'd better, otherwise the Rockies will be in big trouble. Expect something along the lines of what he did in '07.
Boy does that outfield look weak without Matt Holliday. Seth Smith listed as the starter in LF? That's gotta be a typo. I'd sooner try Stewart or Baker out there just to get their bats in the lineup. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlos Gonzalez out there. Maybe even Ryan Spillborghs, currently set to start in CF, if Dexter Fowler emerges in CF. Obviously Brad Hawpe is just fine in RF, I'd say expect more of what you've already seen from him.
I have to believe that the outfield by the end of 2009 will be Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe. I just don't think Spillborghs is an everyday player, nor is Smith. Maybe Matt Murton is a sleeper in LF, but even that's a bit of a stretch if you ask me.
As for the prospects to look for, well, Gonzalez and Fowler are about it for this year. None of the team's other offensive prospets - unless you still count Koshansky - are ready for prime time just yet. I think Gonzalez and Fowler can both be impact players, so if the team isn't in contention this year I'd recommend getting them a lot of playing time.
PITCHING
According to the Rockies' official website, here is their projected rotation and closer:
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge De La Rosa
5. Greg Smith
That's actually not a bad group of starters, to be honest. Cook has turned into a solid Major League starter who pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground and therefore in the ballpark. Jimenez has a world of ability, he just needs to throw strikes consistently. Easily the best stuff on the team and the highest upside - also keeps the ball in the park, but unlike Cook strikes people out too. I'm not sure I understand where Marquis is going to be of much help to the Rocks. He's too inconsistent. Maybe they just want innings from him. De La Rosa has talent - and misses plenty of bats - but again, too inconsistent. I could do without him. Smith is okay, though I'm worried about his home run tendencies (21 HR in 190 1/3 IP in '08 in a pitcher's park). K-to-BB ratio not great either. Worth giving a shot, though.
Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsch and Greg Reynolds could also figure into the mix. I really like Morales and Hirsch - if they're both healthy I think they'll make a lot of starts for the Rockies in '09. They have higher upside than guys like Marquis and De La Rosa.
CL. Huston Street/Manny Corpas
Both pitchers are listed as "closers" on the team's website, but I have to think Corpas gets the first shot unless Street has an amazing spring. The best thing for the franchise, however, might be to have Street close to start the season and perform well, thus enhancing his trade value. Corpas is a little better right now, IMO.
Taylor Buchholz is an excellent setup man who I think has the stuff to close if necessary. Alan Embree is a decent lefty.
Right hander Jhoulys Chacin and left hander Christian Friedrich should come along pretty quickly over the next season or two. They're both extremely talented, though Chacin has more upside to me. Casey Weathers may be the closer of the future - he's got great stuff but needs to refine his command.
OVERVIEW
This franchise isn't an a terrible place, they're just in what appears to be a transition year. Their only chance at really doing anything this season would be to have several young guys emerge along with Helton having a resurgent season. If the team doesn't think Gonzalez is ready to play in LF, I'd advise trying to find at-bats for Baker and Stewart.
The best news for '09? The Padres will keep the Rockies from even having a chance at finishing in last place. I do think the future is relatively bright in the Mile High city.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
22. Colorado Rockies
It's hard to believe the Rockies fell as flat as they did in 2008. Okay, maybe it's not. Maybe they just went on a ridiculous run in a weak division and just stayed hot until they ran into the buzz saw that was the Boston Red Sox.
Fluke or not, the Rockies have taken a step or two back and are now in "building" mode. That is not the same as "rebuilding" mode, which is a bit worse.
There are some pieces to work with but they need a few guys to bounce back and be productive at the plate, plus they need a pitcher or two to become much more consistent. The news got worse today on the pitching front as the team will lose lefty Jeff Francis for the season to shoulder surgery.
LINEUP
According to the Rockies' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Chris Iannetta
1B. Todd Helton
2B. Clint Barmes
3B. Garrett Atkins
SS. Troy Tulowitzki
LF. Seth Smith
CF. Ryan Spillborghs
RF. Brad Hawpe
Iannetta is a player I like quite a bit. The only question about him right now is whether or not he can do in 500 at-bats what he did in 333 AB in '08 (.895 OPS, 18 HR). I think he can.
Helton is a major question mark even if he's healthy, which is certainly no guarantee. That said, I think the Rockies have enough players that can help fill in at 1B that they'll be okay here unless Helton struggles and Clint Hurdle plays him anyway. Jeff Baker and Joe Koshansky can play 1B, plus the team could shift Garrett Atkins over and play Ian Stewart at 3B.
I don't know what to make of Barmes as an everyday player. He has ability and can play his position but I don't look at him as a "known" commodity for '09. Atkins is a proven hitter who I expect to keep producing good numbers. Don't see any major improvement or decline from him this season. I really think Tulowitzki is going to have a strong bounce-back season in '09. He'd better, otherwise the Rockies will be in big trouble. Expect something along the lines of what he did in '07.
Boy does that outfield look weak without Matt Holliday. Seth Smith listed as the starter in LF? That's gotta be a typo. I'd sooner try Stewart or Baker out there just to get their bats in the lineup. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see Carlos Gonzalez out there. Maybe even Ryan Spillborghs, currently set to start in CF, if Dexter Fowler emerges in CF. Obviously Brad Hawpe is just fine in RF, I'd say expect more of what you've already seen from him.
I have to believe that the outfield by the end of 2009 will be Gonzalez-Fowler-Hawpe. I just don't think Spillborghs is an everyday player, nor is Smith. Maybe Matt Murton is a sleeper in LF, but even that's a bit of a stretch if you ask me.
As for the prospects to look for, well, Gonzalez and Fowler are about it for this year. None of the team's other offensive prospets - unless you still count Koshansky - are ready for prime time just yet. I think Gonzalez and Fowler can both be impact players, so if the team isn't in contention this year I'd recommend getting them a lot of playing time.
PITCHING
According to the Rockies' official website, here is their projected rotation and closer:
1. Aaron Cook
2. Ubaldo Jimenez
3. Jason Marquis
4. Jorge De La Rosa
5. Greg Smith
That's actually not a bad group of starters, to be honest. Cook has turned into a solid Major League starter who pitches to contact and keeps the ball on the ground and therefore in the ballpark. Jimenez has a world of ability, he just needs to throw strikes consistently. Easily the best stuff on the team and the highest upside - also keeps the ball in the park, but unlike Cook strikes people out too. I'm not sure I understand where Marquis is going to be of much help to the Rocks. He's too inconsistent. Maybe they just want innings from him. De La Rosa has talent - and misses plenty of bats - but again, too inconsistent. I could do without him. Smith is okay, though I'm worried about his home run tendencies (21 HR in 190 1/3 IP in '08 in a pitcher's park). K-to-BB ratio not great either. Worth giving a shot, though.
Franklin Morales, Jason Hirsch and Greg Reynolds could also figure into the mix. I really like Morales and Hirsch - if they're both healthy I think they'll make a lot of starts for the Rockies in '09. They have higher upside than guys like Marquis and De La Rosa.
CL. Huston Street/Manny Corpas
Both pitchers are listed as "closers" on the team's website, but I have to think Corpas gets the first shot unless Street has an amazing spring. The best thing for the franchise, however, might be to have Street close to start the season and perform well, thus enhancing his trade value. Corpas is a little better right now, IMO.
Taylor Buchholz is an excellent setup man who I think has the stuff to close if necessary. Alan Embree is a decent lefty.
Right hander Jhoulys Chacin and left hander Christian Friedrich should come along pretty quickly over the next season or two. They're both extremely talented, though Chacin has more upside to me. Casey Weathers may be the closer of the future - he's got great stuff but needs to refine his command.
OVERVIEW
This franchise isn't an a terrible place, they're just in what appears to be a transition year. Their only chance at really doing anything this season would be to have several young guys emerge along with Helton having a resurgent season. If the team doesn't think Gonzalez is ready to play in LF, I'd advise trying to find at-bats for Baker and Stewart.
The best news for '09? The Padres will keep the Rockies from even having a chance at finishing in last place. I do think the future is relatively bright in the Mile High city.
KW
Monday, February 16, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #23
Before I get started, just wanted to let you know that all my posts this week are originating from Cardinals Spring Training camp in Jupiter, FL. I'm down here covering the Cards for my real job at KMOX and loving every minute of it...
Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.
( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
23. Cincinnati Reds
You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.
Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.
They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.
LINEUP
According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce
Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.
The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.
As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.
PITCHING
According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:
1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings
Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.
The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.
CL. Francisco Cordero
In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.
David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.
As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.
OVERVIEW
The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.
KW
Back to work on the TBG 2009 Power Rankings.
( #'s 24-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
23. Cincinnati Reds
You know, I think the Reds have a shot at getting something positive done here in the not-too-distant future.
Getting out from under the Ken Griffey, Jr. and Adam Dunn contracts should do wonders for them, first of all, and they also have a pretty good crop of young players coming along both in the Majors and in the minors.
They're not a team that I see contending in '09 (too many question marks) but they're not that far away from giving the Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers a run for their money in the NL Central.
LINEUP
According to the Reds's official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ramon Hernandez
1B. Joey Votto
2B. Brandon Phillips
3B. Edwin Encarnacion
SS. Alex Gonzalez/Jeff Keppinger
LF. Chris Dickerson
CF. Wily Taveras
RF. Jay Bruce
Hernandez isn't a stud by any means but he's a decent hitting catcher who is an upgrade over what the Reds have been running out there behind the dish in recent years. Votto is a heck of a hitter, possessing power and patience. He's also a decent athlete who makes pretty good contact for a power guy. Phillips is a flat out stud - I mentioned that Ian Kinsler might be the best all-around 2B in the game during my write-up of the Rangers but Phillips is right there with him, maybe ahead. Great glove, outstanding pop, good speed - he's the whole package. Encarnacion has some power and is a good athlete but his play is too erratic. If I were the Reds I wouldn't have any trouble moving in another direction with regard to E.E. now that his salary is starting to climb. Gonzalez is an injury risk so it's hard to count on him. Even when healthy, he's a really good glove man with an erratic bat. To me, Keppinger is a utility infielder.
The outfield is much more athletic this season. Bruce is a budding star who is living up to some of that "next Larry Walker" billing he received in the minors. I'd love to have this guy on my team for the next 10 years. He's only going to get better, IMO. I'm not a big fan of Taveras because he's allergic to walks and has no pop, but he's a decent stopgap for a team looking to improve defensively. Dickerson is an interesting player. Has power and speed but may not be more than a platoon guy. Guess we'll see this season, but I think he's a decent sleeper. Norris Hopper, Jerry Hairston, Jr. (also a factor at SS) and Jonny Gomes could also factor into the OF. I wouldn't expect much out of any of them.
As far as prospects go, the Reds have quite a few talented bats on the way. SS Chris Valaika could wind up arriving on the scene this year - he's a good hitter who some see as more of a 2B than a SS. 1B Yonder Alonso, the team's 2008 1st round pick, will come fast. Not sure he'll be as good as Adrian Gonzalez but he's a similar type player. OF Drew Stubbs is a veritable toolbox - physically he can do it all - but he's still struggling to bring it all together. SS-3B-OF Todd Frazier is a good hitter looking for a position to play. There are more but the rest probably aren't going to be ready for another 1-3 seasons.
PITCHING
According to the Reds' official website, here is their projected rotation:
1. Aaron Harang
2. Edinson Volquez
3. Bronson Arroyo
4. Johnny Cueto
5. Michah Owings
Something seemed to be wrong with Harang last season but if he's healthy in '09 he should go back to being what he was prior to '08 - a workhorse who can be one of the better pitchers in the National League. Volquez is an amazing talent and it seems to me that he's going to get even better. He's one of the game's elite young starters with stuff and "pitchability." Arroyo was pretty good in the 2nd half last season, especially down the stretch, and if he can avoid the terrible first half he had in '08 the Reds should get off to a better start. He's a solid middle of the rotation starter. Cueto doesn't quite have the upside of Volquez, but he has an electric arm and he knows what he's doing on the mound. Owings figures to battle with prospect Homer Bailey for the 5th rotation in Spring Training. Owings has the edge in terms of experience and ability to throw strikes but Bailey has more talent. To be honest, I think Bailey is starting to look more and more like a late inning reliever than a starter.
The Reds have other pitchers capable of starting but it looks like only a couple of injuries would open the door for other candidates.
CL. Francisco Cordero
In Cordero the Reds have a proven finisher. I wouldn't count him amongst the league's top flight closers but he does fall somewhere in the second tier. I like his aggressiveness and confidence, to go along with plus stuff.
David Weathers, Jared Burton, Bill Bray and Arthur Rhodes form what could be a decent setup crew for Cordero. They're not fantastic but they're good enough to get the job done.
As far as prospects go, the Reds only seem to have one starter close to being Major League ready and that's Daryl Thompson. He's a flyball pitcher from what I've seen and read, which would be a bad thing in Cincinnati.
OVERVIEW
The Reds have some outstanding building blocks for the future of this franchise - Bruce, Phillips, Votto and Volquez are all outstanding talents. They're probably still 3-4 good players away from being able to contend in the NL Central but they'll be a tougher team to beat in '09 than they were in '08.
KW
Sunday, February 15, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #24
I've decided to remove the "early" part of the Power Rankings title because at the rate I'm going this won't be done "early" afterall.
Now, back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings...
( #'s 25-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
24. Texas Rangers
As usual, the Rangers have a pretty good looking everyday lineup and a questionable pitching staff. They've got some kids coming along here in the next year or two that could balance out the pitching end of the spectrum, but that's not likely going to help much in 2009.
As I said with the Orioles, however, this is an organization that appears to be in the beginning stages of righting the ship. They have some incredible, high-end offensive talent, a farm system that is improving and some bad pitching contracts that are getting closer to their expiration dates.
2009 could be a "stepping stone" year for this franchise and I'm very curious to see how some of their "situations" shake out.
LINEUP
According to the team's official website, here are the Rangers' projected starters:
C. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B. Chris Davis
2B. Ian Kinsler
3B. Michael Young
SS. Elvis Andrus
LF. David Murphy
CF. Josh Hamilton
RF. Nelson Cruz
DH. Hank Blalock
That is a lineup with a lot of offensive ability. If everyone's healthy this could be one of the five highest scoring teams in baseball, especially when you consider where they play their home games.
Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter behind the dish but with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez also in the mix you just never know. I think Salty has the highest overall upside of the three players but that's just me. Tegarden is better defender than Salty, but I like Salty's offense better. Ramirez may be a better pure hitter than Salty, but I like Salty's defense better. In short, Saltalamacchia is the best all-around catcher they have. I also think he's going to have a breakout season if they just stick with him from Opening Day through the end of the season. Teagarden and Ramirez would both make for good trade bait.
Davis is a masher at 1B and looks like a guy who will hit a lot of home runs for a long, long time. I'm a fan. Kinsler may be the game's best all-around 2B. He does it all and gives this team a distinct edge over others because of the offense they get from a position that doesn't always deliver production. Young accepting the move over to 3B was huge because it makes them better defensively. He's not a bad SS, it's just that Andrus is better at SS than Young and Young is more gifted defensively than Blalock or Davis. Plus, Young's a good bat. Andrus is the question mark in the infield but I think he'll be fine if they stick with him. His glove is a plus, he's got good speed and is a stolen base threat, plus I think he can develop some pop. Andrus looks like a future All-Star to me.
Hamilton is the best all-around player on the team and one of the 5-10 best all-around players in the game. I expect Hamilton to be an MVP candidate year-in and year-out moving forward, barring injury of course. He's a flat out stud. Murphy is a nice player in LF but I don't see a lot of upside there. He does a lot of things well, though, and is a very useful player. Cruz has all kinds of offensive potential but this is a make-or-break season for him. After mashing in Triple-A last year he carried that production to the Major League level at the end of the season. If he hits, he plays. If not, see ya later Nelson.
Marlon Byrd gives the Rangers and excellent 4th OF option. He can play all over the outfield, he's got a little pop and he runs well. The sleeper in the mix is Andruw Jones, invited to camp on a minor league deal. If he hits at all during Spring Training the Rangers will have to make room for him somehow. Jones picked the right spot to rejuvenate his offensive career - no place is more hitter friendly these days than Arlington. If Andruw has an impressive spring, I'd bet on him taking over in CF with Hamilton sliding over to RF and Murphy/Cruz forming a LF platoon. I wouldn't bet the house on Jones, though. His problems have all been in his head and that's something that's tough to break out of.
Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Arias, German Duran and Brandon Boggs are around as well. The one that is most interesting is Arias, who could wind up at SS if Andrus struggles.
Most of the Rangers' best offensive prospects were covered above and none of the rest figure to have any impact in the Majors this season. 1B Justin Smoak is a big-time hitter but he was just drafted in '08. OF Julio Borbon is a speed demon but I don't see how he fits in any way this season. OF Engel Beltre is 2-3 years off but he's a 5-tool talent who could be a star eventually.
PITCHERS
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy
This is where things start to turn the wrong way.
I think Millwood would be a decent 4th or 5th starter on a National League team but he's not lasting as deep into games as he used to and doesn't miss enough bats either. Padilla isn't awful but he's also more of a 4th/5th starter on a decent team because he's too erratic. He also happens to be vastly overpaid. To me, Feldman is just not a Major League starting pitcher. His strikeout to walk ratio stunk last season, he gives up too many hits and would be better off working out of the bullpen. Harrison has some ability and is probably capable of being a decent 4th/5th starter this season but he doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter. McCarthy intrigues me. He only made 5 starts for the Rangers last season but if he's healthy he could be another decent 3-4-5 starter. Not a high-end guy, though.
Jason Jennings (if healthy), Dustin Nippert and Kason Gabbard could also factor into the mix. I've always liked Nippert as a potential 3-4-5 starter and I think the team would be better off with him in the rotation and Feldman in the bullpen. Jennings has done some nice things in the past while pitching for the Rockies but his ability to stay healthy is a major question mark. If he is able to pitch, I suspect we'll see quite a bit of Jennings in the big leagues in '09.
CL. Frankie Francisco
Francisco was the Rangers' best reliever last season and it's interesting to see him listed ahead of last year's closer C.J. Wilson. I don't trust Francisco all that much, but he is tough to hit against and he strikes a lot of people out. While Wilson did convert 24 of 28 save chances last season, he also showed me that he's not a Major League closer. He allows to many hits and too many walks to be handling the 9th inning. If a 6.02 ERA doesn't tell the story I don't know what does. The fact that his ERA was 2 runs lower (4.50 compared to 6.55 vs. right handers) tells us something - he's a setup man.
Eddie Guardado joins those two and he's probably the best fallback option to close if Francisco struggles. Nobody else in the pen gets me very excited to be honest. Josh Rupe, Luis Mendoza, Warner Madrigal and Derrick Turnbow are talented pitchers but I don't trust any of them.
As far as pitching prospects go, that's where the Rangers really have some horses. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are both potential #1 starters. Holland is a lefty that can reach the upper 90's with his fastball, Feliz is a righty than can do the same. I think it's a safe bet that we'll see both in a Rangers uniform sometime in '09 and possibly for good come '10. Martin Perez, Michael Main and Blake Beavan should be watched as well.
OVERVIEW
The Rangers lack of front-end starting pitchers and the lack of many proven commodities in the bullpen are the factors holding this team back. Their everyday lineup is good enough to be a contender but they need kids like Feliz and Holland to emerge, plus they need someone to establish themselves as a closer.
Team President Nolan Ryan seems to have things headed in the right direction. Right now they just have to hope that the pitching prospects are as good as advertised. If so, the Rangers could contend in the West in 2010.
KW
Now, back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings...
( #'s 25-30 can be found in the archive)
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
24. Texas Rangers
As usual, the Rangers have a pretty good looking everyday lineup and a questionable pitching staff. They've got some kids coming along here in the next year or two that could balance out the pitching end of the spectrum, but that's not likely going to help much in 2009.
As I said with the Orioles, however, this is an organization that appears to be in the beginning stages of righting the ship. They have some incredible, high-end offensive talent, a farm system that is improving and some bad pitching contracts that are getting closer to their expiration dates.
2009 could be a "stepping stone" year for this franchise and I'm very curious to see how some of their "situations" shake out.
LINEUP
According to the team's official website, here are the Rangers' projected starters:
C. Jarrod Saltalamacchia
1B. Chris Davis
2B. Ian Kinsler
3B. Michael Young
SS. Elvis Andrus
LF. David Murphy
CF. Josh Hamilton
RF. Nelson Cruz
DH. Hank Blalock
That is a lineup with a lot of offensive ability. If everyone's healthy this could be one of the five highest scoring teams in baseball, especially when you consider where they play their home games.
Saltalamacchia is listed as the starter behind the dish but with Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez also in the mix you just never know. I think Salty has the highest overall upside of the three players but that's just me. Tegarden is better defender than Salty, but I like Salty's offense better. Ramirez may be a better pure hitter than Salty, but I like Salty's defense better. In short, Saltalamacchia is the best all-around catcher they have. I also think he's going to have a breakout season if they just stick with him from Opening Day through the end of the season. Teagarden and Ramirez would both make for good trade bait.
Davis is a masher at 1B and looks like a guy who will hit a lot of home runs for a long, long time. I'm a fan. Kinsler may be the game's best all-around 2B. He does it all and gives this team a distinct edge over others because of the offense they get from a position that doesn't always deliver production. Young accepting the move over to 3B was huge because it makes them better defensively. He's not a bad SS, it's just that Andrus is better at SS than Young and Young is more gifted defensively than Blalock or Davis. Plus, Young's a good bat. Andrus is the question mark in the infield but I think he'll be fine if they stick with him. His glove is a plus, he's got good speed and is a stolen base threat, plus I think he can develop some pop. Andrus looks like a future All-Star to me.
Hamilton is the best all-around player on the team and one of the 5-10 best all-around players in the game. I expect Hamilton to be an MVP candidate year-in and year-out moving forward, barring injury of course. He's a flat out stud. Murphy is a nice player in LF but I don't see a lot of upside there. He does a lot of things well, though, and is a very useful player. Cruz has all kinds of offensive potential but this is a make-or-break season for him. After mashing in Triple-A last year he carried that production to the Major League level at the end of the season. If he hits, he plays. If not, see ya later Nelson.
Marlon Byrd gives the Rangers and excellent 4th OF option. He can play all over the outfield, he's got a little pop and he runs well. The sleeper in the mix is Andruw Jones, invited to camp on a minor league deal. If he hits at all during Spring Training the Rangers will have to make room for him somehow. Jones picked the right spot to rejuvenate his offensive career - no place is more hitter friendly these days than Arlington. If Andruw has an impressive spring, I'd bet on him taking over in CF with Hamilton sliding over to RF and Murphy/Cruz forming a LF platoon. I wouldn't bet the house on Jones, though. His problems have all been in his head and that's something that's tough to break out of.
Frank Catalanotto, Joaquin Arias, German Duran and Brandon Boggs are around as well. The one that is most interesting is Arias, who could wind up at SS if Andrus struggles.
Most of the Rangers' best offensive prospects were covered above and none of the rest figure to have any impact in the Majors this season. 1B Justin Smoak is a big-time hitter but he was just drafted in '08. OF Julio Borbon is a speed demon but I don't see how he fits in any way this season. OF Engel Beltre is 2-3 years off but he's a 5-tool talent who could be a star eventually.
PITCHERS
1. Kevin Millwood
2. Vicente Padilla
3. Scott Feldman
4. Matt Harrison
5. Brandon McCarthy
This is where things start to turn the wrong way.
I think Millwood would be a decent 4th or 5th starter on a National League team but he's not lasting as deep into games as he used to and doesn't miss enough bats either. Padilla isn't awful but he's also more of a 4th/5th starter on a decent team because he's too erratic. He also happens to be vastly overpaid. To me, Feldman is just not a Major League starting pitcher. His strikeout to walk ratio stunk last season, he gives up too many hits and would be better off working out of the bullpen. Harrison has some ability and is probably capable of being a decent 4th/5th starter this season but he doesn't project as a top of the rotation starter. McCarthy intrigues me. He only made 5 starts for the Rangers last season but if he's healthy he could be another decent 3-4-5 starter. Not a high-end guy, though.
Jason Jennings (if healthy), Dustin Nippert and Kason Gabbard could also factor into the mix. I've always liked Nippert as a potential 3-4-5 starter and I think the team would be better off with him in the rotation and Feldman in the bullpen. Jennings has done some nice things in the past while pitching for the Rockies but his ability to stay healthy is a major question mark. If he is able to pitch, I suspect we'll see quite a bit of Jennings in the big leagues in '09.
CL. Frankie Francisco
Francisco was the Rangers' best reliever last season and it's interesting to see him listed ahead of last year's closer C.J. Wilson. I don't trust Francisco all that much, but he is tough to hit against and he strikes a lot of people out. While Wilson did convert 24 of 28 save chances last season, he also showed me that he's not a Major League closer. He allows to many hits and too many walks to be handling the 9th inning. If a 6.02 ERA doesn't tell the story I don't know what does. The fact that his ERA was 2 runs lower (4.50 compared to 6.55 vs. right handers) tells us something - he's a setup man.
Eddie Guardado joins those two and he's probably the best fallback option to close if Francisco struggles. Nobody else in the pen gets me very excited to be honest. Josh Rupe, Luis Mendoza, Warner Madrigal and Derrick Turnbow are talented pitchers but I don't trust any of them.
As far as pitching prospects go, that's where the Rangers really have some horses. Derek Holland and Neftali Feliz are both potential #1 starters. Holland is a lefty that can reach the upper 90's with his fastball, Feliz is a righty than can do the same. I think it's a safe bet that we'll see both in a Rangers uniform sometime in '09 and possibly for good come '10. Martin Perez, Michael Main and Blake Beavan should be watched as well.
OVERVIEW
The Rangers lack of front-end starting pitchers and the lack of many proven commodities in the bullpen are the factors holding this team back. Their everyday lineup is good enough to be a contender but they need kids like Feliz and Holland to emerge, plus they need someone to establish themselves as a closer.
Team President Nolan Ryan seems to have things headed in the right direction. Right now they just have to hope that the pitching prospects are as good as advertised. If so, the Rangers could contend in the West in 2010.
KW
Thursday, February 12, 2009
Audio Blog - Ranting on media "roid rage"
Here's a short segment from my radio show (Sports Open Line) on KMOX in St. Louis from this week.
This is a rant about baseball writers on their soap boxes about how "guys like A-Rod" are ruining baseball history.
My take?
Well, let's just say my opinion is a little different than that of the fellas riding on White Horses...
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3458034
I'll be in Jupiter, FL covering Cardinals Spring Training from M-F of next week and will be chiming in w/ more audio then as well...
KW
This is a rant about baseball writers on their soap boxes about how "guys like A-Rod" are ruining baseball history.
My take?
Well, let's just say my opinion is a little different than that of the fellas riding on White Horses...
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3458034
I'll be in Jupiter, FL covering Cardinals Spring Training from M-F of next week and will be chiming in w/ more audio then as well...
KW
Everyone to blame for MLB steroid mess
"I never heard about it."
That's what Bud Selig had to say back in February, 2005 about steroid use in baseball in the 90's and early 00's.
That's right, the man in charge of a professional sports league had no idea what was going on under his nose. He was also still the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers during that time and is a self-proclaimed baseball fanatic. Loves the game, watches all the time.
And he didn't know anything? He never got word from his scouts, his General Manager or anyone else that something funny was going on around the game?
You know what's really scary?
I believe him.
That's because NOBODY talked about steroid use publicly. The Commissioner didn't. The owners didn't. The General Managers didn't. The coaches and managers didn't. The "clean" players didn't. Heck, even retired coaches, managers, players, scouts and front office executives kept the mouths shut.
They're all guilty.
The weight of this scandal is not solely on the shoulders of home runs hitters like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez.
What about all the cheating starting pitchers who recovered better from start to start, had their "A-game" more often and had the stamina to maintain a high level of performance deeper into games?
What about all the cheating relievers who recovered faster from day to day, had their "A-game" more often and had that extra 2-3 MPH they needed to finish a batter off late in a game?
What about all the smaller, speedy defensive types who were able to stay healthier longer, keep their legs fresher and perhaps chase down a handful of baseballs they otherwise wouldn't have gotten to?
The fact of the matter is that the ENTIRE GAME was compromised as was anyone who was a part of the game in any way, shape or form. That includes people like me who work in the media, by the way.
I'm tired of late-coming hypocrites like Roy Oswalt blasting A-Rod from afar while he had cheaters in his own clubhouse all this time. Where is his anger for them? Where was this bile when it comes to Roger Clemens?
Is it only wrong if some guy you don't like gets caught?
Everyone's to blame and to go deeper than that is foolishness. Leadership failed, the union failed and the media failed.
Seems pretty simple to me.
Today Selig told the Associated Press that A-Rod had "shamed the game."
Yes he did.
But he had a lot of help from other cheaters, co-conspirators and enablers.
You fit in there somewhere, Mr. Commissioner.
KW
That's what Bud Selig had to say back in February, 2005 about steroid use in baseball in the 90's and early 00's.
That's right, the man in charge of a professional sports league had no idea what was going on under his nose. He was also still the owner of the Milwaukee Brewers during that time and is a self-proclaimed baseball fanatic. Loves the game, watches all the time.
And he didn't know anything? He never got word from his scouts, his General Manager or anyone else that something funny was going on around the game?
You know what's really scary?
I believe him.
That's because NOBODY talked about steroid use publicly. The Commissioner didn't. The owners didn't. The General Managers didn't. The coaches and managers didn't. The "clean" players didn't. Heck, even retired coaches, managers, players, scouts and front office executives kept the mouths shut.
They're all guilty.
The weight of this scandal is not solely on the shoulders of home runs hitters like Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Alex Rodriguez.
What about all the cheating starting pitchers who recovered better from start to start, had their "A-game" more often and had the stamina to maintain a high level of performance deeper into games?
What about all the cheating relievers who recovered faster from day to day, had their "A-game" more often and had that extra 2-3 MPH they needed to finish a batter off late in a game?
What about all the smaller, speedy defensive types who were able to stay healthier longer, keep their legs fresher and perhaps chase down a handful of baseballs they otherwise wouldn't have gotten to?
The fact of the matter is that the ENTIRE GAME was compromised as was anyone who was a part of the game in any way, shape or form. That includes people like me who work in the media, by the way.
I'm tired of late-coming hypocrites like Roy Oswalt blasting A-Rod from afar while he had cheaters in his own clubhouse all this time. Where is his anger for them? Where was this bile when it comes to Roger Clemens?
Is it only wrong if some guy you don't like gets caught?
Everyone's to blame and to go deeper than that is foolishness. Leadership failed, the union failed and the media failed.
Seems pretty simple to me.
Today Selig told the Associated Press that A-Rod had "shamed the game."
Yes he did.
But he had a lot of help from other cheaters, co-conspirators and enablers.
You fit in there somewhere, Mr. Commissioner.
KW
Wednesday, February 11, 2009
Thinking Out Loud - Feb. 11, 2009
Adam Dunn to the Nationals
According to the reports he's getting a 2-year deal and the team's website is reporting that Dunn will take over as their everyday first baseman, leaving Nick Johnson as a candidate to be traded or released.
I like this move for the Nationals for a number of reasons:
1. He's automatically their biggest HR threat
2. He gets on base a ton, which will create some RBI opportunities for the guys behind him
3. He's a "name" player that should get the Nats some much desired positive ink
4. Even with his imperfections, Dunn is a known commodity on team full of "ifs" and "maybes"
They say he'll hit 4th, which is fine (though a case could be made he'd be better off in front of Zimmerman), and I suspect he'll put up numbers like he always does.
Dunn's not the best ballplayer in the world but he has two tremendous offensive skills that set him apart from most other ballplayers...
Bobby Abreu to the Angels
GREAT move. G-R-E-A-T.
Abreu is a pretty nice upgrade over Garret Anderson and he comes at a reasonable price.
His power numbers have declined a bit the past three seasons but then again so had Anderson's. The biggest differences between Abreu and Anderson are on-base percentage and on the base paths.
Abreu has a .405 career OBP and has never walked fewer than 73 times in a full Major League season. By comparison, Anderson has a .327 career OBP and has never walked more than 38 times in a big league season.
Abreu has seven 100-RBI seasons (including six in a row entering 2009) and has eleven straight seasons with at least 19 SB's (20+ in each of the last ten seasons. By comparison, Anderson has had just four 100-RBI seasons and has reached double digits in steals only twice (the last time coming in 2001).
Abreu, while not the defender he once was, is clearly a better defensive player than Anderson as well.
This is a big upgrade for the Angels - the best in the West just got better.
Other teams seeking OF help
I guess the Dodgers don't have a good fallback option for Manny now that Dunn and Abreu are gone. Maybe this pushes the two sides toward a deal. Without Manny, the Dodgers lineup is looking awfully lean...
Guess the Braves have to work a trade now.
Cards might have some OF depth to move but they'll only do it for a starting 2B like Kelly Johnson or some serious pitching help (Mike Gonzalez?). Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton and Joe Mather are all contending for OF spots in STL. Ankiel or Ludwick would be most attractive to the Braves, I assume.
Been rumors about those two getting together before...
Blue Jays sign Kevin Millar
M'kay, not sure I see how that makes much of a difference for the Jays.
Millar is okay but he's not exactly going to send them over the top.
According to the reports he's getting a 2-year deal and the team's website is reporting that Dunn will take over as their everyday first baseman, leaving Nick Johnson as a candidate to be traded or released.
I like this move for the Nationals for a number of reasons:
1. He's automatically their biggest HR threat
2. He gets on base a ton, which will create some RBI opportunities for the guys behind him
3. He's a "name" player that should get the Nats some much desired positive ink
4. Even with his imperfections, Dunn is a known commodity on team full of "ifs" and "maybes"
They say he'll hit 4th, which is fine (though a case could be made he'd be better off in front of Zimmerman), and I suspect he'll put up numbers like he always does.
Dunn's not the best ballplayer in the world but he has two tremendous offensive skills that set him apart from most other ballplayers...
Bobby Abreu to the Angels
GREAT move. G-R-E-A-T.
Abreu is a pretty nice upgrade over Garret Anderson and he comes at a reasonable price.
His power numbers have declined a bit the past three seasons but then again so had Anderson's. The biggest differences between Abreu and Anderson are on-base percentage and on the base paths.
Abreu has a .405 career OBP and has never walked fewer than 73 times in a full Major League season. By comparison, Anderson has a .327 career OBP and has never walked more than 38 times in a big league season.
Abreu has seven 100-RBI seasons (including six in a row entering 2009) and has eleven straight seasons with at least 19 SB's (20+ in each of the last ten seasons. By comparison, Anderson has had just four 100-RBI seasons and has reached double digits in steals only twice (the last time coming in 2001).
Abreu, while not the defender he once was, is clearly a better defensive player than Anderson as well.
This is a big upgrade for the Angels - the best in the West just got better.
Other teams seeking OF help
I guess the Dodgers don't have a good fallback option for Manny now that Dunn and Abreu are gone. Maybe this pushes the two sides toward a deal. Without Manny, the Dodgers lineup is looking awfully lean...
Guess the Braves have to work a trade now.
Cards might have some OF depth to move but they'll only do it for a starting 2B like Kelly Johnson or some serious pitching help (Mike Gonzalez?). Rick Ankiel, Ryan Ludwick, Skip Schumaker, Colby Rasmus, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton and Joe Mather are all contending for OF spots in STL. Ankiel or Ludwick would be most attractive to the Braves, I assume.
Been rumors about those two getting together before...
Blue Jays sign Kevin Millar
M'kay, not sure I see how that makes much of a difference for the Jays.
Millar is okay but he's not exactly going to send them over the top.
Tuesday, February 10, 2009
2009 Power Rankings #25
Back to the TBG 2009 Power Rankings - #'s 26-30 can be found in the Blog Archive, FYI...
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
25. Baltimore Orioles
This is a team in transition that seems to finally be turning the corner a bit after spending too many years chasing it's own tail.
The pitching isn't there at the moment but I like the direction they went in the outfield - young and athletic - and I think a couple of their pitching prospects are going to be ready to contribute soon.
Peter Angelos has spent good money after bad for a lot of years now, trying in vain to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. Apparently the team is starting to understand that's not the way to go. The O's aren't some "feel sorry for me" small market club, they have the ability to generate cash and they have a rabid fan base, but for years they've just gone about things the wrong way. Hiring Andy MacPhail was the best thing this team has done for a long time.
I don't see the O's being this far down in the Power Rankings in a year or two, that's for sure.
LINEUP
According to the Orioles' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters
1B. Aubrey Huff
2B. Brian Roberts
3B. Melvin Mora
SS. Cesar Izturis
LF. Felix Pie
CF. Adam Jones
RF. Nick Markakis
DH. Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton
First of all, it would be fantastic for this team if Matt Wieters wins a spot on the Major League roster this season. He is an amazing talent and has a chance to be an All-Star caliber catcher for many years to come. I love Wieters' game and sincerely hope Zaun serves as a mentor/backup to him rather than as the primary starter. The 6'5" switch-hitter with power from both sides has an offensive game not seen in many catchers.
Aside from the 2007 season, Aubrey Huff has been an excellent Major League hitter. He averages 25 HR and 87 RBI per season over the last 7 years and he'll take a walk as well. Roberts is the straw that stirs the drink for the O's - he's an excellent leadoff man/spark plug. The team does have a tough decision to make on him going forward though. Do you give him big bucks in his 30's to stick around as a veteran to lead the kids or do you move him for more kids? I'd lean toward keeping him. Melvin Mora isn't terrible but he is very streaky, which would make him expendable in my book. Izturis is all glove, no bat. The O's knew that and only signed him to help out the pitching staff.
Keep in mind that the team has also signed Ty Wigginton. He can play 1B-2B-3B-LF-DH for the O's, so I expect him to get a lot of at-bats as an "everyday utility man." He's no stud but I think he's a bigger asset than Kevin Millar was last year.
In the outfield, the O's plan is for youth to be served. I think the Cubs gave up way too early on Pie and if the O's are patient they will be rewarded for it. Pie has great speed and a little pop, plus he's an outstanding defender. Jones is player I expect to take a step forward in '09. His offensive numbers were less than stellar last season but I think he'll double his home run total. Markakis is an outstanding young player who should be an All-Star on a pretty regular basis going forward. He does it all and he does it all well. In fact, I think Markakis is a franchise player.
Luke Scott will probably be the DH against right handers, something he should be good at, with Wigginton probably sliding in there against lefties. Scott has power but he's streaky and didn't hit lefties at all last season. Luis Montanez has an intriguing bat as a bit of a late bloomer so we'll see if he factors into the mix during Spring Training.
I liked the addition of Ryan Freel as well. He can play the infield and the outfield, plus he brings both speed and energy to the lineup whenever he's in there. Outstanding bench player.
Aside from Wieters, only one other Orioles' prospect should be knocking on the big league door this season. OF Nolan Reimold appears to have the physical tools to be a productive hitter but the 6'4" right handed hitter was left sitting at Double-A all last season despite being 24 and having a solid season. A strong start at Triple-A combined with a slow start in the big leagues for Pie could earn Reimold an opportunity to move up.
PITCHING
Once again referring to the Orioles' official website, here's how the rotation is shaping up:
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Mark Hendrickson
3. Koji Uehara
4. Rich Hill
5. Chris Waters
Ugh. Only Guthrie is a proven big league starter in that group. I like him a lot and think he's got a long career ahead of him as a good Major League starter but it doesn't look like he's going to get much help to start '09.
Hendrickson doesn't belong anywhere near a big league mound, at least not as a starter. Why anyone would give him a shot at a rotation spot is beyond me - he's had one decent season in the Majors (2006) and 5 bad ones. I have no clue what Uehara will be nor does anyone else. He may be a useful big league starter and he may be a bust. I'd bet he's a decent 4th/5th starter. Hill is very talented and I like the idea of grabbing him off the Cubs' scrap heap. He's a strikeout guy who can be a 12-15 game winner if he just throws more strikes. Waters is just "filler" to me - a 28 year-old with just 64 2/3 mediocre Major League innings under his belt.
Matt Albers, Danys Baez and Radhames Liz could also be a part of the mix early in the season. Albers was decent as a reliever last year and has a good arm - I'd choose him over Hendrickson or Waters. Baez has a good arm as well and the team owes him a fair amount of money, so maybe they'll find a way to make it for him in the rotation. Liz has a fantastic arm, reaching the upper-90's, but his control is bad and his secondary pitches aren't any better. Liz looks like a reliever to me. Troy Patton would be in the mix but he's coming off a shoulder injury and that scares me.
Long term, however, the picture is much brighter. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all potential frontline starters at the Major League level and they're coming on fast. Tillman and Matusz could both be factors in '09, in fact I think they're better right now than at least 2/5 of the projected rotation. Arrieta isn't far off those two either.
CL. George Sherrill
Let me say this right up front - George Sherrill is not a Major League closer. He's a quality reliever, don't get me wrong, but he shouldn't be closing for a big league club. Sure, he had 31 saves last season but there's a reason he was getting his first chance to close at the age of 31. Sooner or later he'll be replaced.
If he's healthy, Chris Ray would be the logical choice to move back into the role he once had. Ray had Tommy John surgery and missed all of the '08 season but guys usually come back from TJ surgeru pretty well and he's just got better closer's stuff than Sherrill.
Eventually the job may belong to 6'9" Kam Mickolio, who had a nice season in the minors last year, but that doesn't seem likely for the start of 2009.
OVERVIEW
I haven't said these words in a long, long time but I think the O's are finally on the right track.
Markakis and Wieters are the offensive cornerstones of this franchise and guys like Guthrie, Tillman and Matusz should be the same in the rotation before much longer.
If the O's really want to go all the way they'll trade Mora and/or Roberts before the end of the '09 season and complete their re-tooling process. Even Huff could be spared if he brings the right player(s) in return.
By 2010 these guys could be a factor again, but not in '09.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
25. Baltimore Orioles
This is a team in transition that seems to finally be turning the corner a bit after spending too many years chasing it's own tail.
The pitching isn't there at the moment but I like the direction they went in the outfield - young and athletic - and I think a couple of their pitching prospects are going to be ready to contribute soon.
Peter Angelos has spent good money after bad for a lot of years now, trying in vain to keep up with the Yankees and Red Sox. Apparently the team is starting to understand that's not the way to go. The O's aren't some "feel sorry for me" small market club, they have the ability to generate cash and they have a rabid fan base, but for years they've just gone about things the wrong way. Hiring Andy MacPhail was the best thing this team has done for a long time.
I don't see the O's being this far down in the Power Rankings in a year or two, that's for sure.
LINEUP
According to the Orioles' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Greg Zaun/Matt Wieters
1B. Aubrey Huff
2B. Brian Roberts
3B. Melvin Mora
SS. Cesar Izturis
LF. Felix Pie
CF. Adam Jones
RF. Nick Markakis
DH. Luke Scott/Ty Wigginton
First of all, it would be fantastic for this team if Matt Wieters wins a spot on the Major League roster this season. He is an amazing talent and has a chance to be an All-Star caliber catcher for many years to come. I love Wieters' game and sincerely hope Zaun serves as a mentor/backup to him rather than as the primary starter. The 6'5" switch-hitter with power from both sides has an offensive game not seen in many catchers.
Aside from the 2007 season, Aubrey Huff has been an excellent Major League hitter. He averages 25 HR and 87 RBI per season over the last 7 years and he'll take a walk as well. Roberts is the straw that stirs the drink for the O's - he's an excellent leadoff man/spark plug. The team does have a tough decision to make on him going forward though. Do you give him big bucks in his 30's to stick around as a veteran to lead the kids or do you move him for more kids? I'd lean toward keeping him. Melvin Mora isn't terrible but he is very streaky, which would make him expendable in my book. Izturis is all glove, no bat. The O's knew that and only signed him to help out the pitching staff.
Keep in mind that the team has also signed Ty Wigginton. He can play 1B-2B-3B-LF-DH for the O's, so I expect him to get a lot of at-bats as an "everyday utility man." He's no stud but I think he's a bigger asset than Kevin Millar was last year.
In the outfield, the O's plan is for youth to be served. I think the Cubs gave up way too early on Pie and if the O's are patient they will be rewarded for it. Pie has great speed and a little pop, plus he's an outstanding defender. Jones is player I expect to take a step forward in '09. His offensive numbers were less than stellar last season but I think he'll double his home run total. Markakis is an outstanding young player who should be an All-Star on a pretty regular basis going forward. He does it all and he does it all well. In fact, I think Markakis is a franchise player.
Luke Scott will probably be the DH against right handers, something he should be good at, with Wigginton probably sliding in there against lefties. Scott has power but he's streaky and didn't hit lefties at all last season. Luis Montanez has an intriguing bat as a bit of a late bloomer so we'll see if he factors into the mix during Spring Training.
I liked the addition of Ryan Freel as well. He can play the infield and the outfield, plus he brings both speed and energy to the lineup whenever he's in there. Outstanding bench player.
Aside from Wieters, only one other Orioles' prospect should be knocking on the big league door this season. OF Nolan Reimold appears to have the physical tools to be a productive hitter but the 6'4" right handed hitter was left sitting at Double-A all last season despite being 24 and having a solid season. A strong start at Triple-A combined with a slow start in the big leagues for Pie could earn Reimold an opportunity to move up.
PITCHING
Once again referring to the Orioles' official website, here's how the rotation is shaping up:
1. Jeremy Guthrie
2. Mark Hendrickson
3. Koji Uehara
4. Rich Hill
5. Chris Waters
Ugh. Only Guthrie is a proven big league starter in that group. I like him a lot and think he's got a long career ahead of him as a good Major League starter but it doesn't look like he's going to get much help to start '09.
Hendrickson doesn't belong anywhere near a big league mound, at least not as a starter. Why anyone would give him a shot at a rotation spot is beyond me - he's had one decent season in the Majors (2006) and 5 bad ones. I have no clue what Uehara will be nor does anyone else. He may be a useful big league starter and he may be a bust. I'd bet he's a decent 4th/5th starter. Hill is very talented and I like the idea of grabbing him off the Cubs' scrap heap. He's a strikeout guy who can be a 12-15 game winner if he just throws more strikes. Waters is just "filler" to me - a 28 year-old with just 64 2/3 mediocre Major League innings under his belt.
Matt Albers, Danys Baez and Radhames Liz could also be a part of the mix early in the season. Albers was decent as a reliever last year and has a good arm - I'd choose him over Hendrickson or Waters. Baez has a good arm as well and the team owes him a fair amount of money, so maybe they'll find a way to make it for him in the rotation. Liz has a fantastic arm, reaching the upper-90's, but his control is bad and his secondary pitches aren't any better. Liz looks like a reliever to me. Troy Patton would be in the mix but he's coming off a shoulder injury and that scares me.
Long term, however, the picture is much brighter. Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz and Jake Arrieta are all potential frontline starters at the Major League level and they're coming on fast. Tillman and Matusz could both be factors in '09, in fact I think they're better right now than at least 2/5 of the projected rotation. Arrieta isn't far off those two either.
CL. George Sherrill
Let me say this right up front - George Sherrill is not a Major League closer. He's a quality reliever, don't get me wrong, but he shouldn't be closing for a big league club. Sure, he had 31 saves last season but there's a reason he was getting his first chance to close at the age of 31. Sooner or later he'll be replaced.
If he's healthy, Chris Ray would be the logical choice to move back into the role he once had. Ray had Tommy John surgery and missed all of the '08 season but guys usually come back from TJ surgeru pretty well and he's just got better closer's stuff than Sherrill.
Eventually the job may belong to 6'9" Kam Mickolio, who had a nice season in the minors last year, but that doesn't seem likely for the start of 2009.
OVERVIEW
I haven't said these words in a long, long time but I think the O's are finally on the right track.
Markakis and Wieters are the offensive cornerstones of this franchise and guys like Guthrie, Tillman and Matusz should be the same in the rotation before much longer.
If the O's really want to go all the way they'll trade Mora and/or Roberts before the end of the '09 season and complete their re-tooling process. Even Huff could be spared if he brings the right player(s) in return.
By 2010 these guys could be a factor again, but not in '09.
KW
Monday, February 9, 2009
A-Rod makes the right call
He's not going to be spared much criticism but Alex Rodriguez did the right thing by admitting his past steroid use in an interview with ESPN's Peter Gammons today.
Nothing he can say or do will erase the memory of this but by admitting to a mistake, getting into the details regarding when and why he did it, he's going to get ahead of the story.
Instead of having people constantly hounding him for answers, now all he has to deal with is the anger sure to be leveled at him by baseball fans across the country. A-Rod wasn't exactly the most popular guy around before this so it's not like he was going to be greeted with enthusiasm anyway.
His daily routine will now be relatively unchanged.
I'm actually a bit surprised that he did the right thing here but maybe he learned from the mistakes made by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. If you deny-deny-deny you're only going to encourage people to take you on.
You know what's strange? I actually believe his story.
He told Peter Gammons that he took steroids beginning when he arrived in Texas, fresh off signing the richest contract in baseball history. He says the pressure to live up to expectations pushed him toward the 'roids.
It's not a valid excuse but the explanation does fit his personality.
If you ask me, A-Rod has some self esteem issues and he always needs to be "perfect."
You can see that in his appearance, his personal life (dumping his gorgeous wife for Madonna? dope), his manner of speaking and in his game.
Believing his explanation is not the same as excusing actions, by the way.
He deserves whatever consequences there are for this whole debacle.
It's his fault afterall.
KW
Nothing he can say or do will erase the memory of this but by admitting to a mistake, getting into the details regarding when and why he did it, he's going to get ahead of the story.
Instead of having people constantly hounding him for answers, now all he has to deal with is the anger sure to be leveled at him by baseball fans across the country. A-Rod wasn't exactly the most popular guy around before this so it's not like he was going to be greeted with enthusiasm anyway.
His daily routine will now be relatively unchanged.
I'm actually a bit surprised that he did the right thing here but maybe he learned from the mistakes made by Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. If you deny-deny-deny you're only going to encourage people to take you on.
You know what's strange? I actually believe his story.
He told Peter Gammons that he took steroids beginning when he arrived in Texas, fresh off signing the richest contract in baseball history. He says the pressure to live up to expectations pushed him toward the 'roids.
It's not a valid excuse but the explanation does fit his personality.
If you ask me, A-Rod has some self esteem issues and he always needs to be "perfect."
You can see that in his appearance, his personal life (dumping his gorgeous wife for Madonna? dope), his manner of speaking and in his game.
Believing his explanation is not the same as excusing actions, by the way.
He deserves whatever consequences there are for this whole debacle.
It's his fault afterall.
KW
Saturday, February 7, 2009
A-Rod & 'Roids - 3B not the only "bad guy" here
First of all I want to make one thing perfectly clear:
Assuming this story about A-Rod's positive steroids test is true, he's an idiot who deserves every ounce of scrutiny and/or criticism he will receive. He deserves every last line of type, every bile-filled epithet from fans and every bit of the doubt that is certain to come his way.
There's another side of this story that I'd like to touch on, however.
The leak.
These tests were meant to be confidental and non-punitive per the agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLPBA. Now, some of these tests were looked at because of the BALCO trial and I presume the sources for this latest story are from the U.S. Attorney's office.
Maybe that's wrong on my part but neither the union nor MLB want to see a guy like A-Rod "outed" so I think I'm pretty safe in assuming the leak is coming from someone prosecuting the Bonds and/or BALCO cases.
Keep in mind that these records are supposed SEALED UNDER COURT ORDER, meaning that it is illegal to disclose the contents of said records.
In other words, somebody broke the law just to throw A-Rod under the bus.
Maybe Rodriguez deserves to be dashed under a Greyhound but that doesn't change the fact that someone leaked sealed information to reporters from Sports Illustrated.
The reporters aren't to blame, nor do I believe they're doing anything wrong in reporting what they've been told.
I do have a problem, however, with government officials leaking sealed information for the sole purpose of providing someone with a juicy story.
If you're leaking sealed/confidential information to uncover corporate fraud, government waste or any other activity that could harm the general public in any way, shape or form then I'm all for it.
I'm not okay with it when all you're trying to do is push a juicy story about a star athlete.
Even if that athlete deserves to have his name dragged through the mud.
KW
Assuming this story about A-Rod's positive steroids test is true, he's an idiot who deserves every ounce of scrutiny and/or criticism he will receive. He deserves every last line of type, every bile-filled epithet from fans and every bit of the doubt that is certain to come his way.
There's another side of this story that I'd like to touch on, however.
The leak.
These tests were meant to be confidental and non-punitive per the agreement between Major League Baseball and the MLPBA. Now, some of these tests were looked at because of the BALCO trial and I presume the sources for this latest story are from the U.S. Attorney's office.
Maybe that's wrong on my part but neither the union nor MLB want to see a guy like A-Rod "outed" so I think I'm pretty safe in assuming the leak is coming from someone prosecuting the Bonds and/or BALCO cases.
Keep in mind that these records are supposed SEALED UNDER COURT ORDER, meaning that it is illegal to disclose the contents of said records.
In other words, somebody broke the law just to throw A-Rod under the bus.
Maybe Rodriguez deserves to be dashed under a Greyhound but that doesn't change the fact that someone leaked sealed information to reporters from Sports Illustrated.
The reporters aren't to blame, nor do I believe they're doing anything wrong in reporting what they've been told.
I do have a problem, however, with government officials leaking sealed information for the sole purpose of providing someone with a juicy story.
If you're leaking sealed/confidential information to uncover corporate fraud, government waste or any other activity that could harm the general public in any way, shape or form then I'm all for it.
I'm not okay with it when all you're trying to do is push a juicy story about a star athlete.
Even if that athlete deserves to have his name dragged through the mud.
KW
Thursday, February 5, 2009
Oh Sheets
No wonder Ben Sheets hasn't signed with the Rangers yet...
MLB.com is reporting that Sheets has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and might need surgery.
This isn't some minor thing, a torn flexor can mean a lot of time on the disabled list and that's the last thing Sheets needs at this point.
This presents an interesting dilemma for Sheets and for any team that was/is interested in signing him: what do you do?
There would appear to be two choices:
1) Sheets sits out until he's healthy and then signs a contract
2) Sheets finds a team willing to sign him to 2-year deal with the first year basically guaranteeing nothing and the second year having a low base salary with a huge incentive package based on innings pitched and/or starts.
I'd take a shot on Sheets under that 2nd scenario as long as I wasn't giving up a ton of money. Maybe $1 million for '09 to allow him to rehab in my team's system (maybe a bonus or two if he's on the playoff roster - assuming the team reaches the playoffs) and then a $3 million base for '10 w/ incentives that could bring his earnings up to $12-14 million.
Too bad for Sheets. He's a stud who could really help a team at the front end of the rotation.
UPDATE: Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated is now reporting that Sheets will have surgery and that Sheets hopes to return in July or August. My thoughts on Sheets remain the same.
KW
MLB.com is reporting that Sheets has a torn flexor tendon in his elbow and might need surgery.
This isn't some minor thing, a torn flexor can mean a lot of time on the disabled list and that's the last thing Sheets needs at this point.
This presents an interesting dilemma for Sheets and for any team that was/is interested in signing him: what do you do?
There would appear to be two choices:
1) Sheets sits out until he's healthy and then signs a contract
2) Sheets finds a team willing to sign him to 2-year deal with the first year basically guaranteeing nothing and the second year having a low base salary with a huge incentive package based on innings pitched and/or starts.
I'd take a shot on Sheets under that 2nd scenario as long as I wasn't giving up a ton of money. Maybe $1 million for '09 to allow him to rehab in my team's system (maybe a bonus or two if he's on the playoff roster - assuming the team reaches the playoffs) and then a $3 million base for '10 w/ incentives that could bring his earnings up to $12-14 million.
Too bad for Sheets. He's a stud who could really help a team at the front end of the rotation.
UPDATE: Jon Heyman from Sports Illustrated is now reporting that Sheets will have surgery and that Sheets hopes to return in July or August. My thoughts on Sheets remain the same.
KW
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
TBG Top Prospects 81-90
Prospects 91-100 can be found here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tbg-top-prospects-91-100.html
The entire Top 100 can be found (in list form only, no reports) here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (81-90)
90. Jake McGee, LHP (Rays – b: 8/6/86)
This is a bit of a strange selection, I admit, because McGee will probably miss 2009 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given the success rate with Tommy John guys and given McGee’s upside I think it would be a mistake to write him off. He’s a big, hard throwing lefty who had 553 strikeouts in 485 minor league innings before having surgery. At worst he’ll be a power lefty out of the pen along the lines of Matt Thornton or maybe even B.J. Ryan.
89. Eric Hosmer, 1B (Royals – b: 10/24/89)
With a little more time to develop Hosmer should be a Top 10-20 prospect in the not-too-distant future. The 6’4” left handed hitter has a ton of power and projects as a strong defensive player as well, I just have a little trouble rating 19 year-old with 3 pro games under his belt in the Top 50. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm – wonder why he’s not an OF instead of a 1B? – and the Royals are certainly looking forward to watching him develop.
88. Dellin Betances, RHP (Yankees – b: 3/23/88)
With some improvements in his command, Betances will start to move up the ranks in leaps and bounds. The 6’8” 245 pound right hander has a dominant fastball that reaches the upper-90’s and his breaking ball is solid as well. If he can develop a third quality pitch he’ll have a career as a starter, if not he’s got enough heat to be a lights-out closer. Getting a good read on pitchers this tall who throw hard isn’t easy – when you think about how much closer their release point is to home plate compared to someone 6-8 inches shorter you begin to get the idea. The ball just explodes on hitters.
87. Greg Halman, OF (Mariners – b: 8/26/87)
Halman had a strong season in ’08, showing both power and speed while splitting the season between High-A and Double-A despite not turning 21 years-old until the end of August. In fact, Halman was nearly a 30-30 guy (29 HR, 31 SB) and his .854 OPS was more than respectable. With the Mariners seriously lacking in big time production in their outfield a guy like Halman could arrive at any time as long as he gets off to a good start to the season.
86. Michael Inoa, RHP (A’s – b: 9/24/91)
Yep, that’s a “91” in his birth date. Inoa is still just 17 years-old and has event come close to a pro diamond yet but guys with his measurables get ranked anyway. He’s an athletic 6’7” who is not at all awkward, according to reports, and his fastball already reaches the mid-90’s. Word on the street is that Inoa also has a nasty split-finger fastball as well. Eventually we’ll find out about his command and endurance but in terms of raw pitching ability very few prospects are even in his league. May be the #1 overall prospect in the game in couple of years.
85. Nick Adenhart, RHP (Angels – b: 8/24/86)
His reputation took a big dent in ’08 after he got knocked around both at Triple-A and in the Majors but it should be pointed out that he reached the Majors before his 22nd birthday. Adenhart isn’t a strikeout pitcher – and never will be – but he’s still a guy that should be a successful big league starter. Don’t give up on him yet, he’s not done developing.
84. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP (Brewers – b: 9/21/87)
Personally, I think Jeffress projects as a closer. Walks are a problem at this point in his career but he’s got a fastball that has reportedly touched 100 MPH and he didn’t turn 21 until the end of September ’08. He needs some work for sure but his upside is tremendous. Jeffress has a curve and a change that could develop into very good pitches. In fact, the development of those pitches will probably determine what his future role is – if those pitches are strong, he’s a starter.
83. Gaby Sanchez, 1B (Marlins – b: 9/2/83)
I really like Sanchez as an offensive player and there’s a chance he could be the Marlins’ starting first baseman this season. He hasn’t shown a ton of HR power but I think there are 20-25 HR’s in that bat going forward, plus he’s a patient guy who walked as often as he struck out last season. As an added bonus, Sanchez also swiped 17 bags in ’08. Now 25 years-old, his status as a “prospect” is pretty much limited to this season. He’s either a big leaguer or a tweener at this time next year.
82. Jemile Weeks, 2B (A’s – b: 1/26/87)
Jemile is the switch-hitting little brother of Rickie Weeks. He’s not a power guy like Rickie but he is a very good offensive player who projects as a leadoff man. Jemile does have some gap power and does a good job of working the count, something the A’s certainly value in his game. Right now he’s a 2B but if he has defensive problems going forward he could easily handle CF with his speed. I suspect he’ll advance quickly as long as he doesn’t have injury problems.
81. Engel Beltre, OF (Rangers – b: 11/1/89)
Beltre is still raw and needs refinement but the tools are certainly there. Spent the entire ’08 season playing in the Low-A Midwest League as an 18 year-old and while his numbers aren’t all that exciting at first glance (.283/.308/.403) they’re not bad when you consider a lot of guys his age were playing Short Season or Rookie ball. He has plenty of speed already and looks like he’ll develop power as his body fills out but he will need to work on his pitch selection (105 K/15 BB w/ 566 AB in ‘08) to maximize his offensive ability.
KW
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tbg-top-prospects-91-100.html
The entire Top 100 can be found (in list form only, no reports) here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (81-90)
90. Jake McGee, LHP (Rays – b: 8/6/86)
This is a bit of a strange selection, I admit, because McGee will probably miss 2009 while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Given the success rate with Tommy John guys and given McGee’s upside I think it would be a mistake to write him off. He’s a big, hard throwing lefty who had 553 strikeouts in 485 minor league innings before having surgery. At worst he’ll be a power lefty out of the pen along the lines of Matt Thornton or maybe even B.J. Ryan.
89. Eric Hosmer, 1B (Royals – b: 10/24/89)
With a little more time to develop Hosmer should be a Top 10-20 prospect in the not-too-distant future. The 6’4” left handed hitter has a ton of power and projects as a strong defensive player as well, I just have a little trouble rating 19 year-old with 3 pro games under his belt in the Top 50. He’s a good athlete with a strong arm – wonder why he’s not an OF instead of a 1B? – and the Royals are certainly looking forward to watching him develop.
88. Dellin Betances, RHP (Yankees – b: 3/23/88)
With some improvements in his command, Betances will start to move up the ranks in leaps and bounds. The 6’8” 245 pound right hander has a dominant fastball that reaches the upper-90’s and his breaking ball is solid as well. If he can develop a third quality pitch he’ll have a career as a starter, if not he’s got enough heat to be a lights-out closer. Getting a good read on pitchers this tall who throw hard isn’t easy – when you think about how much closer their release point is to home plate compared to someone 6-8 inches shorter you begin to get the idea. The ball just explodes on hitters.
87. Greg Halman, OF (Mariners – b: 8/26/87)
Halman had a strong season in ’08, showing both power and speed while splitting the season between High-A and Double-A despite not turning 21 years-old until the end of August. In fact, Halman was nearly a 30-30 guy (29 HR, 31 SB) and his .854 OPS was more than respectable. With the Mariners seriously lacking in big time production in their outfield a guy like Halman could arrive at any time as long as he gets off to a good start to the season.
86. Michael Inoa, RHP (A’s – b: 9/24/91)
Yep, that’s a “91” in his birth date. Inoa is still just 17 years-old and has event come close to a pro diamond yet but guys with his measurables get ranked anyway. He’s an athletic 6’7” who is not at all awkward, according to reports, and his fastball already reaches the mid-90’s. Word on the street is that Inoa also has a nasty split-finger fastball as well. Eventually we’ll find out about his command and endurance but in terms of raw pitching ability very few prospects are even in his league. May be the #1 overall prospect in the game in couple of years.
85. Nick Adenhart, RHP (Angels – b: 8/24/86)
His reputation took a big dent in ’08 after he got knocked around both at Triple-A and in the Majors but it should be pointed out that he reached the Majors before his 22nd birthday. Adenhart isn’t a strikeout pitcher – and never will be – but he’s still a guy that should be a successful big league starter. Don’t give up on him yet, he’s not done developing.
84. Jeremy Jeffress, RHP (Brewers – b: 9/21/87)
Personally, I think Jeffress projects as a closer. Walks are a problem at this point in his career but he’s got a fastball that has reportedly touched 100 MPH and he didn’t turn 21 until the end of September ’08. He needs some work for sure but his upside is tremendous. Jeffress has a curve and a change that could develop into very good pitches. In fact, the development of those pitches will probably determine what his future role is – if those pitches are strong, he’s a starter.
83. Gaby Sanchez, 1B (Marlins – b: 9/2/83)
I really like Sanchez as an offensive player and there’s a chance he could be the Marlins’ starting first baseman this season. He hasn’t shown a ton of HR power but I think there are 20-25 HR’s in that bat going forward, plus he’s a patient guy who walked as often as he struck out last season. As an added bonus, Sanchez also swiped 17 bags in ’08. Now 25 years-old, his status as a “prospect” is pretty much limited to this season. He’s either a big leaguer or a tweener at this time next year.
82. Jemile Weeks, 2B (A’s – b: 1/26/87)
Jemile is the switch-hitting little brother of Rickie Weeks. He’s not a power guy like Rickie but he is a very good offensive player who projects as a leadoff man. Jemile does have some gap power and does a good job of working the count, something the A’s certainly value in his game. Right now he’s a 2B but if he has defensive problems going forward he could easily handle CF with his speed. I suspect he’ll advance quickly as long as he doesn’t have injury problems.
81. Engel Beltre, OF (Rangers – b: 11/1/89)
Beltre is still raw and needs refinement but the tools are certainly there. Spent the entire ’08 season playing in the Low-A Midwest League as an 18 year-old and while his numbers aren’t all that exciting at first glance (.283/.308/.403) they’re not bad when you consider a lot of guys his age were playing Short Season or Rookie ball. He has plenty of speed already and looks like he’ll develop power as his body fills out but he will need to work on his pitch selection (105 K/15 BB w/ 566 AB in ‘08) to maximize his offensive ability.
KW
Thinking Out Loud - Feb 3, 2009
Manny turns down the Dodgers
Now that Manny-Boras has turned down the Dodgers 1-year, $25 million deal it's time for the Dodgers to move on. They can snag 2-3 really good players for that much money so I'd stop waiting and get back to work.
I think Bobby Abreu would be a great fit. His consistency would be incredibly valuable for a team with so many young players. Adam Dunn would be okay too, but he's too streaky for what they need.
Abreu is Manny-Lite. He has less HR power but gets on base just as well, has plenty of HR/RBI ability and, unlike Manny, Abreu is a good base runner and plays a decent RF.
If the Dodgers sign Abreu and someone like Randy Wolf that would be a solid move.
Abreu to ChiSox?
NY Daily News is reporting that the White Sox have made a 1-year offer to Abreu. The only way that makes sense is if Kenny Williams is planning on turning around and dealing somone like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye.
Konerko's defense is needed at 1B (compared to that of Thome), so it wouldn't be him. Plus, he wouldn't bring much of a return at this point.
Thome's not exactly at the peak of his career and also wouldn't fetch much.
With Dye we have a whole offseason's worth of rumors to fall back on, plus he's a free agent at the end of the year. They could get something of value for him and I'd bet on him being the one who gets moved.
So, who needs a middle of the order outfielder?
Angels, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Reds, Mets. Maybe a couple of others on the fringe.
Would be a nice move for the Dodgers if they can't just sign Abreu themselves. Going by Williams' history, I assume he would be targeting young pitching. Dodgers, Giants and Reds can help there.
Playing at The Cell would be good for Abreu. It's a nice hitter's park so he could put up some numbers and then re-enter free agency again next offseason.
Where does Dunn end up?
I don't know the answer to that question - could be any number of places between Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles.
What I do know is that Dunn should be the guy the Braves pursue hot-and-heavy right now. They need a productive OF and if you throw Dunn into the mix with Chipper, McCann & Co. you've got a very nice middle of the order.
He's not the perfect ballplayer but the Braves need offense and he can supply it, especially when surrounded by guys who are more consistent than he is. Plus, the Braves could get him on a 1-2 year deal.
Pull the trigger, fellas.
KW
Now that Manny-Boras has turned down the Dodgers 1-year, $25 million deal it's time for the Dodgers to move on. They can snag 2-3 really good players for that much money so I'd stop waiting and get back to work.
I think Bobby Abreu would be a great fit. His consistency would be incredibly valuable for a team with so many young players. Adam Dunn would be okay too, but he's too streaky for what they need.
Abreu is Manny-Lite. He has less HR power but gets on base just as well, has plenty of HR/RBI ability and, unlike Manny, Abreu is a good base runner and plays a decent RF.
If the Dodgers sign Abreu and someone like Randy Wolf that would be a solid move.
Abreu to ChiSox?
NY Daily News is reporting that the White Sox have made a 1-year offer to Abreu. The only way that makes sense is if Kenny Williams is planning on turning around and dealing somone like Paul Konerko, Jim Thome or Jermaine Dye.
Konerko's defense is needed at 1B (compared to that of Thome), so it wouldn't be him. Plus, he wouldn't bring much of a return at this point.
Thome's not exactly at the peak of his career and also wouldn't fetch much.
With Dye we have a whole offseason's worth of rumors to fall back on, plus he's a free agent at the end of the year. They could get something of value for him and I'd bet on him being the one who gets moved.
So, who needs a middle of the order outfielder?
Angels, Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, Reds, Mets. Maybe a couple of others on the fringe.
Would be a nice move for the Dodgers if they can't just sign Abreu themselves. Going by Williams' history, I assume he would be targeting young pitching. Dodgers, Giants and Reds can help there.
Playing at The Cell would be good for Abreu. It's a nice hitter's park so he could put up some numbers and then re-enter free agency again next offseason.
Where does Dunn end up?
I don't know the answer to that question - could be any number of places between Washington, D.C. and Los Angeles.
What I do know is that Dunn should be the guy the Braves pursue hot-and-heavy right now. They need a productive OF and if you throw Dunn into the mix with Chipper, McCann & Co. you've got a very nice middle of the order.
He's not the perfect ballplayer but the Braves need offense and he can supply it, especially when surrounded by guys who are more consistent than he is. Plus, the Braves could get him on a 1-2 year deal.
Pull the trigger, fellas.
KW
Monday, February 2, 2009
Early 2009 Power Rankings #26
Back to the TBG Early 2009 Power Rankings - #'s 27-30 can be found in the archive for January...
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
26. Kansas City Royals
Like a lot of teams ranked near the bottom of the TBG Power Rankings, the Royals confuse the hell out of me. We all undertand that they have financial limitations and I think any logical person who follows baseball will give them the benefit of the doubt in that regard.
Those limitations, however, do not explain the oddball moves this team makes on a year-to-year basis. They waste a lot of the money they have available on mediocre, middle-of-the-pack players who are easily replaceable.
Why spend money on guys who are not difference makers when you have limited resources?
I'll get into detail on that subject as we go through the projected lineup and rotation further down the page but I've already touched on that subject on this blog with the piece I did about their catching situation called "This is why the Royals are the Royals":
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/this-is-why-royals-are-royals.html
The team is doing some good things - and I'll be sure to credit them for those things - but there are still far too many strange decisions made on a pretty regular basis...
LINEUP
According to the Royals' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Miguel Olivo/John Buck
1B. Mike Jacobs
2B. Alberto Callaspo
3B. Alex Gordon
SS. Mike Aviles
LF. David DeJesus
CF. Coco Crisp
RF. Jose Guillen
DH. Billy Butler
Since I've already addressed the catching situation at the above link, I'll keep my comments on that subject brief. Why in the world would a team with limited resources pay two catchers nearly $3 million each to be the SAME PLAYER. Buck and Olivo are the same guy - good pop, terrible contact skills and decent defensively. I don't get it.
First base is another spot I just don't understand. Mike Jacobs is a decent player and certainly an everyday big leaguer but why the Royals wanted him is beyond me. First of all, they have to pay him somewhere between $3.05 and $3.85 million this season to play a position that could be manned by a younger, cheaper player with more upside. What would have been wrong with playing Kila Ka'aihue there? Kila's cheaper, has big-time power and he actually knows how to draw a walk, something Jacobs isn't especially familiar with. I just don't get why teams like the Royals block talented young players with below average veterans, which is what Jacobs is. Compare him to the other starting 1B's in MLB and tell me he's not in the bottom 10.
Second base is also a bit of a mystery, though I like what I'm hearing about giving Mark Teahen a shot there in Spring Training. He doesn't have enough power to be a regular at 1B, 3B, LF or RF but if he can handle the position his bat would be okay for a regular 2B. As of now the team has Alberto Callaspo listed as the starter but he's more of a utility man to me.
Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon are solid at SS and 3B, respectively. I'm not sure Aviles is as good as his '08 numbers indicate but entering '09 he's a solid choice. Might be better suited at 2B long term, but we'll see. Gordon needs to step it up at the plate and in the field this season. He was drafted with the idea that he'd be a cornerstone player for this franchise long-term and while the ability is certainly there the consistency has not been. I'm feeling optimistic about him for '09, however, and think he'll have a breakout season.
What's up with this team paying veteran backups a couple million a season? Are Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million) and Ross Gload ($1.9 million) really worth that money to this team? Nothing against either guy, they're both serviceable Major Leaguers, but this team simply cannot afford to pay that much to backups. They'd be better off investing that money in prospects from the Dominican every year or on their draft picks. They've been a last place team with guys like them and they can be a last place team without them.
The outfield isn't horrible, it just isn't all that exciting either. David DeJesus hasn't developed as the Royals had hoped and while he's a decent player he's pretty much average across the board and not "special." He's better than their other options in the OF but he's not what the team hoped he would be. Coco Crisp is okay as well but they'd be better off with just one of those two guys rather than both - I'd pick Coco over DeJesus because of his speed. Crisp wasn't a bad pickup, I'm just not sure he's worth $5.75 million to this club. Jose Guillen is the most talented of the bunch and can be a productive hitter - when he feels like it. The problem with Guillen is that he suffers from "turd-itis." Good player, bad guy.
As far as offensive prospects go, I'm not all that excited about anyone not named Kila, at least not for 2009. I really think Ka'aihue is going to be a good player, a power hitter that will get on base as well. Not sure why the team blocked him heading into '09. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer look like excellent long-term hitting prospects but the Royals are looking at 2010 or 2011 before they'll be an option.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Royals' website:
1. Gil Meche
2. Zack Greinke
3. Brian Bannister
4. Kyle Davies
5. Luke Hochevar
That's actually a decent group of starters. Meche has turned out better than I thought he would when the Royals gave him that contract and the team certainly deserves credit for that move. He may not be a true #1 starter but he's proven himself to be a good pitcher and the team needs him badly.
I'm a big fan of Zack Greinke and think he'll continue to improve upon what he did last season. I also love the fact that Dayton Moore got Greinke locked up long-term - great move. This guy is their ace going forward.
I think Brian Bannister is better than his '08 numbers indicate but he's more of a 4th/5th starter on a good team. Still, he's not a bad option. Kyle Davies is very talented and started to "get it" toward the end of '08 - he could be the 2009 version of what Todd Wellemeyer was in 2008, the guy who has always had talent and finally combines performance with opportunity. Luke Hochevar has the ability to be this team's second or third best starter in the not-too-distant future, barring developmental problems. I liked what I saw from him in spots last season.
Brandon Duckworth and Horacio Ramirez are also possibilities for the rotation, especially if Hochevar and/or Davies have a poor spring. Not a fan of either, to be perfectly honest, but they're serviceable. Not sure why the Royals thought Ramirez was worth $1.9 million since he hasn't been very good since 2005 and even then he was only mediocre. More on that in a bit...
CL. Joakim Soria
This guy is nails. Love everything about him. He's got great stuff, excellent make-up and he's young. Also, brilliant move by Moore getting Soria locked up long-term - he's under team control for the next 6 years (3 years guaranteed, 2012-2014 at the team's option). Much respect to the Royals for how they've handled Soria.
The rest of the bullpen is okay but not spectacular. I didn't like the Ramon Ramirez-for-Coco Crisp deal at all and I don't think Kyle Farnsworth is a guy I'd give $9.25 million to over two years. Ron Mahay is okay, so is Jimmy Gobble, but I think they have more depth than quality.
There are some pitching prospects on the way and I think that's something for the Royals to be excited about. Carlos Rosa, Daniel Cortes, Blake Wood, Danny Gutierrez, Julio Pimentel are all getting close and eventually guys like Tim Melville and Mike Montgomery will starting making some noise as well.
OVERVIEW
Despite some of the goofy moves this team makes at the big league level, there is reason for Royals fans to have hope for the future. The farm system is getting better and some of those guys are developing pretty rapidly.
Here's a question for you: What if the Royls hadn't made the following moves?
* Trading Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp ($5.75 million)
* Signing Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million for '09) - could have kept Ramirez in that role
* Signing John Buck ($2.9 million) to complement Miguel Olivo
* Signing Ross Gload ($1.9 million) to a 2-year deal before '08
* Signing Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million)
* Signing Horacio Ramirez ($1.9 million)
Had they not made those moves they could have saved $18.1 MILLION. Given what has happened with the free agent market (guys like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu still looking for work), the Royals could have landed an IMPACT PLAYER, which is exactly what they so desperately need.
Hell, you could probably land Abreu for two years with that $18 million right now.
Plus, you wouldn't even notice the other guys were missing.
That's what I'm talking about, fellas. Stop wasting money on fringe players, backups, utility guys and inconsistent veteran relievers and save that money for IMPACT PLAYERS. Use minimum wage guys for the bench and save the money for the everyday players.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
26. Kansas City Royals
Like a lot of teams ranked near the bottom of the TBG Power Rankings, the Royals confuse the hell out of me. We all undertand that they have financial limitations and I think any logical person who follows baseball will give them the benefit of the doubt in that regard.
Those limitations, however, do not explain the oddball moves this team makes on a year-to-year basis. They waste a lot of the money they have available on mediocre, middle-of-the-pack players who are easily replaceable.
Why spend money on guys who are not difference makers when you have limited resources?
I'll get into detail on that subject as we go through the projected lineup and rotation further down the page but I've already touched on that subject on this blog with the piece I did about their catching situation called "This is why the Royals are the Royals":
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/this-is-why-royals-are-royals.html
The team is doing some good things - and I'll be sure to credit them for those things - but there are still far too many strange decisions made on a pretty regular basis...
LINEUP
According to the Royals' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Miguel Olivo/John Buck
1B. Mike Jacobs
2B. Alberto Callaspo
3B. Alex Gordon
SS. Mike Aviles
LF. David DeJesus
CF. Coco Crisp
RF. Jose Guillen
DH. Billy Butler
Since I've already addressed the catching situation at the above link, I'll keep my comments on that subject brief. Why in the world would a team with limited resources pay two catchers nearly $3 million each to be the SAME PLAYER. Buck and Olivo are the same guy - good pop, terrible contact skills and decent defensively. I don't get it.
First base is another spot I just don't understand. Mike Jacobs is a decent player and certainly an everyday big leaguer but why the Royals wanted him is beyond me. First of all, they have to pay him somewhere between $3.05 and $3.85 million this season to play a position that could be manned by a younger, cheaper player with more upside. What would have been wrong with playing Kila Ka'aihue there? Kila's cheaper, has big-time power and he actually knows how to draw a walk, something Jacobs isn't especially familiar with. I just don't get why teams like the Royals block talented young players with below average veterans, which is what Jacobs is. Compare him to the other starting 1B's in MLB and tell me he's not in the bottom 10.
Second base is also a bit of a mystery, though I like what I'm hearing about giving Mark Teahen a shot there in Spring Training. He doesn't have enough power to be a regular at 1B, 3B, LF or RF but if he can handle the position his bat would be okay for a regular 2B. As of now the team has Alberto Callaspo listed as the starter but he's more of a utility man to me.
Mike Aviles and Alex Gordon are solid at SS and 3B, respectively. I'm not sure Aviles is as good as his '08 numbers indicate but entering '09 he's a solid choice. Might be better suited at 2B long term, but we'll see. Gordon needs to step it up at the plate and in the field this season. He was drafted with the idea that he'd be a cornerstone player for this franchise long-term and while the ability is certainly there the consistency has not been. I'm feeling optimistic about him for '09, however, and think he'll have a breakout season.
What's up with this team paying veteran backups a couple million a season? Are Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million) and Ross Gload ($1.9 million) really worth that money to this team? Nothing against either guy, they're both serviceable Major Leaguers, but this team simply cannot afford to pay that much to backups. They'd be better off investing that money in prospects from the Dominican every year or on their draft picks. They've been a last place team with guys like them and they can be a last place team without them.
The outfield isn't horrible, it just isn't all that exciting either. David DeJesus hasn't developed as the Royals had hoped and while he's a decent player he's pretty much average across the board and not "special." He's better than their other options in the OF but he's not what the team hoped he would be. Coco Crisp is okay as well but they'd be better off with just one of those two guys rather than both - I'd pick Coco over DeJesus because of his speed. Crisp wasn't a bad pickup, I'm just not sure he's worth $5.75 million to this club. Jose Guillen is the most talented of the bunch and can be a productive hitter - when he feels like it. The problem with Guillen is that he suffers from "turd-itis." Good player, bad guy.
As far as offensive prospects go, I'm not all that excited about anyone not named Kila, at least not for 2009. I really think Ka'aihue is going to be a good player, a power hitter that will get on base as well. Not sure why the team blocked him heading into '09. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer look like excellent long-term hitting prospects but the Royals are looking at 2010 or 2011 before they'll be an option.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Royals' website:
1. Gil Meche
2. Zack Greinke
3. Brian Bannister
4. Kyle Davies
5. Luke Hochevar
That's actually a decent group of starters. Meche has turned out better than I thought he would when the Royals gave him that contract and the team certainly deserves credit for that move. He may not be a true #1 starter but he's proven himself to be a good pitcher and the team needs him badly.
I'm a big fan of Zack Greinke and think he'll continue to improve upon what he did last season. I also love the fact that Dayton Moore got Greinke locked up long-term - great move. This guy is their ace going forward.
I think Brian Bannister is better than his '08 numbers indicate but he's more of a 4th/5th starter on a good team. Still, he's not a bad option. Kyle Davies is very talented and started to "get it" toward the end of '08 - he could be the 2009 version of what Todd Wellemeyer was in 2008, the guy who has always had talent and finally combines performance with opportunity. Luke Hochevar has the ability to be this team's second or third best starter in the not-too-distant future, barring developmental problems. I liked what I saw from him in spots last season.
Brandon Duckworth and Horacio Ramirez are also possibilities for the rotation, especially if Hochevar and/or Davies have a poor spring. Not a fan of either, to be perfectly honest, but they're serviceable. Not sure why the Royals thought Ramirez was worth $1.9 million since he hasn't been very good since 2005 and even then he was only mediocre. More on that in a bit...
CL. Joakim Soria
This guy is nails. Love everything about him. He's got great stuff, excellent make-up and he's young. Also, brilliant move by Moore getting Soria locked up long-term - he's under team control for the next 6 years (3 years guaranteed, 2012-2014 at the team's option). Much respect to the Royals for how they've handled Soria.
The rest of the bullpen is okay but not spectacular. I didn't like the Ramon Ramirez-for-Coco Crisp deal at all and I don't think Kyle Farnsworth is a guy I'd give $9.25 million to over two years. Ron Mahay is okay, so is Jimmy Gobble, but I think they have more depth than quality.
There are some pitching prospects on the way and I think that's something for the Royals to be excited about. Carlos Rosa, Daniel Cortes, Blake Wood, Danny Gutierrez, Julio Pimentel are all getting close and eventually guys like Tim Melville and Mike Montgomery will starting making some noise as well.
OVERVIEW
Despite some of the goofy moves this team makes at the big league level, there is reason for Royals fans to have hope for the future. The farm system is getting better and some of those guys are developing pretty rapidly.
Here's a question for you: What if the Royls hadn't made the following moves?
* Trading Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp ($5.75 million)
* Signing Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million for '09) - could have kept Ramirez in that role
* Signing John Buck ($2.9 million) to complement Miguel Olivo
* Signing Ross Gload ($1.9 million) to a 2-year deal before '08
* Signing Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million)
* Signing Horacio Ramirez ($1.9 million)
Had they not made those moves they could have saved $18.1 MILLION. Given what has happened with the free agent market (guys like Adam Dunn and Bobby Abreu still looking for work), the Royals could have landed an IMPACT PLAYER, which is exactly what they so desperately need.
Hell, you could probably land Abreu for two years with that $18 million right now.
Plus, you wouldn't even notice the other guys were missing.
That's what I'm talking about, fellas. Stop wasting money on fringe players, backups, utility guys and inconsistent veteran relievers and save that money for IMPACT PLAYERS. Use minimum wage guys for the bench and save the money for the everyday players.
KW
Thursday, January 29, 2009
Pujols to Cards - Give Manny a call
According to an AP report on Thursday, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols says he'd like his club to bring Manny Ramirez to St. Louis.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/F380F9628A1A931D8625754E00020A4B?OpenDocument
That would be one hell of 3-4 punch now wouldn't it?
Pujols even suggests Manny might offer up a discount to play for the Cardinals...
Yeah, right.
One problem - Cards GM John Mozeliak shot the idea down Thursday night...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090129&content_id=3784024&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
There are two reasons Manny still hasn't signed with anyone:
1. He's asking for too much money for too many years
2. He's a head case
Even though the Cardinals aren't going to make a move like this, there is a way the Cardinals could pull it off on a 1-year contract without breaking the bank, though it would take a little creativity and a lot of guts.
They'd have to find teams that would be willing to trade for Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, which shouldn't be all that difficult despite the fact that both are currently facing arbitration hearings. They're not that expensive, even if they win, and there are several teams looking for some pop in the outfield (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle just to name a few) who might be willing to give up decent, cheap young talent for those guys.
Those moves would save the Cards about $7 million and they're already on pace to be about $7 million below their 2008 payroll of $99 million, so that would mean they'd only need to raise payroll by about $6 million over '08 to add Manny at $20 million for one year.
Now, I realize it's not my money and I'm not suggesting the Cardinals should do it, I'm just saying they could do it without demolishing the team's short term financial goals. Plus, in this rough economic climate the Cards do have the advantage of hosting the All-Star Game this season.
Even if they were to move Ludwick & Ankiel to fit Manny into the OF they'd still have Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather and Colby Rasmus to fill the other two spots with Jon Jay not far from being ready to jump into the mix.
Even if bringing Manny in would be a cost-neutral move, which it would not be, there are other issues to resolve as well. Ramirez doesn't exactly fit Tony LaRussa's "Hard Nine" mentality.
Keep in mind, however, that LaRussa said he'd welcome Barry Bonds in a Cardinals uniform in the past, so maybe he'd be willing to overlook some of Manny-being-Manny to have that Hall of Fame bat backing up Albert.
It's not gonna happen but it sure is fun to think about the possibilities....
KW
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/F380F9628A1A931D8625754E00020A4B?OpenDocument
That would be one hell of 3-4 punch now wouldn't it?
Pujols even suggests Manny might offer up a discount to play for the Cardinals...
Yeah, right.
One problem - Cards GM John Mozeliak shot the idea down Thursday night...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090129&content_id=3784024&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
There are two reasons Manny still hasn't signed with anyone:
1. He's asking for too much money for too many years
2. He's a head case
Even though the Cardinals aren't going to make a move like this, there is a way the Cardinals could pull it off on a 1-year contract without breaking the bank, though it would take a little creativity and a lot of guts.
They'd have to find teams that would be willing to trade for Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, which shouldn't be all that difficult despite the fact that both are currently facing arbitration hearings. They're not that expensive, even if they win, and there are several teams looking for some pop in the outfield (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle just to name a few) who might be willing to give up decent, cheap young talent for those guys.
Those moves would save the Cards about $7 million and they're already on pace to be about $7 million below their 2008 payroll of $99 million, so that would mean they'd only need to raise payroll by about $6 million over '08 to add Manny at $20 million for one year.
Now, I realize it's not my money and I'm not suggesting the Cardinals should do it, I'm just saying they could do it without demolishing the team's short term financial goals. Plus, in this rough economic climate the Cards do have the advantage of hosting the All-Star Game this season.
Even if they were to move Ludwick & Ankiel to fit Manny into the OF they'd still have Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather and Colby Rasmus to fill the other two spots with Jon Jay not far from being ready to jump into the mix.
Even if bringing Manny in would be a cost-neutral move, which it would not be, there are other issues to resolve as well. Ramirez doesn't exactly fit Tony LaRussa's "Hard Nine" mentality.
Keep in mind, however, that LaRussa said he'd welcome Barry Bonds in a Cardinals uniform in the past, so maybe he'd be willing to overlook some of Manny-being-Manny to have that Hall of Fame bat backing up Albert.
It's not gonna happen but it sure is fun to think about the possibilities....
KW
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