According to an AP report on Thursday, Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols says he'd like his club to bring Manny Ramirez to St. Louis.
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/F380F9628A1A931D8625754E00020A4B?OpenDocument
That would be one hell of 3-4 punch now wouldn't it?
Pujols even suggests Manny might offer up a discount to play for the Cardinals...
Yeah, right.
One problem - Cards GM John Mozeliak shot the idea down Thursday night...
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090129&content_id=3784024&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
There are two reasons Manny still hasn't signed with anyone:
1. He's asking for too much money for too many years
2. He's a head case
Even though the Cardinals aren't going to make a move like this, there is a way the Cardinals could pull it off on a 1-year contract without breaking the bank, though it would take a little creativity and a lot of guts.
They'd have to find teams that would be willing to trade for Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, which shouldn't be all that difficult despite the fact that both are currently facing arbitration hearings. They're not that expensive, even if they win, and there are several teams looking for some pop in the outfield (Atlanta, San Francisco, Seattle just to name a few) who might be willing to give up decent, cheap young talent for those guys.
Those moves would save the Cards about $7 million and they're already on pace to be about $7 million below their 2008 payroll of $99 million, so that would mean they'd only need to raise payroll by about $6 million over '08 to add Manny at $20 million for one year.
Now, I realize it's not my money and I'm not suggesting the Cardinals should do it, I'm just saying they could do it without demolishing the team's short term financial goals. Plus, in this rough economic climate the Cards do have the advantage of hosting the All-Star Game this season.
Even if they were to move Ludwick & Ankiel to fit Manny into the OF they'd still have Skip Schumaker, Chris Duncan, Joe Mather and Colby Rasmus to fill the other two spots with Jon Jay not far from being ready to jump into the mix.
Even if bringing Manny in would be a cost-neutral move, which it would not be, there are other issues to resolve as well. Ramirez doesn't exactly fit Tony LaRussa's "Hard Nine" mentality.
Keep in mind, however, that LaRussa said he'd welcome Barry Bonds in a Cardinals uniform in the past, so maybe he'd be willing to overlook some of Manny-being-Manny to have that Hall of Fame bat backing up Albert.
It's not gonna happen but it sure is fun to think about the possibilities....
KW
Thursday, January 29, 2009
What is Varitek thinking?
I want to make one thing perfectly clear about this post - I am not ripping Jason Varitek. I have the utmost respect for him as a player and as a leader, plus as a guy who at one time donned the "tools of ignorance" I've got a soft spot for catchers.
In fact, back when I was warming the pine for the Miami Hurricanes we played Georgia Tech in a weekend series in Atlanta and the two catchers were Jason Varitek and Charles Johnson.
Needless to say, there were a lot of scouts there that day...
Anyway, back to Varitek.
Like a lot of players, Tek is having a difficult time coming to grips with his changing place in Major League Baseball. I know he feels like his contributions merit a certain level of respect (a.k.a salary) but he turns 37 in April, his offensive numbers have been in a deep decline the past three seasons and there just isn't the demand for his services there would have been two years ago.
Just sign with the Sawx and get it over with.
Tek has already made a lifetime's worth of money and it's unlikely he'll ever be without a good paying job given that he could probably name his own career after he retires (future manager, broadcaster, etc.).
His best - and perhaps only - option is to sign with the Red Sox. Take what they are offering and be done with it. There is no reason to push this any further.
They need him, he needs them.
Seems pretty simple, doesn't it?
KW
In fact, back when I was warming the pine for the Miami Hurricanes we played Georgia Tech in a weekend series in Atlanta and the two catchers were Jason Varitek and Charles Johnson.
Needless to say, there were a lot of scouts there that day...
Anyway, back to Varitek.
Like a lot of players, Tek is having a difficult time coming to grips with his changing place in Major League Baseball. I know he feels like his contributions merit a certain level of respect (a.k.a salary) but he turns 37 in April, his offensive numbers have been in a deep decline the past three seasons and there just isn't the demand for his services there would have been two years ago.
Just sign with the Sawx and get it over with.
Tek has already made a lifetime's worth of money and it's unlikely he'll ever be without a good paying job given that he could probably name his own career after he retires (future manager, broadcaster, etc.).
His best - and perhaps only - option is to sign with the Red Sox. Take what they are offering and be done with it. There is no reason to push this any further.
They need him, he needs them.
Seems pretty simple, doesn't it?
KW
Wednesday, January 28, 2009
Thinking Out Loud - Jan 28, 2009
Garland signs w/ D'Backs
Very nice signing by Arizona and at a very fair price. They get a guy who is a workhorse and now they have three of those 200-inning guys in their 5-man rotation (Webb & Haren being the other two), plus Davis and Scherzer.
Not bad.
I really like Garland in the NL and think his ERA drops 0.50-0.75 just by switching leagues. No DH and lots of games in pitcher's parks (LA, SD, SF).
He's not a star but he'll be an effective NL starter.
Cubs-Mariners trade
Aaron Heilman goes to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.
Heilman wants to start and the Cubs will give him a chance, which is odd because I'm not sure he's a better candidate to start than Sean Marshall. Maybe he winds up back in the bullpen, which wouldn't be terrible except for the fact that he wasn't entirely happy in that role in NY.
Why give up on Cedeno? Good bat, can play all over the infield and he's cheap. Decent pickup for the M's, should be a helpful bat off the bench.
Olson was a nice pickup for Seattle as well. Now if they can just find a way to unload Batista, Washburn and/or Silva that would be gravy. Good luck with that fellas....
Kind of a blah deal that doesn't do much for me either direction to be honest.
Tigers sign Lyons
What do teams see in Lyons that I'm missing?
This guy has never proven he can be a good closer over a full season and yet teams keep trying him in that role. He's a setup man, plain & simple.
If Fernando Rodney comes out throwing strikes he's a better option than Lyons.
If Joel Zumaya is 100% healthy he's a better option too.
Leyland needs to go with the guy who's pitching the best and not stick with the older guy (Lyons) like he did w/ Todd Jones....
KW
Very nice signing by Arizona and at a very fair price. They get a guy who is a workhorse and now they have three of those 200-inning guys in their 5-man rotation (Webb & Haren being the other two), plus Davis and Scherzer.
Not bad.
I really like Garland in the NL and think his ERA drops 0.50-0.75 just by switching leagues. No DH and lots of games in pitcher's parks (LA, SD, SF).
He's not a star but he'll be an effective NL starter.
Cubs-Mariners trade
Aaron Heilman goes to the Cubs for Garrett Olson and Ronny Cedeno.
Heilman wants to start and the Cubs will give him a chance, which is odd because I'm not sure he's a better candidate to start than Sean Marshall. Maybe he winds up back in the bullpen, which wouldn't be terrible except for the fact that he wasn't entirely happy in that role in NY.
Why give up on Cedeno? Good bat, can play all over the infield and he's cheap. Decent pickup for the M's, should be a helpful bat off the bench.
Olson was a nice pickup for Seattle as well. Now if they can just find a way to unload Batista, Washburn and/or Silva that would be gravy. Good luck with that fellas....
Kind of a blah deal that doesn't do much for me either direction to be honest.
Tigers sign Lyons
What do teams see in Lyons that I'm missing?
This guy has never proven he can be a good closer over a full season and yet teams keep trying him in that role. He's a setup man, plain & simple.
If Fernando Rodney comes out throwing strikes he's a better option than Lyons.
If Joel Zumaya is 100% healthy he's a better option too.
Leyland needs to go with the guy who's pitching the best and not stick with the older guy (Lyons) like he did w/ Todd Jones....
KW
Tuesday, January 27, 2009
TBG Top Prospects: 91-100
My first post on this blog was my Top 100 Prospects list and when I posted that I promised a little more detail for each of the players, so today I'm beginning the process of putting the rankings out there along with comments on each player.
As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
Comments and questions are welcome.
Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.
Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html
And away we go...
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)
Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.
99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)
I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.
98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)
Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.
97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)
Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.
96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)
Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?
95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)
Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.
94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)
Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.
93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)
Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.
92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)
Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.
91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)
Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.
KW
As you can tell by the title of the post, I'm doing this in 10-player segments and going in reverse order. The full list is here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html
Comments and questions are welcome.
Keep in mind that this is not an exact science. There is no "right" or "wrong" in all of this, yet.
Check this post out if you want to understand where I'm coming from:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/tgb-top-100-prospects-commentary.html
And away we go...
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects (91-100)
100. Dennis Raben, OF (SEA - b: 7/31/87)
Raben is a 6’3” 220 pound power hitter with good patience. He’s okay defensively and should be fine in a corner outfield spot long term. Not as prolific in college at fellow Hurricane Pat Burrell but I think Raben can be a left-handed version of Burrell in the big leagues. The biggest knocks against both – long swings and an approach that sometimes seems too passive.
99. Derek Holland, LHP (Rangers - b: 10/8/86)
I’ll admit right up front that this is probably going to end up being too low for Holland. He’s got a big-time mid-90’s fastball, a slider and a change. His control has been strong thus far in his career and it will be interesting to see how the 22 year-old fares with a longer look against Double-A and/or Triple-A hitters. Could be a big breakout year for Holland in ’09.
98. Chris Nelson, SS (Rockies - b: 9/3/85)
Nelson is an athletically gifted player who struggled during the ’08 regular season and played in just 81 games but he really turned things around in the Arizona Fall League (.987 OPS, 6 HR in 84 AB). He’ll be an interesting player to watch, especially since Troy Tulowitzki is entrenched at SS with the Rockies. Nelson could wind up at 2B or in the OF.
97. Bradley Holt, RHP (Mets - b: 10/13/86)
Holt looks like the kind of pitcher who will advance quickly in ’09. The 6’4” 200 pound right hander has a mid-90’s fastball and sharp breaking curve that allowed him to fan 96 batters in 72 1/3 IP in the New York-Penn League last year. Holt is reported to be a good athlete as well, which is always a plus, but he does need to improve his command a bit. Like Holland, a guy who could have a breakout season in ’09.
96. Hank Conger, C (Angels - b: 1/29/88)
Conger can flat out hit the baseball but his durability is a bit of an issue entering ’09. He played in just 87 games during the ’07 season and managed only 73 games in ’08. If he can put together a healthy season in ’09 – and he appears to be headed for Double-A – then Conger will be very close to making it to the big leagues. Who wouldn’t want a 21 year-old switch-hitting catcher with power?
95. Daniel Bard, RHP (Red Sox – b: 6/25/85)
Bard throws extremely hard, like upper 90’s hard, and I think he’s got a really good chance to be a Major League closer. ’08 was his first as a reliever and he fanned 107 batters in 77 2/3 innings combined between High-A and Double-A, with most of his action coming at the higher of the two levels. His slider has potential to be an out pitch and so long as he doesn’t have control problems – which he did as a starter in ’07 – he’ll be in the Majors soon.
94. Michael Burgess, OF (Nationals - b: 10/20/88)
Burgess needs to make better contact and cut back on strikeouts but he has some lightning in his bat for sure. He hit 24 HR’s combined between Low-A and High-A in ’08 and did so as a 19 year-old. Burgess draws some walks so there is hope for him to become a better contact hitter as he matures. Good guy to keep an eye on in ’09.
93. Brian Matusz, LHP (Orioles - b: 2/11/87)
Yet another young hurler who figures to turn some heads in ’09. Matusz made his pro debut in the Arizona Fall League and handled it well, fanning 10.5 batters per 9 innings. He’s a 6’5” lefty with a low-90’s fastball and three very good offspeed pitches (slider, curve, change). Scouts say he knows what he’s doing on the mound as well. Don’t count on Matusz spending a heck of a lot of time in the minors if he avoids serious injury.
92. Aaron Pordea, LHP (White Sox – b: 10/1/86)
Poreda is a 6’6” 240 pound lefty with a mid 90’s fastball, though his ’08 strikeout totals don’t really impress (118 K in 161 IP between High-A and Double-A). That’s because the fastball is his only really top-notch pitch. If he can turn the slider into something little more exciting he could really take a leap forward. Worst case, Poreda becomes a fastball-first power reliever.
91. Jon Niese, LHP (Mets – b: 10/27/86)
Niese doesn’t have the front-of-the-rotation stuff that some other pitchers in my Top 100 have but he’s done at higher levels than most of them and that counts for something in my book. Fastball is mostly in the low-90’s, has a really good curve and a decent change as well. Struggled in big league duty last season but fanned 144 in 164 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last year while posting a combined 3.13 ERA. May not be an ace but should be a useful Major League starter.
KW
Monday, January 26, 2009
Thinking Out Loud - Jan 26, 2009
Teams missing the boat on Pudge Rodriguez
With the handful of horse-blank catchers out there who have "starting" jobs, Pudge can't find a gig at a discount price? I don't get it.
Even what he did last year (.276, 7 HR, 10 SB in 398 AB) is WAAAAY better than what most catchers provide, plus he's still one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Not what he used to be, but still very good.
Here's a guy who has 8 million Gold Gloves, a better bat than most catchers even if he is in decline and he's ticked off that nobody will give him a shot...
Give me an angry, motivated Pudge Rodriguez any day.
Paging the Florida Marlins...
Paging the Houston Astros...
Richie Sexson worth a shot?
Depending on what kind of contract terms he's looking for, I'd take a shot on Richie Sexson.
I've had some people tell me they think he lost his power after baseball got more serious about steroid testing but I'm not buying that. If that were the case he might have lost some power but his ability to make contact wouldn't have been affected. At 6'8" 240 pounds he could still generate plenty of power without juicing.
Something's up with his swing, his health or his head.
If it's his health - like a bad back or something - then it's going to be tough for him to turn things around, but players can rebound from the other things.
My prescription - tell him to forget about power for the time being, get back to centering up the ball and making consistent contact and then the home runs will come.
When you're as big as Sexson is, there's no reason to fixate on the long ball. They'll come if you get the barrell of the bat to the ball.
Same goes for Andruw Jones, by the way.
Curious about some OF's '09 salaries
Man, there are some really good free agent OF's out there...
Wonder what these guys are gonna make in '09 and I wonder if some teams who weren't planning on adding a bat will change their minds as the prices come down:
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Garret Anderson
Dunn's the guy I'd jump on even if I didn't need a hitter. He's not the best hitter in the world but his combination of power and patience are underrated. He's on base more than most .300 hitters so I'll live with the strikeouts when they come with home runs attached.
Best remaining FA SP's
1. Ben Sheets (definitely worth the risk of a 1-2 year deal)
2. Oliver Perez (if this guy ever learns consistency he'll be nasty)
3. Jon Garland (would be a steal for an NL team)
4. Randy Wolf (I'd take him if I had an open rotation spot)
5. Braden Looper (lots of life left in that arm after spending most of his career in the pen)
6. Odalis Perez (lazy but good enough to fill in the 5th spot in a rotation)
7. Tom Glavine (not sure he's gonna get that many guys out in '09)
8. Andy Pettitte (same as Glavine, especially if back in the AL East)
9. Kris Benson (I'd give him an incentive laden deal to prove he's healthy)
10. Mark Mulder (same as Benson)
How could you leave out Pedro?
Well, I did that on purpose to give him his own section...
SOMEBODY NEEDS TO MAKE PEDRO THEIR CLOSER!!!
Look, he's younger than Trevor Hoffman and he has more pitches too, so why not?
He's never going to be able to stay healthy as a starter (just look at 2006-2008) but he has shown a few things over those three seasons:
1) He still misses a lot of bats (256 K's in 269 2/3 IP)
2) He still has control
3) He can still reach back for a little extra on the fastball, but only on occasion
This guy could close for 4-5 years if he's willing and someone gives him a chance. This guy has four quality pitches, he's a strike thrower AND he has no fear.
Put it all together and it spells "C-L-O-S-E-R"
KW
With the handful of horse-blank catchers out there who have "starting" jobs, Pudge can't find a gig at a discount price? I don't get it.
Even what he did last year (.276, 7 HR, 10 SB in 398 AB) is WAAAAY better than what most catchers provide, plus he's still one of the better defensive catchers in the game. Not what he used to be, but still very good.
Here's a guy who has 8 million Gold Gloves, a better bat than most catchers even if he is in decline and he's ticked off that nobody will give him a shot...
Give me an angry, motivated Pudge Rodriguez any day.
Paging the Florida Marlins...
Paging the Houston Astros...
Richie Sexson worth a shot?
Depending on what kind of contract terms he's looking for, I'd take a shot on Richie Sexson.
I've had some people tell me they think he lost his power after baseball got more serious about steroid testing but I'm not buying that. If that were the case he might have lost some power but his ability to make contact wouldn't have been affected. At 6'8" 240 pounds he could still generate plenty of power without juicing.
Something's up with his swing, his health or his head.
If it's his health - like a bad back or something - then it's going to be tough for him to turn things around, but players can rebound from the other things.
My prescription - tell him to forget about power for the time being, get back to centering up the ball and making consistent contact and then the home runs will come.
When you're as big as Sexson is, there's no reason to fixate on the long ball. They'll come if you get the barrell of the bat to the ball.
Same goes for Andruw Jones, by the way.
Curious about some OF's '09 salaries
Man, there are some really good free agent OF's out there...
Wonder what these guys are gonna make in '09 and I wonder if some teams who weren't planning on adding a bat will change their minds as the prices come down:
Bobby Abreu
Adam Dunn
Garret Anderson
Dunn's the guy I'd jump on even if I didn't need a hitter. He's not the best hitter in the world but his combination of power and patience are underrated. He's on base more than most .300 hitters so I'll live with the strikeouts when they come with home runs attached.
Best remaining FA SP's
1. Ben Sheets (definitely worth the risk of a 1-2 year deal)
2. Oliver Perez (if this guy ever learns consistency he'll be nasty)
3. Jon Garland (would be a steal for an NL team)
4. Randy Wolf (I'd take him if I had an open rotation spot)
5. Braden Looper (lots of life left in that arm after spending most of his career in the pen)
6. Odalis Perez (lazy but good enough to fill in the 5th spot in a rotation)
7. Tom Glavine (not sure he's gonna get that many guys out in '09)
8. Andy Pettitte (same as Glavine, especially if back in the AL East)
9. Kris Benson (I'd give him an incentive laden deal to prove he's healthy)
10. Mark Mulder (same as Benson)
How could you leave out Pedro?
Well, I did that on purpose to give him his own section...
SOMEBODY NEEDS TO MAKE PEDRO THEIR CLOSER!!!
Look, he's younger than Trevor Hoffman and he has more pitches too, so why not?
He's never going to be able to stay healthy as a starter (just look at 2006-2008) but he has shown a few things over those three seasons:
1) He still misses a lot of bats (256 K's in 269 2/3 IP)
2) He still has control
3) He can still reach back for a little extra on the fastball, but only on occasion
This guy could close for 4-5 years if he's willing and someone gives him a chance. This guy has four quality pitches, he's a strike thrower AND he has no fear.
Put it all together and it spells "C-L-O-S-E-R"
KW
Friday, January 23, 2009
Early 2009 Power Rankings #27
Time for yet another installment of TBG's early 2009 Power Rankings. You can find #'s 28, 29 and 30 below...
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
27. Washington Nationals
These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.
I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.
Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.
In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.
LINEUP
According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes
There is some potential there...
Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.
Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.
Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...
Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.
Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.
Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.
Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.
As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester
Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.
Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.
Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.
The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.
Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.
CL. Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.
Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.
OVERVIEW
The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.
The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).
This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
27. Washington Nationals
These guys could easily be 30th on the list but I've given them the benefit of the doubt because I think they're a little better than the Padres, Mariners and Pirates. But only a little.
I'm not sure what's been up with Jim Bowden lately but he seems to have an outfield fetish. Lastings Milledge, Josh Willingham, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson, etc.
Strange, very strange. I'm sure they'll get rid of 2-3 of those guys during Spring Training but it seemed like everytime I looked up the Nats were either signing, re-signing or trading for another OF.
In all honesty, the Nats aren't that far from being a decent team. What they're lacking, however, are the pieces that are most difficult to acquire - All-Star caliber players. They made a strong effort on Mark Teixeira this offseason so it's clear they recognize they're missing a couple of key pieces, but I'd also argue that they need a true #1 starter as well.
LINEUP
According to the Nationals official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jesus Flores
1B. Nick Johnson
2B. Anderson Hernandez
3B. Ryan Zimmerman
SS. Cristian Guzman
LF. Josh Willingham
CF. Lastings Milledge
RF. Elijah Dukes
There is some potential there...
Zimmerman is an emerging star. Everyone knows he's really good but I think he'll be a regular All-Star if he can stay healthy. In fact, I think he'll hit 35 HR's and drive in 100+ this year - if he avoids the DL.
Nick Johnson can hit when he's healthy enough to play, which is never. I'm pulling for the guy. He's bound to have a healthy season at some point, isn't he? If he does - and if he's not traded - his presence makes the lineup a lot stronger.
Milledge hasn't blown anyone's doors off yet but I think he'll improve in '09. Worst case - he's the offensive equivalent to Mike Cameron. Dukes is very intriguing to me - power, speed, patience - but we need to see him do it over a whole season. In 460 career at-bats he has 23 HR and 83 walks. Could be a breakout season for him, if he stays healthy and out of trouble.
Notice a trend here? Lots of "ifs" with the Nats, which is why they're ranked #27...
Willingham is a professional hitter but those back problems scare me. After he came back from the DL last year he didn't hit at all. "If" healthy, he provides a good amount of offense. Guzman isn't a bad player either. He makes contact and will hit for average, though he never walks, doesn't have any power and doesn't run well anymore. Good glove man too, which helps.
Flores is a serviceable catcher who has a little bit of pop - with the stress on "little" - and who does a fine job behind the plate. Not sure if he's an everyday player at this point but it looks like we'll find out. Hernandez didn't hit a lick at Triple-A last year but he did hit .301 down there in '07 and has been tearing it up in the Dominican Winter League (.365/.406/.531) so maybe he'll be something.
Of course, the Nats also have Ronnie Belliard. He almost never enters a season as the starter at 2B but somehow, some way he always seems to wind up getting the most time. Talented guy who just doesn't work hard enough on his body.
Austin Kearns, Wily Mo Pena, Willie Harris, Corey Patterson and Dmitri Young could also be factors. Kearns hasn't hit in a long time, however, and I have a feeling he could be released if he has a bad spring. Pena has light-tower power but may be nothing more than a platoon guy at this stage of his career. Harris is a great bench player with some offensive ability, some speed and the ability to play infield and outfield. Patterson and Young, well, they're has beens. Wouldn't mind Patterson as a 5th OF or Young as a pinch-hitter but I wouldn't want either to play regularly.
As far as prospects go, nobody's close. 1B Chris Marrero has big power potential but needs to stay healthy and is probably at least a year or two away. OF Michael Burgess also has a ton of pop in his bat but he's a year or two away as well. Not sure I buy into Roger Bernadina as a "prospect" but he can run.
PITCHING
Once again, referring to the Nationals' website:
1. John Lannan
2. Scott Olsen
3. Daniel Cabrera
4. Shawn Hill
5. Colin Balester
Those might not be household names but that is a decent group.
Lannan is an underrated pitcher who can take a big step forward in '09 if he cuts down on the walks. His 3.95 ERA in 37 career games isn't bad. Olsen is a talented guy who hasn't reached his full potential yet - he's got the stuff of a #2/#3 starter if he can't pull it all together (including off-field stuff). Cabrera has one of the best arms around but he's not as much a "pitcher" as he is a "thrower." With his ability, however, he's definitely worth taking a chance on. I actually think he'd be a good late inning reliever, but that's just me.
Hill has durability issues but can be a decent 4th/5th starter when healthy. Balester is just 22 years-old, but the 6'5" right hander has plenty of potential. He could be their 3rd best starter this season. He's guy the stuff and the make-up to be a good starter for a good long time.
The Nats also have Shairon Martis and Jason Bergmann around as depth. Bergmann would make a decent reliever if you ask me.
Prospects Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman are close - very close, in fact - to being big league ready. Zimmerman looks like a future #1/#2 starter to me - he's got great stuff, a big fastball and good command. I'd be surprised if he doesn't make it to the big leagues at some point this season. Detwiler had a down season in '08 but he's better than the numbers show.
CL. Joel Hanrahan
Hanrahan has finally found his niche in the big leagues. He was a bit of a surprise last season as he emerged to become the Nats' closer but he's got more than enough arm for the job. It will be interesting to see how he does in '09.
Saul Rivera is a nice setup man but other than those two I don't see many relief arms the Nats can count on for sure. Maybe they try to find another Hanrahan or two by converting a couple of starters into relievers.
OVERVIEW
The Nationals have the ability to become more competitive this season but they're not going to make any real noise. Lots of health questions to answer and if they're all answered in the positive then this team could really improve.
The truth is, however, that they're at least 2 years from being the kind of team that could push toward the top of the NL East. They need to find another impact hitter (either developed from within or from outside) and they absolutely need to have a true #1 starter (Zimmerman?).
This year, however, they'll have to settle for being more competitive.
KW
Thursday, January 22, 2009
TGB Top 100 Prospects - commentary
Just a word of advice...
Criticism means so little when it is done anonymously...
Got this comment today on my Top 100 Prospects list:
"Anonymous said...
bahaha this list is a joke.Lars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
January 22, 2009 4:27 PM "
My response:
"Wheels said...
Boy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people."Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.Check it out for yourself.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html
Rating prospects is not a science my man.By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
January 22, 2009 5:09 PM "
Not picking on Baseball America - they are absolutely THE BEST when it comes to prospect rankings and draft information. THE BEST, period, without peer.
Just using BA to illustrate that this is not an exact science. Ripping a list - any list- at this point is silly. Question me all you want, but use your head (AND YOUR NAME) when doing so.
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects list here, FYI:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html?showComment=1232665740000#c3040229003897727336
Criticism means so little when it is done anonymously...
Got this comment today on my Top 100 Prospects list:
"Anonymous said...
bahaha this list is a joke.Lars Anderson is ranked in top 10 on EVERY top prospect list, except yours.And Tommy Hansen at 7? Give me a break...
January 22, 2009 4:27 PM "
My response:
"Wheels said...
Boy, those pot shots are really meaningful coming from "anonymous". Guess my list being different shows you I'm thinking independantly of other people."Everyone" had Joel Guzman and Andy Marte rated in the Top 10 back in '05. And those same "everyones" had Jonathan Papelbon rated in the 90's.Check it out for yourself.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/features/040228top1001.html
Rating prospects is not a science my man.By the way, where can I get your Top 100? I'd like to compare it to mine in three years. Of course, then you couldn't be "anonymous" anymore.
January 22, 2009 5:09 PM "
Not picking on Baseball America - they are absolutely THE BEST when it comes to prospect rankings and draft information. THE BEST, period, without peer.
Just using BA to illustrate that this is not an exact science. Ripping a list - any list- at this point is silly. Question me all you want, but use your head (AND YOUR NAME) when doing so.
The Baseball Gods Top 100 Prospects list here, FYI:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/2009-top-100-prospects-rankings-only.html?showComment=1232665740000#c3040229003897727336
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
This is why the Royals are the Royals...
The Royals avoided arbitration with C John Buck, agreeing to a 1-year $2.9 million contract.
What's so terrible about that?
First of all, I just want to say this isn't a pot-shot at John Buck. I think $2.9 million is a fair salary for him, if you're going to play him full-time over the course of the season.
This is, however, a pot-shot at the Royals organization.
Why pay Buck $2.9 million and Olivo $2.7 million to be the SAME PLAYER.
2008:
Buck - .669 OPS, 370 AB
Olivo - .720 OPS, 306 AB
3-Year Average:
Buck - .708 OPS, 368 AB
Olivo - .701 OPS, 396 AB
Okay, so you're a team that has limited financial resources and you're going to pay two guys to produce the exact same numbers and have them split time?
Why not just pick one and let him play 130 games while having a cheap back up to spell the regular every so often?
Both Buck and Olivo are solid defensive catchers so you're not going to hurt yourself all that much no matter who you go with. Pick one and be done with it.
They'd be better off saving the money from one of them to sign draft picks if they're not able to put it toward an improvement elsewhere.
While I'm at it, here are some other players the Royals are wasting money on (guys who can certainly play but who aren't worth the money to this team):
Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million):
$4+ million a year for an inconsistent setup man?
Ron Mahay ($4 million):
Good player but why is he worth that money on a last place team?
Ross Gload ($1.9 million):
Nice bench player but the Royals use him too much and pay too much for what he should be.
Horacio Ramirez ($1.8 million):
Did they see this guy pitch last year? Was he worth signing at all?
Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million):
How many utility players do the Royals need, exactly?
That doesn't even count Mike Jacobs, who will make between $2.75 million (team arbitration number) and $3.8 million (his arbitration number) and occupy a spot that could go to Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy for a lot less money. Jacobs is solid but, again, not worth that kind of money to this particular team.
They could have another premium player or two if they weren't so enthralled with paying so much to have spare parts around. What's wrong with using guys making the league minimum as your backups when you're a low budget, last place club?
You don't get better by adding bench players, you get better by adding starting quality players.
KW
What's so terrible about that?
First of all, I just want to say this isn't a pot-shot at John Buck. I think $2.9 million is a fair salary for him, if you're going to play him full-time over the course of the season.
This is, however, a pot-shot at the Royals organization.
Why pay Buck $2.9 million and Olivo $2.7 million to be the SAME PLAYER.
2008:
Buck - .669 OPS, 370 AB
Olivo - .720 OPS, 306 AB
3-Year Average:
Buck - .708 OPS, 368 AB
Olivo - .701 OPS, 396 AB
Okay, so you're a team that has limited financial resources and you're going to pay two guys to produce the exact same numbers and have them split time?
Why not just pick one and let him play 130 games while having a cheap back up to spell the regular every so often?
Both Buck and Olivo are solid defensive catchers so you're not going to hurt yourself all that much no matter who you go with. Pick one and be done with it.
They'd be better off saving the money from one of them to sign draft picks if they're not able to put it toward an improvement elsewhere.
While I'm at it, here are some other players the Royals are wasting money on (guys who can certainly play but who aren't worth the money to this team):
Kyle Farnsworth ($4.25 million):
$4+ million a year for an inconsistent setup man?
Ron Mahay ($4 million):
Good player but why is he worth that money on a last place team?
Ross Gload ($1.9 million):
Nice bench player but the Royals use him too much and pay too much for what he should be.
Horacio Ramirez ($1.8 million):
Did they see this guy pitch last year? Was he worth signing at all?
Willie Bloomquist ($1.4 million):
How many utility players do the Royals need, exactly?
That doesn't even count Mike Jacobs, who will make between $2.75 million (team arbitration number) and $3.8 million (his arbitration number) and occupy a spot that could go to Kila Ka'aihue or Ryan Shealy for a lot less money. Jacobs is solid but, again, not worth that kind of money to this particular team.
They could have another premium player or two if they weren't so enthralled with paying so much to have spare parts around. What's wrong with using guys making the league minimum as your backups when you're a low budget, last place club?
You don't get better by adding bench players, you get better by adding starting quality players.
KW
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Early 2009 Power Rankings #28
Time for another installment of The Baseball Gods' early Power Rankings. You can find #29 (Seattle) and #30 (San Diego) lower on the page.
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
And away we go...
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm always pretty hard on the Pirates because they've been so horribly mismanaged over the last 10-12 season but I'm willing to give GM Neal Huntington some time to turn things around before I start blasting his decisions.
That said, there really isn't a lot to like about the Buccos in 2009.
Too much payroll wasted on players who aren't productive enough and too little emphasis on the big picture. Some of their higher-end salary players are good big leaguers but they're just not going to be around when the Pirates can compete again. So why keep them?
Again, I'll give Huntington and his staff the benefit of the doubt because they're still relatively new to all this but they have a chance to show some guts this season by getting rid of their big contracts, adding more prospects, and building long-term.
LINEUP
According to the Pirates' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ryan Doumit
1B. Adam LaRoche
2B. Freddy Sanchez
3B. Andy LaRoche
SS. Jack Wilson
LF. Brandon Moss
CF. Nate McLouth
RF. Steve Pearce
Okay, here's the problem with the Pirates - they have $20 million tied up in Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez in '09, which will be 40-45% of their payroll if my math is correct. Those three guys combined for a .727 OPS last season w/ a .271 average, 35 HR and 159 RBI in 1,366 AB.
At those rates in a 550 at-bat season a player would hit .271 with 14 HR, 64 RBI and that same .727 OPS - all that for an average of nearly $7 million a year.
And you wonder why the Pirates finish at the bottom each year. Their three highest paid players combined average out to a mediocre middle infielder offensively. I'd trade all three of them for a big bag of nothing just to save the money.
Seriously.
They're all solid players but not in this situation for the salaries they make. They're role players, not core players.
Doumit is a really good hitting catcher and a valuable asset, so I like him. Andy LaRoche has lots of power potential and he's cheap, so I'd have no problem giving him 500 AB's to see what he can do until Pedro Alvarez is ready. I'm intrigued by Moss as well and think he could be a decent contributor as a 6th/7th hitter in the lineup, plus he's cheap. Pearce has power and deserves a chance to get some regular at-bats.
McLouth is the interesting guy in the bunch. He's getting closer to where he's gonna get some big bucks based on what he did in '08 but he's also the team's best all-around player entering '09. Hard to say they should trade him sometime this season but that depends on what he brings in return I suppose. For now it's probably wise to see if he can duplicate what he did last season.
Neil Walker is a guy I'd like to see get an opportunity as well, perhaps by trading off Adam LaRoche and putting the young switch-hitter there.
With Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jose Tabata waiting in the wings the Buccos could get a nice boost in talent here soon. I'd be planning on building around those guys, Doumit and McLouth with everyone else on the trade block.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Pirates' official website for the rotation and closer...
1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Ross Ohelndorf
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Zach Duke
There is a chance, hard as it may be to believe, that this rotation will be better than it was in '08. I think Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke are all better than their '08 numbers indicate. Snell is very talented but needs to find consistency if he's going to live up to his contract.
I like Maholm, who seems to get better each season. He's not a #1 starter - nobody on this team is - but he's solid. Gorzelanny and Duke were awful last season but there is hope - Gorzelanny went 14-10 w/ a 3.89 ERA in '07 and Duke was 10-15 w/ a 4.48 ERA in 200+ innings in '06. If they combine for a 4.50 ERA or lower this season and give the team 180-200 innings each then they'll be solid 4th/5th starters.
The strange one here is Ohlendorf. Why is he listed as the #3 starter? Weird. Guy posts a 6.00+ ERA as a starter AND as a reliever last season and the Pirates' website projects him as the 3rd starter? M'kay. Not buying that.
Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait are filler guys, nothing more, and I'm not sure what prospect Brad Lincoln is at this point.
CL. Matt Capps
He's solid and if healthy will do a fine job of closing games. The Pirates actually have some intriguing guys in the bullpen - John Grabow, Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Sean Burnett, etc. - but if the lineup doesn't produce and the rotation isn't way better than it was last season then none of it will matter.
OVERVIEW
Neal Huntington has his work cut out for him and with the right moves he just might be able to set this team up to be more competitive in 2010. The money they're spending on the infielders (not counting Andy LaRoche) would be better served if it were consolidated into one impact player. Someone like, oh I don't know, Jason Bay.
There are some talented hitters on the way so if they play their cards right, and those young players live up to expectations, then the Pirates just might be able to start thinking about moving up in the standings in a year.
Just not this year.
KW
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
And away we go...
28. Pittsburgh Pirates
I'm always pretty hard on the Pirates because they've been so horribly mismanaged over the last 10-12 season but I'm willing to give GM Neal Huntington some time to turn things around before I start blasting his decisions.
That said, there really isn't a lot to like about the Buccos in 2009.
Too much payroll wasted on players who aren't productive enough and too little emphasis on the big picture. Some of their higher-end salary players are good big leaguers but they're just not going to be around when the Pirates can compete again. So why keep them?
Again, I'll give Huntington and his staff the benefit of the doubt because they're still relatively new to all this but they have a chance to show some guts this season by getting rid of their big contracts, adding more prospects, and building long-term.
LINEUP
According to the Pirates' official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Ryan Doumit
1B. Adam LaRoche
2B. Freddy Sanchez
3B. Andy LaRoche
SS. Jack Wilson
LF. Brandon Moss
CF. Nate McLouth
RF. Steve Pearce
Okay, here's the problem with the Pirates - they have $20 million tied up in Jack Wilson, Adam LaRoche and Freddy Sanchez in '09, which will be 40-45% of their payroll if my math is correct. Those three guys combined for a .727 OPS last season w/ a .271 average, 35 HR and 159 RBI in 1,366 AB.
At those rates in a 550 at-bat season a player would hit .271 with 14 HR, 64 RBI and that same .727 OPS - all that for an average of nearly $7 million a year.
And you wonder why the Pirates finish at the bottom each year. Their three highest paid players combined average out to a mediocre middle infielder offensively. I'd trade all three of them for a big bag of nothing just to save the money.
Seriously.
They're all solid players but not in this situation for the salaries they make. They're role players, not core players.
Doumit is a really good hitting catcher and a valuable asset, so I like him. Andy LaRoche has lots of power potential and he's cheap, so I'd have no problem giving him 500 AB's to see what he can do until Pedro Alvarez is ready. I'm intrigued by Moss as well and think he could be a decent contributor as a 6th/7th hitter in the lineup, plus he's cheap. Pearce has power and deserves a chance to get some regular at-bats.
McLouth is the interesting guy in the bunch. He's getting closer to where he's gonna get some big bucks based on what he did in '08 but he's also the team's best all-around player entering '09. Hard to say they should trade him sometime this season but that depends on what he brings in return I suppose. For now it's probably wise to see if he can duplicate what he did last season.
Neil Walker is a guy I'd like to see get an opportunity as well, perhaps by trading off Adam LaRoche and putting the young switch-hitter there.
With Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen and maybe Jose Tabata waiting in the wings the Buccos could get a nice boost in talent here soon. I'd be planning on building around those guys, Doumit and McLouth with everyone else on the trade block.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Pirates' official website for the rotation and closer...
1. Paul Maholm
2. Ian Snell
3. Ross Ohelndorf
4. Tom Gorzelanny
5. Zach Duke
There is a chance, hard as it may be to believe, that this rotation will be better than it was in '08. I think Snell, Gorzelanny and Duke are all better than their '08 numbers indicate. Snell is very talented but needs to find consistency if he's going to live up to his contract.
I like Maholm, who seems to get better each season. He's not a #1 starter - nobody on this team is - but he's solid. Gorzelanny and Duke were awful last season but there is hope - Gorzelanny went 14-10 w/ a 3.89 ERA in '07 and Duke was 10-15 w/ a 4.48 ERA in 200+ innings in '06. If they combine for a 4.50 ERA or lower this season and give the team 180-200 innings each then they'll be solid 4th/5th starters.
The strange one here is Ohlendorf. Why is he listed as the #3 starter? Weird. Guy posts a 6.00+ ERA as a starter AND as a reliever last season and the Pirates' website projects him as the 3rd starter? M'kay. Not buying that.
Jeff Karstens and Phil Dumatrait are filler guys, nothing more, and I'm not sure what prospect Brad Lincoln is at this point.
CL. Matt Capps
He's solid and if healthy will do a fine job of closing games. The Pirates actually have some intriguing guys in the bullpen - John Grabow, Denny Bautista, Craig Hansen, Sean Burnett, etc. - but if the lineup doesn't produce and the rotation isn't way better than it was last season then none of it will matter.
OVERVIEW
Neal Huntington has his work cut out for him and with the right moves he just might be able to set this team up to be more competitive in 2010. The money they're spending on the infielders (not counting Andy LaRoche) would be better served if it were consolidated into one impact player. Someone like, oh I don't know, Jason Bay.
There are some talented hitters on the way so if they play their cards right, and those young players live up to expectations, then the Pirates just might be able to start thinking about moving up in the standings in a year.
Just not this year.
KW
Monday, January 19, 2009
"The Tale of Todd Wellemeyer"
In case anyone missed it today, the Cardinals gave Todd Wellemeyer a $4.05 million contract for 2009 and avoided an arbitration hearing.
The news of the deal got me to thinking...
How in the hell did the Cubs, Marlins and Royals just flat out give up on this guy?
Here's a big, strapping right handed pitcher who can reach the mid 90's with his fastball to go along with a pretty good slider and you've got three teams that wash their hands of him in 2-year span?
The funny thing is - well, not so funny for the teams that gave up on - that he'd be doing in his thing as a starter in the minors and then he'd get called up to the big leagues and immediately be stuck in the bullpen, a place he'd never worked before.
In 107 career minor league games Wellemeyer appeared as a reliever just 10 times.
And people were confused to the point where they gave up on a talented (cheap) young pitcher?
Sometimes the decision makers on big league teams confuse the hell out of me.
Wellemeyer was never a superb minor league pitcher - control problems, difficulty getting past the 5th inning, etc. - but he was always a very gifted player. Was the Royals' rotation in 2007 really so crowded they couldn't find a way to work this guy into the mix?
Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and the Cardinals took a shot on this guy, put him in his natural role and look at what he's done...
13-9 w/ a solid 3.72 ERA in 191 2/3 IP last season, 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts w/ the Cards in '07.
So, 16-10 w/ an ERA around 3.70 in 43 big league starts.
Not bad for a guy picked up off the Royals' scrap heap.
Ah, they're so loaded they'll never miss him....
KW
The news of the deal got me to thinking...
How in the hell did the Cubs, Marlins and Royals just flat out give up on this guy?
Here's a big, strapping right handed pitcher who can reach the mid 90's with his fastball to go along with a pretty good slider and you've got three teams that wash their hands of him in 2-year span?
The funny thing is - well, not so funny for the teams that gave up on - that he'd be doing in his thing as a starter in the minors and then he'd get called up to the big leagues and immediately be stuck in the bullpen, a place he'd never worked before.
In 107 career minor league games Wellemeyer appeared as a reliever just 10 times.
And people were confused to the point where they gave up on a talented (cheap) young pitcher?
Sometimes the decision makers on big league teams confuse the hell out of me.
Wellemeyer was never a superb minor league pitcher - control problems, difficulty getting past the 5th inning, etc. - but he was always a very gifted player. Was the Royals' rotation in 2007 really so crowded they couldn't find a way to work this guy into the mix?
Tony LaRussa, Dave Duncan and the Cardinals took a shot on this guy, put him in his natural role and look at what he's done...
13-9 w/ a solid 3.72 ERA in 191 2/3 IP last season, 3-1 with a 3.65 ERA in 11 starts w/ the Cards in '07.
So, 16-10 w/ an ERA around 3.70 in 43 big league starts.
Not bad for a guy picked up off the Royals' scrap heap.
Ah, they're so loaded they'll never miss him....
KW
Sunday, January 18, 2009
O's pull fast one on Cubs
Okay, they "took" a fast one from the Cubs...
The O's sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubbies for OF Felix Pie and said they plan on Pie being their everyday LF with Luke Scott getting most of his time at DH and Aubrey Huff becoming the primary starter at 1B.
Nice move by the Birds.
I like Pie and think the Cubs gave up on him way too soon. The guy is 23 years-old (turns 24 Feb. 8), he hits for average, has some pop, has plenty of speed, he can throw and he's cheap. Nice combo if you ask me.
The Cubs should have given him a much longer, more consistent look in the big leagues than they did. Here's a guy that hit .300 with 34 HR and 37 SB over 1,123 Triple-A at-bats in his career and he did that at the ages of 21-22-23.
Why give up on that guy?
Well, maybe there is some method to the apparent madness...
The Jake Peavy rumors won't quit and there has been word leaked out over months that indicates Olson could be a guy that interests the Padres. He was awful last season (9-10, 6.65 ERA in 26 big league starts) and probably doesn't have a ton of upside, but a move to Petco Park might turn him into a solid, cheap 4th starter in very short order.
If this leads to a deal that brings Peavy to Chicago then my negative feelings about the Cubs giving up on Pie too soon will be withdrawn.
Either way, this is a great move for Baltimore. Suddenly they have a 3-man OF with tools galore that will provide outstanding defense now and in the future. Also, don't discount Pie as a potential 20-HR guy playing at Camden Yards.
He won't walk much but he'll catch the ball, keep base runners from taking liberties and he'll be a 20-20 threat at some point, IMO.
KW
The O's sent lefty Garrett Olson and righty Henry Williamson to the Cubbies for OF Felix Pie and said they plan on Pie being their everyday LF with Luke Scott getting most of his time at DH and Aubrey Huff becoming the primary starter at 1B.
Nice move by the Birds.
I like Pie and think the Cubs gave up on him way too soon. The guy is 23 years-old (turns 24 Feb. 8), he hits for average, has some pop, has plenty of speed, he can throw and he's cheap. Nice combo if you ask me.
The Cubs should have given him a much longer, more consistent look in the big leagues than they did. Here's a guy that hit .300 with 34 HR and 37 SB over 1,123 Triple-A at-bats in his career and he did that at the ages of 21-22-23.
Why give up on that guy?
Well, maybe there is some method to the apparent madness...
The Jake Peavy rumors won't quit and there has been word leaked out over months that indicates Olson could be a guy that interests the Padres. He was awful last season (9-10, 6.65 ERA in 26 big league starts) and probably doesn't have a ton of upside, but a move to Petco Park might turn him into a solid, cheap 4th starter in very short order.
If this leads to a deal that brings Peavy to Chicago then my negative feelings about the Cubs giving up on Pie too soon will be withdrawn.
Either way, this is a great move for Baltimore. Suddenly they have a 3-man OF with tools galore that will provide outstanding defense now and in the future. Also, don't discount Pie as a potential 20-HR guy playing at Camden Yards.
He won't walk much but he'll catch the ball, keep base runners from taking liberties and he'll be a 20-20 threat at some point, IMO.
KW
Thursday, January 15, 2009
Update on #30 Padres
Just in case you're wondering, the addition of David Eckstein to play 2B does nothing to get the Padres out of the basement of The Baseball Gods Preseason Power Rankings.
Nor would the signing of Omar Vizquel.
What are they thinking out there? Are they trying to have the least powerful middle infield of all-time?
Paging Mr. Vizquel, Mr. Omar Vizquel. Mario Mendoza is waiting in the lobby and he would like his bat back...
KW
Nor would the signing of Omar Vizquel.
What are they thinking out there? Are they trying to have the least powerful middle infield of all-time?
Paging Mr. Vizquel, Mr. Omar Vizquel. Mario Mendoza is waiting in the lobby and he would like his bat back...
KW
Thinking Out Loud - Jan. 15
Michael Young accepts move to 3B
Checking in from the Blues-Avalanche game. Well, the pre-game anyway. One of my many duties for KMOX is covering the Blues - we're their radio rights-holder - but I've got a few minutes before the game starts and just noticed an update on the Michael Young situation in Texas....
Apparently he decided to heed my words, suck it up and accept the move to third base.
Okay, that's definitely not true. One way or another, Young has done the right thing here. The Rangers are paying him a lot of money over the next five years and the least he can do is be a team player.
Glad to see that's he's found religion on this subject....
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090115&content_id=3745615&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex&partnerId=rss_tex
Free Agent starter I really, really like for an NL team...
Jon Garland.
He's made at least 32 starts in each of the last 7 seasons.
He's pitched at least 191 innings in each of the last 7 seasons (topping 200 4 times).
He's 106-89 for his career and has pitched on contending teams for the last 4-5 seasons.
His career ERA is 4.47, which isn't that bad when you consider that most of that time was spent pitching in hitter-friendly US Cellular Field on the South Side of Chicago.
He's also just 29 years-old and won't turn 30 until the end of September 2009.
Note: My recommendation is for a NATIONAL LEAGUE team to sign him. No DH, none of that.
Hello? Cardinals? Dodgers? Mets? Anyone looking for a starter?
Prediction: If Garland signs with an NL team not in Philadelphia, Cincinnati or Colorado he'll win 13-16 games, post an ERA between 3.70-4.10 and log 200+ innings.
That is all for now...
KW
Checking in from the Blues-Avalanche game. Well, the pre-game anyway. One of my many duties for KMOX is covering the Blues - we're their radio rights-holder - but I've got a few minutes before the game starts and just noticed an update on the Michael Young situation in Texas....
Apparently he decided to heed my words, suck it up and accept the move to third base.
Okay, that's definitely not true. One way or another, Young has done the right thing here. The Rangers are paying him a lot of money over the next five years and the least he can do is be a team player.
Glad to see that's he's found religion on this subject....
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090115&content_id=3745615&vkey=news_tex&fext=.jsp&c_id=tex&partnerId=rss_tex
Free Agent starter I really, really like for an NL team...
Jon Garland.
He's made at least 32 starts in each of the last 7 seasons.
He's pitched at least 191 innings in each of the last 7 seasons (topping 200 4 times).
He's 106-89 for his career and has pitched on contending teams for the last 4-5 seasons.
His career ERA is 4.47, which isn't that bad when you consider that most of that time was spent pitching in hitter-friendly US Cellular Field on the South Side of Chicago.
He's also just 29 years-old and won't turn 30 until the end of September 2009.
Note: My recommendation is for a NATIONAL LEAGUE team to sign him. No DH, none of that.
Hello? Cardinals? Dodgers? Mets? Anyone looking for a starter?
Prediction: If Garland signs with an NL team not in Philadelphia, Cincinnati or Colorado he'll win 13-16 games, post an ERA between 3.70-4.10 and log 200+ innings.
That is all for now...
KW
Early 2009 Power Rankings #29
For those who haven't seen #30 yet, check it out here:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-early-power-rankings-30.html
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
Now back to the countdown...
29. Seattle Mariners
Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to baseball's most disappointing team in 2008 - the Seattle Mariners!
Can you imagine spending $117 million on a team to win 61 games?
I don't know whether that's hysterical or just pathetic. Okay, it's both.
There's a new regime in place in the Great Northwest for 2009 so maybe they'll be able to turn things around at some point but they have one hell of a crater to dig themselves out of. Lots of bad contracts, very little offensive punch and not much available in terms of prospects ready to make a big league impact. I wish them luck...
LINEUP
According to the Mariners official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jeff Clement
1B. Bryan LaHair
2B. Jose Lopez
3B. Adrian Beltre
SS. Yuniesky Betancourt
LF. Endy Chavez
CF. Franklin Gutierrez
RF. Ichiro Suzuki
DH. Russell Branyan
Now, I'm not sure that's exactly what the lineup will look like on Opening Day but I do know that whatever changes might come this club isn't exactly in position to snag a top tier free agent. Only the Oakland A's scored fewer runs than the Mariners in the AL last season. The A's went out and added Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to their lineup while the Mariners watched their best hitter from '08, Raul Ibanez, leave via free agency.
Kenji Johjima will play some because he's getting paid too much to be a pure backup. I'm sure the team would like Wladimir Balentien to win the LF job over Chavez but his .592 OPS w/ a strikeout every third at-bat in '08 didn't exactly inspire confidence. Maybe Mike Carp pushes LaHair at 1B, but in all honesty, what's the difference between the two?
The only guy in the lineup with proven Major League power is Beltre and he's inconsistent. Lopez is okay but not a force by any means. Clement has potential to be a solid power guy but making contact at the big league level has been a bit of a challenge for him so far. I thought Gutierrez was a bit of a sleeper heading into '08 but he stunk out the joint - not sure what to make of him for '09. Betancourt is a good glove man but doesn't bring much to the plate aside from the ability to make weak contact (.692 OPS).
That leaves Chavez, LaHair, Branyan and Ichiro to round out the lineup. Chavez is a 4th/5th OF, LaHair doesn't have enough power to be an everyday 1B in the big leagues (though Carp might). Branyan is a Quadruple-A player who is best served playing only a couple of times a week.
Ichiro is the team's only true offensive star but he's 35 years-old and it's beginning to look like he won't be around to see the next Mariners' contender. Maybe they should entertain the thought of trading him at some point during the '09 season. The only problem with that is their owner is Japanese and wants Ichiro for marketing purposes both in Seattle and back in Japan. I bet he'd bring a pretty nice return in a trade, though.
The rest of the bad news - none of the team's top prospects are nearly ready to jump into the mix. Matt Tuiasosopo is a decent-but-not-great prospect who made some strides at Triple-A last year, so maybe he can take over at 3B if they trade Beltre but he's not exactly a "can't miss" guy. Clement is already here. OF's Greg Halman and Michael Saunders need more time, as does stud IF prospect Carlos Triunfel. C Adam Moore might be someone to keep an eye on. OF Dennis Raben has top-end power but hasn't played much pro ball yet, so he'll need some time.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Mariners' official website for the rotation and closer:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith
They list Brandon Morrow as the 6th starter, which is actually pretty hard to believe. He either makes the rotation this year or winds up being their closer, period. He's too good for anything else.
King Felix is a star and he would be a top end starter in just about any rotation. Love him. I'm also a bigger fan of Bedard than most. People seem to be really down on him right now but he's got excellent stuff and I won't write him off just yet.
Washburn's an okay 4th/5th starter but $9.5 million is too much to pay him. Silva flat out stinks. It sounds like hindsight (though I said it loud and clear at the time), but his contract is one of the worst in baseball history. He was erratic in Minnesota, he doesn't miss many bats and there are simply too many guys who there who can do what he does to justify that 4-year, $48 million contract. Brutal.
Rowland-Smith is interesting - live arm and some success at the end of last season in the big leagues - but not a known commodity. While Morrow has amazing talent, I actually like him finishing games better than I like him as a starter. He can be a lights-out closer for the next 10 years if they use him in that role.
Prospects Phillipe Aumont and Juan Ramirez are talented but not ready for prime time entering 2009.
CL. Aaron Heilman
Actually, the Mariners' website lists Roy Corcoran atop the list of relievers but I find it hard to believe he'll be finishing games. Check that - I find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe he'll be finishing games.
If Morrow isn't going to close, Heilman's the right guy to start off with. Miguel Batista has had some success finishing games in his career (another horrible contract, by the way) and maybe he can get into the mix there too. I also like Mark Lowe's arm but I don't think he's closer material just yet.
The way I'd do it if I were in manager Don Wakamatsu's shoes would be to have Morrow closing games with Heilman and Batista working as starters in Spring Training. That way if Bedard isn't going to be ready, or if Rowland-Smith takes a step back, one of them can start with the other returning to a setup role.
OVERVIEW
This is an organization that is absolutely floundering at the moment. Maybe the team's new leadership can turn things around but it certainly won't happen overnight. I would advise trading off guys like Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima (if you can) and any starter not named Hernandez or Morrow to build for 2010.
By then some of these players will have answered questions and the team should be in a better position to recover once guys like Triunfel, Raben, Halman, Saunders and Aumont are ready to contribute.
For now, however, they look like the worst team in the AL to me.
KW
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2009/01/2009-early-power-rankings-30.html
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out.
Now back to the countdown...
29. Seattle Mariners
Ladies and gentleman, allow me to introduce you to baseball's most disappointing team in 2008 - the Seattle Mariners!
Can you imagine spending $117 million on a team to win 61 games?
I don't know whether that's hysterical or just pathetic. Okay, it's both.
There's a new regime in place in the Great Northwest for 2009 so maybe they'll be able to turn things around at some point but they have one hell of a crater to dig themselves out of. Lots of bad contracts, very little offensive punch and not much available in terms of prospects ready to make a big league impact. I wish them luck...
LINEUP
According to the Mariners official website, here are their projected starters:
C. Jeff Clement
1B. Bryan LaHair
2B. Jose Lopez
3B. Adrian Beltre
SS. Yuniesky Betancourt
LF. Endy Chavez
CF. Franklin Gutierrez
RF. Ichiro Suzuki
DH. Russell Branyan
Now, I'm not sure that's exactly what the lineup will look like on Opening Day but I do know that whatever changes might come this club isn't exactly in position to snag a top tier free agent. Only the Oakland A's scored fewer runs than the Mariners in the AL last season. The A's went out and added Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi to their lineup while the Mariners watched their best hitter from '08, Raul Ibanez, leave via free agency.
Kenji Johjima will play some because he's getting paid too much to be a pure backup. I'm sure the team would like Wladimir Balentien to win the LF job over Chavez but his .592 OPS w/ a strikeout every third at-bat in '08 didn't exactly inspire confidence. Maybe Mike Carp pushes LaHair at 1B, but in all honesty, what's the difference between the two?
The only guy in the lineup with proven Major League power is Beltre and he's inconsistent. Lopez is okay but not a force by any means. Clement has potential to be a solid power guy but making contact at the big league level has been a bit of a challenge for him so far. I thought Gutierrez was a bit of a sleeper heading into '08 but he stunk out the joint - not sure what to make of him for '09. Betancourt is a good glove man but doesn't bring much to the plate aside from the ability to make weak contact (.692 OPS).
That leaves Chavez, LaHair, Branyan and Ichiro to round out the lineup. Chavez is a 4th/5th OF, LaHair doesn't have enough power to be an everyday 1B in the big leagues (though Carp might). Branyan is a Quadruple-A player who is best served playing only a couple of times a week.
Ichiro is the team's only true offensive star but he's 35 years-old and it's beginning to look like he won't be around to see the next Mariners' contender. Maybe they should entertain the thought of trading him at some point during the '09 season. The only problem with that is their owner is Japanese and wants Ichiro for marketing purposes both in Seattle and back in Japan. I bet he'd bring a pretty nice return in a trade, though.
The rest of the bad news - none of the team's top prospects are nearly ready to jump into the mix. Matt Tuiasosopo is a decent-but-not-great prospect who made some strides at Triple-A last year, so maybe he can take over at 3B if they trade Beltre but he's not exactly a "can't miss" guy. Clement is already here. OF's Greg Halman and Michael Saunders need more time, as does stud IF prospect Carlos Triunfel. C Adam Moore might be someone to keep an eye on. OF Dennis Raben has top-end power but hasn't played much pro ball yet, so he'll need some time.
PITCHING
Once again, deferring to the Mariners' official website for the rotation and closer:
1. Felix Hernandez
2. Erik Bedard
3. Jarrod Washburn
4. Carlos Silva
5. Ryan Rowland-Smith
They list Brandon Morrow as the 6th starter, which is actually pretty hard to believe. He either makes the rotation this year or winds up being their closer, period. He's too good for anything else.
King Felix is a star and he would be a top end starter in just about any rotation. Love him. I'm also a bigger fan of Bedard than most. People seem to be really down on him right now but he's got excellent stuff and I won't write him off just yet.
Washburn's an okay 4th/5th starter but $9.5 million is too much to pay him. Silva flat out stinks. It sounds like hindsight (though I said it loud and clear at the time), but his contract is one of the worst in baseball history. He was erratic in Minnesota, he doesn't miss many bats and there are simply too many guys who there who can do what he does to justify that 4-year, $48 million contract. Brutal.
Rowland-Smith is interesting - live arm and some success at the end of last season in the big leagues - but not a known commodity. While Morrow has amazing talent, I actually like him finishing games better than I like him as a starter. He can be a lights-out closer for the next 10 years if they use him in that role.
Prospects Phillipe Aumont and Juan Ramirez are talented but not ready for prime time entering 2009.
CL. Aaron Heilman
Actually, the Mariners' website lists Roy Corcoran atop the list of relievers but I find it hard to believe he'll be finishing games. Check that - I find it IMPOSSIBLE to believe he'll be finishing games.
If Morrow isn't going to close, Heilman's the right guy to start off with. Miguel Batista has had some success finishing games in his career (another horrible contract, by the way) and maybe he can get into the mix there too. I also like Mark Lowe's arm but I don't think he's closer material just yet.
The way I'd do it if I were in manager Don Wakamatsu's shoes would be to have Morrow closing games with Heilman and Batista working as starters in Spring Training. That way if Bedard isn't going to be ready, or if Rowland-Smith takes a step back, one of them can start with the other returning to a setup role.
OVERVIEW
This is an organization that is absolutely floundering at the moment. Maybe the team's new leadership can turn things around but it certainly won't happen overnight. I would advise trading off guys like Ichiro, Beltre, Lopez, Betancourt, Johjima (if you can) and any starter not named Hernandez or Morrow to build for 2010.
By then some of these players will have answered questions and the team should be in a better position to recover once guys like Triunfel, Raben, Halman, Saunders and Aumont are ready to contribute.
For now, however, they look like the worst team in the AL to me.
KW
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Update on #30 Padres
A couple of days ago I began unveiling my early 2009 Power Rankings by profiling the Padres, my 30th ranked club.
Since then they re-signed Mark Prior, and added IF Chris Burke as well, which obviously caused me to reth........
Uh, no.
Unless he's the 18-6, 2.43 ERA and 246 K Mark Prior from 2003 then nothing changes. Even if by some miracle he is that good, the lineup still stinks.
Nothing more to see here, please move along...
Since then they re-signed Mark Prior, and added IF Chris Burke as well, which obviously caused me to reth........
Uh, no.
Unless he's the 18-6, 2.43 ERA and 246 K Mark Prior from 2003 then nothing changes. Even if by some miracle he is that good, the lineup still stinks.
Nothing more to see here, please move along...
Thinking Out Loud - Jan 14, 2009
Back from the sick bed today w/ thoughts on several stories
Michael Young wants Rangers to trade him
Short version of events: the Rangers decided to move Young from SS to 3B to make room for prospect Elvis Andrus without consulting Young. Young asks to be dealt.
Uh, fat chance my friend.
There is absolutely zero chance that the Rangers will be able to get any kind of fair value in a trade involving Young because of his contract. He gets $16 million a year for the next 5 years (2009-2013) and there just aren't many teams who can absorb that much into their payroll while also giving up quality in return.
It should also be noted that Young's production has slipped a bit over the last three years.
2004 - .313, 22 HR, 99 RBI (.836 OPS)
2005 - .331, 24 HR, 91 RBI (.899 OPS)
2006 - .314, 14 HR, 103 RBI (.815 OPS)
2007 - .315, 9 HR, 94 RBI (.784 OPS)
2008 - .284, 12 HR, 82 RBI (.741 OPS)
I think that .899 OPS in '05 was an abberation but that three-year decline has got to be scary. Other teams might also wonder what those numbers would look like had he not been hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball 81-times a year.
Plus, I seriously doubt the Rangers will be willing to eat a big chunk of that just to accomodate Young's desire to stay in the middle infield.
Hey Mike, what about what's best for your team? You know, the one that's gonna pay you $80 million over the next 5 years...
If moving you to 3B makes the team better, just do it. Stop with the ego-driven soap opera.
The Rangers don't like their other defensive options at 3B (Hank Blalock & Chris Davis) so having a solid glove man (Young) slide over to accomodate another strong glove man (Andrus) is completely logical.
Plus, it makes more sense to shift the 32 year-old veteran to a corner infield spot than it does to move the kid over there.
Suck it up big fella.
Manny still out there - Dodgers, Giants supposedly after him
"You reap what you sow."
See what all this "Manny Being Manny" business has gotten you, Mr. Ramirez?
Even though you're dead-cinch lock Hall of Famer and still one of the best hitters in the game, nobody wants any part of you on a long-term deal because you're a headcase. Especially not at the money you're asking for.
There is no doubt in my mind that Manny would have a 4-year, $100 million offer on the table if he were the kind of player that you never had a question about regarding effort. All the garbage he pulled in Boston last year is kicking him in the rear end this offseason.
Rightfully so.
I like Manny as a player. He's one of the best hitters I've ever seen and he seems like a decent, fun-loving kind of guy. But when you get the rap of being someone who "tanked" it as a means of getting out of town you don't live that down quickly.
Not that Scott Boras needs my advice, but here's some anyway:
Take a 1-year deal for $25 million from the Dodgers, tell your client to go be a good teammate for a full year in LA and then revisit this next offseason when there's a little distance between contract talks and Manny's reindeer games in Boston.
Derek Lowe gets 4-years, $60 million from the Braves
I like Derek Lowe and think he'll be a nice pitcher for the Braves. Seems like a lot of years for a guy who turns 36 in June but with his pitching style it doesn't seem like he'd be one to break down going forward.
The Braves also locked in Kenshin Kawakami, so their rotation depth is good for now.
Now they've got to fix that lineup. Need at least two more bats (CF, LF) IMO.
Kris Benson back in the mix
Word is that his arm feels good and that four teams are interested...
Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers
Cardinals fans would lose their minds if Benson signs in St. Louis. Been down this rehab road too many times recently (Mark Mulder, Matt Clement and at a different level Chris Carpenter).
Might make sense for the Dodgers and the Rangers really wouldn't have much to lose by taking a shot.
Can't see where he'd fit in w/ the D'Backs. They have better in-house options.
Michael Young wants Rangers to trade him
Short version of events: the Rangers decided to move Young from SS to 3B to make room for prospect Elvis Andrus without consulting Young. Young asks to be dealt.
Uh, fat chance my friend.
There is absolutely zero chance that the Rangers will be able to get any kind of fair value in a trade involving Young because of his contract. He gets $16 million a year for the next 5 years (2009-2013) and there just aren't many teams who can absorb that much into their payroll while also giving up quality in return.
It should also be noted that Young's production has slipped a bit over the last three years.
2004 - .313, 22 HR, 99 RBI (.836 OPS)
2005 - .331, 24 HR, 91 RBI (.899 OPS)
2006 - .314, 14 HR, 103 RBI (.815 OPS)
2007 - .315, 9 HR, 94 RBI (.784 OPS)
2008 - .284, 12 HR, 82 RBI (.741 OPS)
I think that .899 OPS in '05 was an abberation but that three-year decline has got to be scary. Other teams might also wonder what those numbers would look like had he not been hitting in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball 81-times a year.
Plus, I seriously doubt the Rangers will be willing to eat a big chunk of that just to accomodate Young's desire to stay in the middle infield.
Hey Mike, what about what's best for your team? You know, the one that's gonna pay you $80 million over the next 5 years...
If moving you to 3B makes the team better, just do it. Stop with the ego-driven soap opera.
The Rangers don't like their other defensive options at 3B (Hank Blalock & Chris Davis) so having a solid glove man (Young) slide over to accomodate another strong glove man (Andrus) is completely logical.
Plus, it makes more sense to shift the 32 year-old veteran to a corner infield spot than it does to move the kid over there.
Suck it up big fella.
Manny still out there - Dodgers, Giants supposedly after him
"You reap what you sow."
See what all this "Manny Being Manny" business has gotten you, Mr. Ramirez?
Even though you're dead-cinch lock Hall of Famer and still one of the best hitters in the game, nobody wants any part of you on a long-term deal because you're a headcase. Especially not at the money you're asking for.
There is no doubt in my mind that Manny would have a 4-year, $100 million offer on the table if he were the kind of player that you never had a question about regarding effort. All the garbage he pulled in Boston last year is kicking him in the rear end this offseason.
Rightfully so.
I like Manny as a player. He's one of the best hitters I've ever seen and he seems like a decent, fun-loving kind of guy. But when you get the rap of being someone who "tanked" it as a means of getting out of town you don't live that down quickly.
Not that Scott Boras needs my advice, but here's some anyway:
Take a 1-year deal for $25 million from the Dodgers, tell your client to go be a good teammate for a full year in LA and then revisit this next offseason when there's a little distance between contract talks and Manny's reindeer games in Boston.
Derek Lowe gets 4-years, $60 million from the Braves
I like Derek Lowe and think he'll be a nice pitcher for the Braves. Seems like a lot of years for a guy who turns 36 in June but with his pitching style it doesn't seem like he'd be one to break down going forward.
The Braves also locked in Kenshin Kawakami, so their rotation depth is good for now.
Now they've got to fix that lineup. Need at least two more bats (CF, LF) IMO.
Kris Benson back in the mix
Word is that his arm feels good and that four teams are interested...
Cardinals, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rangers
Cardinals fans would lose their minds if Benson signs in St. Louis. Been down this rehab road too many times recently (Mark Mulder, Matt Clement and at a different level Chris Carpenter).
Might make sense for the Dodgers and the Rangers really wouldn't have much to lose by taking a shot.
Can't see where he'd fit in w/ the D'Backs. They have better in-house options.
Monday, January 12, 2009
2009 Early Power Rankings - #30
And so it begins...
Even though there are still dozens of relatively big name free agents available it's time to get going with my 2009 Pre-Season Power Rankings. I'll go one team at a time, starting from #30 and working my way up to the top of the list.
The reason I'm doing it this way is simple - the teams at the bottom of my list don't seem to be on the verge of making moves that will have an immediate impact on their teams. The teams in the middle are more likely to make moves that could change their fortunes so my secret list will probably undergo some adjustments over the next 5-6 weeks.
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out. This is just to get the ball rolling.
Time to get down to business...
30. San Diego Padres
Wow. Just wow.
This team is incredibly weak and it would seem that 2009 is nothing more than a building year for Kevin Towers and Co., especially given that the Jake Peavy trade rumors simply refuse to go away.
Lineup
According to the Padres official website, here are their projected starters...
C. Nick Hundley
1B. Adrian Gonzalez
2B. Edgar Gonzalez
3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS. Luis Rodriguez
LF. Chase Headley
CF. Scott Hairston/Jody Gerut
RF. Brian Giles.
Eww. A. Gonzalez is a superstar and Giles is a serviceable offensive player, though he has no business batting leadoff on this team because they have so few people who can drive in runs. After that, nothing excites me.
Hairston and Gerut are fourth outfielders - at best - on a good team. Kouzmanoff has some power and should drive in some runs but his 4-to-1 career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just terrible. E. Gonzalez and Rodriguez are utility men. Hundley hit .237 with 52 strikeouts in 198 at-bats w/ the Pads last year.
Headley is a talented young player with a lot of upside but he's got to make better contact going forward than he did in 2008 (104 K in 331 AB). I like him, though, and expect him to hit 20-25 HR while raising his average, on-base and slugging in '09.
So, what we have here is a team with one legit stud, one middle of the road veteran, one young veteran with some pop and good switch-hitting power prospect and a bunch of roster filler.
This is going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, maybe the lowest, and there isn't much hope of the team making any serious upgrades between now and Opening Day.
2B Matt Antonelli could be a factor as a decent hitting middle infielder. OF Kellen Kulbacki might be ready in late '09 or early '10 but I'd like to see something from him at the upper levels before getting too excited, though he did have a great '08 season. 1B Kyle Blanks is a monster with big-time power but he's not quite ready for the Majors AND he's blocked by the one real star this team has. OF Cedric Hunter has talent but isn't close to being ready.
Pitching
I'll refer to the Padres official website for their rotation and closer...
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Josh Geer
5. Wade LeBlanc
When you consider the possibility - heck, probability - that Peavy will be dealt in the next month this looks like an awful rotation. If he sticks around the Pads have one of the best starters in the National League to call upon every 5th day but I doubt it will do much good.
Young is a nice 2-3 starter when healthy but none of the others are all that inspiring. Geer posted nice numbers in 5 starts for the Pads but don't be fooled - PCL hitters batted .285 against him and his ERA was 4.54 in 28 games (27 starts) at Portland. Baek was once a decent prospect but he turns 29 in May and has just 59 big league games under his belt. LeBlanc is nothing to write home about either. The 24 year-old posted a 5.32 ERA at Triple-A Portland and sported an 8.02 ERA in 5 games (4 starts) for the Padres.
There is definitely room for competition here, though I suspect they'll bring in a veteran or two on Spring Training invites or incentive laden deals. They could also add volume in a Peavy deal but quantity never beats quality in the Majors.
Cesar Carrillo, Mat Latos and Will Inman are worth keeping an eye on in '09. Looks like the Pads will be needing some help.
CL. Heath Bell
Bell was lights out in '07 and the Pads had better hope he reverts to that form in '09. He was pretty good last year, just not as good as the year before. Entering '09 Bell has 2 career saves in 14 opportunities.
Nobody else in the pen does much for me. The league seems to have figured out Cla Meredith, Mike Adams is okay but notthing more and Justin Hampson isn't quite established.
Overview
The Padres have a weak lineup, a paper-thin rotation, a mediocre-at-best bullpen and a farm system with some decent players who don't appear to be Major League ready for the start of '09.
If they're not the worst team in baseball this year they'll be in the bottom three or four for sure.
KW
Even though there are still dozens of relatively big name free agents available it's time to get going with my 2009 Pre-Season Power Rankings. I'll go one team at a time, starting from #30 and working my way up to the top of the list.
The reason I'm doing it this way is simple - the teams at the bottom of my list don't seem to be on the verge of making moves that will have an immediate impact on their teams. The teams in the middle are more likely to make moves that could change their fortunes so my secret list will probably undergo some adjustments over the next 5-6 weeks.
Note: I will have a "final" pre-season set of power rankings ready on Opening Day (along with all of my other predictions), so this is not my "final word" on how things will shake out. This is just to get the ball rolling.
Time to get down to business...
30. San Diego Padres
Wow. Just wow.
This team is incredibly weak and it would seem that 2009 is nothing more than a building year for Kevin Towers and Co., especially given that the Jake Peavy trade rumors simply refuse to go away.
Lineup
According to the Padres official website, here are their projected starters...
C. Nick Hundley
1B. Adrian Gonzalez
2B. Edgar Gonzalez
3B. Kevin Kouzmanoff
SS. Luis Rodriguez
LF. Chase Headley
CF. Scott Hairston/Jody Gerut
RF. Brian Giles.
Eww. A. Gonzalez is a superstar and Giles is a serviceable offensive player, though he has no business batting leadoff on this team because they have so few people who can drive in runs. After that, nothing excites me.
Hairston and Gerut are fourth outfielders - at best - on a good team. Kouzmanoff has some power and should drive in some runs but his 4-to-1 career strikeout-to-walk ratio is just terrible. E. Gonzalez and Rodriguez are utility men. Hundley hit .237 with 52 strikeouts in 198 at-bats w/ the Pads last year.
Headley is a talented young player with a lot of upside but he's got to make better contact going forward than he did in 2008 (104 K in 331 AB). I like him, though, and expect him to hit 20-25 HR while raising his average, on-base and slugging in '09.
So, what we have here is a team with one legit stud, one middle of the road veteran, one young veteran with some pop and good switch-hitting power prospect and a bunch of roster filler.
This is going to be one of the lowest scoring teams in baseball, maybe the lowest, and there isn't much hope of the team making any serious upgrades between now and Opening Day.
2B Matt Antonelli could be a factor as a decent hitting middle infielder. OF Kellen Kulbacki might be ready in late '09 or early '10 but I'd like to see something from him at the upper levels before getting too excited, though he did have a great '08 season. 1B Kyle Blanks is a monster with big-time power but he's not quite ready for the Majors AND he's blocked by the one real star this team has. OF Cedric Hunter has talent but isn't close to being ready.
Pitching
I'll refer to the Padres official website for their rotation and closer...
1. Jake Peavy
2. Chris Young
3. Cha Seung Baek
4. Josh Geer
5. Wade LeBlanc
When you consider the possibility - heck, probability - that Peavy will be dealt in the next month this looks like an awful rotation. If he sticks around the Pads have one of the best starters in the National League to call upon every 5th day but I doubt it will do much good.
Young is a nice 2-3 starter when healthy but none of the others are all that inspiring. Geer posted nice numbers in 5 starts for the Pads but don't be fooled - PCL hitters batted .285 against him and his ERA was 4.54 in 28 games (27 starts) at Portland. Baek was once a decent prospect but he turns 29 in May and has just 59 big league games under his belt. LeBlanc is nothing to write home about either. The 24 year-old posted a 5.32 ERA at Triple-A Portland and sported an 8.02 ERA in 5 games (4 starts) for the Padres.
There is definitely room for competition here, though I suspect they'll bring in a veteran or two on Spring Training invites or incentive laden deals. They could also add volume in a Peavy deal but quantity never beats quality in the Majors.
Cesar Carrillo, Mat Latos and Will Inman are worth keeping an eye on in '09. Looks like the Pads will be needing some help.
CL. Heath Bell
Bell was lights out in '07 and the Pads had better hope he reverts to that form in '09. He was pretty good last year, just not as good as the year before. Entering '09 Bell has 2 career saves in 14 opportunities.
Nobody else in the pen does much for me. The league seems to have figured out Cla Meredith, Mike Adams is okay but notthing more and Justin Hampson isn't quite established.
Overview
The Padres have a weak lineup, a paper-thin rotation, a mediocre-at-best bullpen and a farm system with some decent players who don't appear to be Major League ready for the start of '09.
If they're not the worst team in baseball this year they'll be in the bottom three or four for sure.
KW
Henderson, Rice get into HOF
Great to see Rice finally get in...
I'm not sure why he kept gaining votes year after year but whatever, he's now where he belongs. Maybe the steroid era has made people re-think his power numbers and what they meant to his era.
Henderson was a no-brainer. I just want to know who the 5% of voters are who didn't put him on their ballot. I still don't understand why some members of the BBWAA have to stick with this "nobody should ever be a unanimous selection" crap. I've said it before and I'll say it again: just because some baseball writers were to stupid/stubborn/biased to put Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson on their ballots way-back-when doesn't mean members of the BBWAA have to uphold that stupidity in the modern day.
Hard to believe we have such "simple thinkers" in the year 2008.
Sorry to see the other three guys on my faux ballot (I don't have a real one) didn't make it:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/hof-2009-heres-who-id-vote-for.html
Andre Dawson (65.9%), Jack Morris (42.9%) and Alan Trammell (18.2%) did live to fight another day. Looks like The Hawk might have a chance but Morris and Trammell appear to be just about out of luck.
KW
Note: I'll start up with my pre-season MLB power rankings later tonight w/ a shapshot look at my preseason #30...
I'm not sure why he kept gaining votes year after year but whatever, he's now where he belongs. Maybe the steroid era has made people re-think his power numbers and what they meant to his era.
Henderson was a no-brainer. I just want to know who the 5% of voters are who didn't put him on their ballot. I still don't understand why some members of the BBWAA have to stick with this "nobody should ever be a unanimous selection" crap. I've said it before and I'll say it again: just because some baseball writers were to stupid/stubborn/biased to put Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Walter Johnson or Christy Mathewson on their ballots way-back-when doesn't mean members of the BBWAA have to uphold that stupidity in the modern day.
Hard to believe we have such "simple thinkers" in the year 2008.
Sorry to see the other three guys on my faux ballot (I don't have a real one) didn't make it:
http://thebaseballgods.blogspot.com/2008/12/hof-2009-heres-who-id-vote-for.html
Andre Dawson (65.9%), Jack Morris (42.9%) and Alan Trammell (18.2%) did live to fight another day. Looks like The Hawk might have a chance but Morris and Trammell appear to be just about out of luck.
KW
Note: I'll start up with my pre-season MLB power rankings later tonight w/ a shapshot look at my preseason #30...
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
MLB & the economy - are they really feeling the crunch already?
Lots of grumbling around MLB these days about the economy. Had a chance to talk to http://www.sabernomics.com/ author J.C. Bradbury on Sports Open Line on Newstalk 1120 KMOX in St. Louis (my real job) about what owners are saying and how that matches up with reality.
We also talked about the idea of putting a in a salary cap in Major League Baseball...
Neither of us are a big fan of the idea....
Check it out:
Part 1
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298698
Part 2
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298700
OR
http://www.kmox.com/pages/67880.php?
KW
We also talked about the idea of putting a in a salary cap in Major League Baseball...
Neither of us are a big fan of the idea....
Check it out:
Part 1
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298698
Part 2
http://www.kmox.com/episode_download.php?contentType=36&contentId=3298700
OR
http://www.kmox.com/pages/67880.php?
KW
Monday, January 5, 2009
Salary caps bite
Count owners Drayton McLane (Astros), Mark Attanasio (Brewers) and Frank Coonelly (Pirates) in amongst those who want a salary cap in MLB.
There's a shocker. Really rich guys want to be "bailed out" because of their own ineptitude. Gee, where have I heard that before?
I'm sorry but this "baseball needs a salary cap" garbage just has to stop. Really. Like now.
Here are a couple of salary cap myths that I will proceed to smash into dust...
1. Salary caps make things more fair and creates a level playing field for all teams.
Salary caps do not make a sport more "fair," as is often alleged. They do not create parity and they certainly don't do anything to make the sport more "fan friendly."
Salary caps do one thing and one thing only: guarantee a larger profit for ownership.
That's it, nothing more.
That's not a terrible thing, by the way, it's just not how the whole thing is sold to sports fans. These bazillionaire owners know you'd tell them to stick it where the sun don't shine if they told you the truth about salary caps so they feed you a line of b.s. to get you to go along with the program.
Which sport has lowered ticket/concession prices for you after getting a salary cap? What have those leagues with caps done to make your life as a fan more enjoyable?
What caps usually mean is that teams have to let some of your favorite/most popular players leave via free agency because they're capped out and can't keep them.
Man, I love when that happens to my teams!
Caps also don't account for the amount of money teams have available to spend on bonuses, front office personnel, coaches and scouts. Even if it levels the playing field for player salaries - which it does not when you consider bonus money - it does nothing of the sort for any of the other important areas of the sport.
2. Salary caps create parity
That is the biggest, steamiest pile of dog poo ever foisted upon sports fans.
Look, there is parity in the NFL for one simple reason. THEY ONLY PLAY 16 GAMES!
It's the sample size, stupid.
Anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen during a 16-game season. Hell, even the Royals can go 11-5 during a 16-game stretch. The reason there is so much turnover in terms of playoff teams in the NFL is that they play a very short schedule.
It's pure statistics. If you do an exit poll during a presidential election you're not going to get an accurate result if you only poll 16 people. If you poll 1600 people you're starting to get to the point where you can actually learn something from your polling.
Baseball will NEVER have parity like the NFL has (nor will the NHL or NBA) because they play too many games. Over 162 games the cream will eventually rise to the top. A 4-game winning streak in the NFL is the statistical equivalent to a 40-game winning streak in baseball.
It's not the cap, it's the number of games that creates parity.
Here are a couple of other factors that should be considered if you want to advocate for a salary cap in baseball:
* With a "cap" comes a "floor." Do you really think teams like Florida, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburg and Minnesota want to add $15-20 million to their payrolls to reach a "floor" that will certainly be negotiated. Maybe, but only if...
* You add in TOTAL revenue sharing like they have in the NFL. Do you really think the owners of the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers want to give away a huge chunk of their own revenue to other teams? They already chip in to revenue sharing and the luxury tax, which goes to all those teams listed above anyway (which they seem to always pocket), so do you think they're going to be thrilled about the idea of giving away even more.
The MLBPA is not the only opponent a salary cap would face. I'd bet owners would be split 50-50 on this issue - at best.
* Isn't it funny that all these super-wealthy MLB owners love the capitalist system we have in the United States of America when it comes to their non-sport businesses but they're oh-too-happy to switch over to a socialist system when it comes to their sports team?
Can't have it both ways fellas. You either want to share-and-share-alike or you don't...
There is nothing wrong with the current baseball system. The Yankees can spend all they want and if they go too far, which they always do, then they've got to write a luxury tax check on top of what they spend.
Baseball's current system does a fine job of spreading the wealth, they just need to tweak the rules so those receiving checks have to SPEND THE MONEY on talent instead of just pocketing it.
Make no mistake about it, those low payroll teams make a profit every single year.
If they want to compete at a higher level maybe they need to cut back on profit a little for a couple of years and add some to the infrastructure of their franchise. Stop giving big contracts to mediocre players for the sole purpose of trying to convince your fans you're "doing something" and hire smart baseball men to make smart decisions.
In other words, your teams stink because of YOU and the people YOU hire, not because other teams have more cash on hand...
KW
There's a shocker. Really rich guys want to be "bailed out" because of their own ineptitude. Gee, where have I heard that before?
I'm sorry but this "baseball needs a salary cap" garbage just has to stop. Really. Like now.
Here are a couple of salary cap myths that I will proceed to smash into dust...
1. Salary caps make things more fair and creates a level playing field for all teams.
Salary caps do not make a sport more "fair," as is often alleged. They do not create parity and they certainly don't do anything to make the sport more "fan friendly."
Salary caps do one thing and one thing only: guarantee a larger profit for ownership.
That's it, nothing more.
That's not a terrible thing, by the way, it's just not how the whole thing is sold to sports fans. These bazillionaire owners know you'd tell them to stick it where the sun don't shine if they told you the truth about salary caps so they feed you a line of b.s. to get you to go along with the program.
Which sport has lowered ticket/concession prices for you after getting a salary cap? What have those leagues with caps done to make your life as a fan more enjoyable?
What caps usually mean is that teams have to let some of your favorite/most popular players leave via free agency because they're capped out and can't keep them.
Man, I love when that happens to my teams!
Caps also don't account for the amount of money teams have available to spend on bonuses, front office personnel, coaches and scouts. Even if it levels the playing field for player salaries - which it does not when you consider bonus money - it does nothing of the sort for any of the other important areas of the sport.
2. Salary caps create parity
That is the biggest, steamiest pile of dog poo ever foisted upon sports fans.
Look, there is parity in the NFL for one simple reason. THEY ONLY PLAY 16 GAMES!
It's the sample size, stupid.
Anything, and I mean ANYTHING, can happen during a 16-game season. Hell, even the Royals can go 11-5 during a 16-game stretch. The reason there is so much turnover in terms of playoff teams in the NFL is that they play a very short schedule.
It's pure statistics. If you do an exit poll during a presidential election you're not going to get an accurate result if you only poll 16 people. If you poll 1600 people you're starting to get to the point where you can actually learn something from your polling.
Baseball will NEVER have parity like the NFL has (nor will the NHL or NBA) because they play too many games. Over 162 games the cream will eventually rise to the top. A 4-game winning streak in the NFL is the statistical equivalent to a 40-game winning streak in baseball.
It's not the cap, it's the number of games that creates parity.
Here are a couple of other factors that should be considered if you want to advocate for a salary cap in baseball:
* With a "cap" comes a "floor." Do you really think teams like Florida, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Pittsburg and Minnesota want to add $15-20 million to their payrolls to reach a "floor" that will certainly be negotiated. Maybe, but only if...
* You add in TOTAL revenue sharing like they have in the NFL. Do you really think the owners of the Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels and Dodgers want to give away a huge chunk of their own revenue to other teams? They already chip in to revenue sharing and the luxury tax, which goes to all those teams listed above anyway (which they seem to always pocket), so do you think they're going to be thrilled about the idea of giving away even more.
The MLBPA is not the only opponent a salary cap would face. I'd bet owners would be split 50-50 on this issue - at best.
* Isn't it funny that all these super-wealthy MLB owners love the capitalist system we have in the United States of America when it comes to their non-sport businesses but they're oh-too-happy to switch over to a socialist system when it comes to their sports team?
Can't have it both ways fellas. You either want to share-and-share-alike or you don't...
There is nothing wrong with the current baseball system. The Yankees can spend all they want and if they go too far, which they always do, then they've got to write a luxury tax check on top of what they spend.
Baseball's current system does a fine job of spreading the wealth, they just need to tweak the rules so those receiving checks have to SPEND THE MONEY on talent instead of just pocketing it.
Make no mistake about it, those low payroll teams make a profit every single year.
If they want to compete at a higher level maybe they need to cut back on profit a little for a couple of years and add some to the infrastructure of their franchise. Stop giving big contracts to mediocre players for the sole purpose of trying to convince your fans you're "doing something" and hire smart baseball men to make smart decisions.
In other words, your teams stink because of YOU and the people YOU hire, not because other teams have more cash on hand...
KW
Milton Bradley helps the Cubbies?
What the hell are the Cubbies doing? $30 million over 3-years for Milton Bradley?
Bad move, my friends, bad move.
Not only is the guy a total headcase he's also injury prone and only seems interested in himself.
Hell, there's a reason a guy as gifted a Bradley is has played for 6 teams in parts of 9 Major League seasons. The guy can play all three outfield positions, he hits for average, draws walks, has really good power and can run a little bit too but nobody wants to keep him around...
Hmm, I wonder why that is?
The crazy thing about this move for the Cubbies is that they had to move Mark DeRosa to, allegedly, clear room in the budget to give Bradley $10 million a year.
Let's see, we're gonna move a great clubhouse guy who can play pretty much anywhere on the field while providing pretty good offense so we can fit in a headcase of an outfielder and pay the headcase twice as much as the good clubhouse guy?
Boy, that headcase must be a much more productive player than the good clubhouse guy.
Okay, maybe not...
Over the last three seasons (2006-2008) DeRosa has hit .291 with 44 HR, 233 RBI and posted an .821 OPS while playing 1527 games and providing solid defense at 6 different positions.
In that same time frame Bradley hit .302 with 49 HR, 166 RBI and posted a .923 OPS when he played. Key words: "when he played." Bradley has averaged just 325 at-bats per season from '06-'08 and no better than that during his career.
In fact, Bradley has only one 500 AB season and 2008 marked only the second time he's even reached 400 AB.
Yeah, Bradley is a better/more talented player than DeRosa but is he really "better" when you factor in the 30-40 games he's going to miss? Is he really so much better than DeRosa that he deserves to be paid twice what DeRosa will make?
No and no.
So the Cubs are making this deal - paying this kind of cash - and trading off a durable, reliable all-around player based on the assumption that somehow Bradley will miraculously do in his 30's what he never did in his 20's, which is stay healthy and motivated?
Okie dokie.
Glad it's not my money and glad I'm not a Cubs fan...
KW
Bad move, my friends, bad move.
Not only is the guy a total headcase he's also injury prone and only seems interested in himself.
Hell, there's a reason a guy as gifted a Bradley is has played for 6 teams in parts of 9 Major League seasons. The guy can play all three outfield positions, he hits for average, draws walks, has really good power and can run a little bit too but nobody wants to keep him around...
Hmm, I wonder why that is?
The crazy thing about this move for the Cubbies is that they had to move Mark DeRosa to, allegedly, clear room in the budget to give Bradley $10 million a year.
Let's see, we're gonna move a great clubhouse guy who can play pretty much anywhere on the field while providing pretty good offense so we can fit in a headcase of an outfielder and pay the headcase twice as much as the good clubhouse guy?
Boy, that headcase must be a much more productive player than the good clubhouse guy.
Okay, maybe not...
Over the last three seasons (2006-2008) DeRosa has hit .291 with 44 HR, 233 RBI and posted an .821 OPS while playing 1527 games and providing solid defense at 6 different positions.
In that same time frame Bradley hit .302 with 49 HR, 166 RBI and posted a .923 OPS when he played. Key words: "when he played." Bradley has averaged just 325 at-bats per season from '06-'08 and no better than that during his career.
In fact, Bradley has only one 500 AB season and 2008 marked only the second time he's even reached 400 AB.
Yeah, Bradley is a better/more talented player than DeRosa but is he really "better" when you factor in the 30-40 games he's going to miss? Is he really so much better than DeRosa that he deserves to be paid twice what DeRosa will make?
No and no.
So the Cubs are making this deal - paying this kind of cash - and trading off a durable, reliable all-around player based on the assumption that somehow Bradley will miraculously do in his 30's what he never did in his 20's, which is stay healthy and motivated?
Okie dokie.
Glad it's not my money and glad I'm not a Cubs fan...
KW
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